Espanyol v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 13
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
4 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.49
Goals − xG
+0.02 – -0.00
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
19.5%
Draw
27.6%
Atletico Madrid win
52.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLWWDWLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 11
from 16.0 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.74–1.41 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 0.98 xGAtletico Madrid 1.00 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.41 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Clement Lenglet |
| 19' |
 Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 22' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 24' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 33' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marcos Llorente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexander Sørloth |
| 37' |
Atletico Madrid |
César Azpilicueta | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Atletico Madrid |
Conor Gallagher | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Atletico Madrid |
Samuel Lino | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 43' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 44' |
Espanyol |
Alex Kral | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 44' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 46' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | César Azpilicueta |
| 50' |
Atletico Madrid |
Alexander Sørloth | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | César Azpilicueta |
| 66' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 70' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 76' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodrigo de Paul |
| 81' |
Atletico Madrid |
Antoine Griezmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcos Llorente |
| 86' |
Atletico Madrid |
Julián Álvarez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rodrigo de Paul |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Javi Puado AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Alex Kral AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jofre Carreras AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Alejo Véliz Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edu Expósito Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando Calero Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Aguado Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Griezmann FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.21 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.10 |
| Conor Gallagher MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| César Azpilicueta DL | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Alexander Sørloth FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Giménez Sub | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Samuel Lino ML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rodrigo de Paul Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Robin Le Normand DC | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julián Álvarez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nahuel Molina Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Reinildo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Rodrigo Riquelme Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |