Espanyol v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
7 – 6
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.24
Goals − xG
-0.37 – -1.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
35.5%
Draw
25.4%
Osasuna win
39.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLLLLDWWL last 10
scored 12
from 15.1 xG
conceded 17
from 12.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.12 | 1-1 13% | 38% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.37 xGOsasuna 1.38 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pere Milla |
| 13' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pere Milla |
| 13' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Puado |
| 15' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 20' |
 Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Víctor Muñoz |
| 24' |
Osasuna |
Aimar Oroz | 0.11 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Catena |
| 43' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moi Gómez |
| 45' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 46' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 48' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 48' |
Osasuna |
Jon Moncayola | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Valentin Rosier |
| 52' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 67' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Javi Puado |
| 70' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 70' |
Osasuna |
Víctor Muñoz | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Valentin Rosier |
| 79' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 91' |
Osasuna |
Alejandro Catena | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Enzo Boyomo |
| 92' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Roberto Fernández |
Players
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| Ante Budimir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Lucas Torró MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Aimar Oroz FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Valentin Rosier DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Enzo Boyomo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.71 |
| Jon Moncayola DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Juan Cruz DC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Víctor Muñoz FWR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Moi Gómez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| Rubén García Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Raul García Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Benito Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike Barja Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pol Lozano DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Puado AML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0.07 | 0.55 |
| Pere Milla AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| Tyrhys Dolan AMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Kike García FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Edu Expósito DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.57 | 0.96 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Urko Gonzalez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |