Espanyol v Mallorca — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 15 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 23
On target
3 – 10
Shots in box
6 – 13
xG per shot
0.30 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
1.34 – 1.17
Goals − xG
+0.33 – -0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
46.2%
Draw
24.1%
Mallorca win
29.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Mallorca are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLWDLLW last 10
scored 14
from 14.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.03 | 1-1 13% | 41% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 2.67 xGMallorca 2.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Mallorca attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Espanyol |
Omar El Hilali | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Puado |
| 12' |
 Mallorca |
Mateu Morey | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 16' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 17' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mateu Morey |
| 20' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Carlos Romero |
| 28' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fernando Calero |
| 32' |
Mallorca |
Mateu Morey | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 36' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 39' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 44' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 46' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mateo Joseph |
| 50' |
Mallorca |
Mateo Joseph | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 56' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 57' |
Mallorca |
Johan Mojica | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 59' |
Espanyol |
Charles Pickel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Pablo Torre |
| 64' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Sergi Darder |
| 68' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.59 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 70' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Samú Costa |
| 76' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Sergi Darder | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jan Virgili |
| 83' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sergi Darder |
| 87' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdón Prats |
| 88' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Pablo Maffeo |
| 94' |
Mallorca |
Martin Valjent | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdón Prats |
| 94' |
Mallorca |
Vedat Muriqi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Domenech |
Players
Mallorca
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vedat Muriqi FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 0 | 1.65 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Sergi Darder MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.42 | 0.61 |
| Martin Valjent DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Johan Mojica DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| Raíllo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Leo Román GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Manuel Morlanes MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pablo Torre MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Mateo Joseph FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Mateu Morey DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.24 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pablo Maffeo Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| Jan Virgili Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.30 |
| Abdón Prats Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Samú Costa Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Marc Domenech Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.59 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.56 | 0.64 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrhys Dolan MR | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 1.20 | 0.61 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Javi Puado ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.67 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pere Milla AMC | 47 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.25 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kike García Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén Sánchez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |