Espanyol v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 16 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
1.03 – 1.49
Goals − xG
-1.31 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
58.0%
Draw
24.9%
Girona win
17.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.69–0.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.13 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.31 xGGirona 1.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23' |
 Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 24' |
 Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 34' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 47' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 50' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 57' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 58' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pere Milla |
| 66' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 70' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike García |
| 71' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 74' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 74' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Fernando Calero |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.29 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 83' |
Espanyol |
Urko Gonzalez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Martín |
| 87' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 92' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.49 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Iván Martín DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.26 |
| Hugo Rincón DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Arnau Martinez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Viktor Tsygankov AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Thomas Lemar AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.46 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Urko Gonzalez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| Pere Milla AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AMR | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.29 | 0.04 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kike García Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |