Espanyol v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 10 March 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 18
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 12
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 1.23
Goals − xG
+0.67 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
40.7%
Draw
27.2%
Girona win
32.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 0.33 xGGirona 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 4' |
Girona |
Bojan Miovski | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 6' |
Girona |
Bojan Miovski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 9' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 24' |
 Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 25' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 30' |
Girona |
Miguel Gutiérrez | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Girona |
Arthur | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 33' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alex Kral |
| 36' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 41' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 41' |
Girona |
Arthur | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Urko Gonzalez |
| 48' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 51' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 54' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yangel Herrera |
| 55' |
Espanyol |
Alex Kral | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Javi Puado |
| 62' |
Espanyol |
Alex Kral | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Puado |
| 73' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miguel Gutiérrez |
| 82' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld |
| 83' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Girona |
Yangel Herrera | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cristhian Stuani |
| 84' |
Girona |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 87' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yangel Herrera MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Viktor Tsygankov FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.22 |
| Iván Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Miguel Gutiérrez DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.29 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| Arthur MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Bojan Miovski FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.83 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Portu Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Juanpe Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donny van de Beek Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Kral AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Javi Puado AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.14 | 0.22 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Jofre Carreras MC | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tejero Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edu Expósito Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando Calero Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejo Véliz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |