Espanyol v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 24 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 22
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 16
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.84
Goals − xG
+0.83 – -0.83
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Espanyol win
47.3%
Draw
25.1%
Sevilla win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWWWLLWWLD last 10
scored 14
from 10.1 xG
conceded 13
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.50–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.09 | 1-1 12% | 47% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Espanyol 1.17 xGSevilla 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Espanyol attacking right
Sevilla attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 3' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 6' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 15' |
 Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Djibril Sow |
| 15' |
Sevilla |
Ruben Vargas | 0.10 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 16' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 19' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 20' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Peque |
| 29' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Adnan Januzaj |
| 35' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 35' |
Sevilla |
Gabriel Suazo | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 37' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 40' |
Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.25 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Juanlu Sanchez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Akor Adams |
| 56' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfon |
| 62' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 63' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 67' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juanlu Sanchez |
| 67' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kike García |
| 75' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 75' |
Sevilla |
Alfon | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 83' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 83' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Urko Gonzalez |
| 85' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Goal | Gabriel Suazo |
| 89' |
Sevilla |
Marcão | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 92' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alfon |
| 95' |
Sevilla |
Akor Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Sánchez |
| 97' |
Sevilla |
Nemanja Gudelj | 0.13 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcão DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Akor Adams FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| Juanlu Sanchez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Peque AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Batista Mendy DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Djibril Sow DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 57 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.12 | 0.72 |
| Ruben Vargas AML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Alfon Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.07 | 0.37 |
| Adnan Januzaj AMR | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| Nemanja Gudelj Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucien Agoume Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Alexis Sánchez Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrhys Dolan MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Pere Milla FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Kike García FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.49 |
| Ramón Terrats ML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| Edu Expósito MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Pol Lozano Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |