Estoril v Casa Pia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Estoril

14:00

Casa Pia

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 322h before kick-off

Estoril win

54.8%

model 52.7%

Draw

22.6%

model 23.1%

Casa Pia win

22.6%

model 24.2%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 12.1%
1-1 10.9%
2-1 9.6%
2-0 9.4%
0-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.9%	Under 2.5	50.1%
BTTS yes	51.0%	BTTS no	49.0%
Estoril 1+	80.8%	Estoril 2+	49.0%
Casa Pia 1+	64.0%	Casa Pia 2+	27.3%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

77/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Estoril (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 42%

51.9% fair odds 1.93

moderate signal · 897 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Estoril carry the stronger rating, 1415 Elo against 1335.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Estoril have an estimated 54.8% win probability, against 22.6% for Casa Pia and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.65 for Estoril and 1.02 for Casa Pia.

Why Estoril

Estoril carry the stronger rating, 1415 Elo against 1335.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Casa Pia can win

Nothing in the data singles out Casa Pia.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Estoril, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Casa Pia, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Estoril: 45% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Casa Pia: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Estoril are the model's most likely outcome at 54.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 12.1%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	532324	1.65–1.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	572221	1.80–0.99	1-0 12%	53%	52%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win	57.2%	54.1%	42.2%	1.28×	1.85
Draw	21.7%	24.4%	26.6%	0.92×	4.09
Casa Pia to win	21.1%	24.4%	31.4%	0.78×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & not both score	31.8%	29.7%	26.1%	1.14×	3.37
Estoril & both teams score	25.4%	25.2%	16.2%	1.55×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Casa Pia & not both score	11.0%	13.3%	19.8%	0.67×	7.55
Casa Pia & both teams score	10.1%	13.3%	11.7%	1.13×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	6.3%	1.32×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril & over 1.5	45.5%	45.2%	31.5%	1.43×	2.21
Estoril & under 3.5	37.6%	34.9%	29.2%	1.19×	2.87
Estoril & over 2.5	35.5%	34.9%	24.7%	1.41×	2.87
Estoril & under 2.5	21.7%	21.7%	17.6%	1.23×	4.62
Estoril & over 3.5	19.6%	18.0%	13.1%	1.37×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Casa Pia & under 3.5	16.1%	18.0%	25.5%	0.71×	5.56
Casa Pia & over 1.5	14.4%	12.9%	22.4%	0.57×	7.77
Estoril & under 1.5	11.7%	12.9%	10.8%	1.19×	7.77
Casa Pia & over 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	17.3%	0.74×	7.77
Casa Pia & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	14.2%	0.55×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	9.6%	0.82×	12.70
Casa Pia & under 1.5	6.7%	7.9%	9.1%	0.86×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.3%	1.24×	12.70
Casa Pia & over 3.5	5.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1UP)	69.9%	70.2%	—	—	1.43
Casa Pia (1UP)	38.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2UP)	57.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Casa Pia (2UP)	21.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win 2nd half	45.6%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
2nd half drawn	33.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Casa Pia to win 2nd half	21.0%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia (+2.5)	85.2%	88.5%	89.6%	0.99×	1.13
Estoril (+0.5)	78.9%	78.4%	68.6%	1.14×	1.28
Casa Pia (+1.5)	67.8%	68.7%	77.7%	0.88×	1.46
Estoril (-0.5)	57.2%	57.0%	42.2%	1.35×	1.75
Casa Pia (+0.5)	42.8%	43.0%	57.8%	0.74×	2.33
Estoril (-1.5)	32.2%	31.3%	22.3%	1.41×	3.20
Casa Pia (-0.5)	21.1%	21.6%	31.4%	0.69×	4.64
Estoril (-2.5)	14.8%	11.5%	10.4%	1.11×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia to concede	83.5%	81.3%	74.0%	1.10×	1.23
Casa Pia clean sheet	16.5%	18.7%	26.0%	0.72×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia clean sheet in 1st half	46.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Casa Pia to concede in 1st half	54.0%	49.4%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia under 6.5 corners	83.8%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Casa Pia under 5.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Casa Pia over 2.5 corners	73.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Casa Pia under 4.5 corners	60.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Casa Pia over 3.5 corners	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Casa Pia under 3.5 corners	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Casa Pia over 4.5 corners	39.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Casa Pia under 2.5 corners	27.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Casa Pia over 5.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Casa Pia over 6.5 corners	16.2%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia under 3.5 goals	98.2%	97.5%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Casa Pia under 2.5 goals	92.2%	92.3%	88.9%	1.04×	1.08
Casa Pia under 1.5 goals	74.1%	72.0%	65.4%	1.10×	1.39
Casa Pia over 0.5 goals	62.7%	63.0%	67.7%	0.93×	1.59
Casa Pia under 0.5 goals	37.3%	37.0%	32.3%	1.15×	2.70
Casa Pia over 1.5 goals	25.9%	28.0%	34.6%	0.81×	3.57
Casa Pia over 2.5 goals	7.8%	7.7%	11.1%	0.69×	13.03
Casa Pia over 3.5 goals	1.8%	2.5%	3.9%	0.63×	40.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia under 1.5 in 1st half	94.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Casa Pia under 0.5 in 1st half	67.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.46
Casa Pia over 0.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.7%	—	—	3.16
Casa Pia over 1.5 in 1st half	6.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.34

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (away no bet)	72.6%	68.6%	61.3%	1.12×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.4%	31.4%	38.7%	0.81×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia even goals	56.9%	56.9%	58.6%	0.97×	1.76
Casa Pia odd goals	43.1%	43.1%	41.4%	1.04×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.7%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	35.3%	41.8%	—	—	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.5%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Estoril to score 2+ in a row	46.2%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Estoril to score 3+ in a row	19.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Casa Pia to score 2+ in a row	18.0%	16.4%	—	—	6.12
Casa Pia to score 3+ in a row	3.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.17

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril corners (+3.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Estoril corners (+2.5)	82.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Casa Pia corners (+3.5)	77.5%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Estoril corners (+1.5)	74.6%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Casa Pia corners (+2.5)	68.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Casa Pia corners (+1.5)	57.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Estoril corners (-1.5)	42.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Estoril corners (-2.5)	31.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Casa Pia corners (-1.5)	25.4%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Estoril corners (-3.5)	22.5%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Casa Pia corners (-2.5)	17.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Casa Pia corners (-3.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	46.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	29.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	24.6%	25.6%	—	—	3.90

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.3%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	75.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	64.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	57.1%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	53.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	42.9%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	35.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	24.6%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	17.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	11.7%	11.5%	10.8%	1.06×	8.73
1-1	10.2%	11.5%	11.0%	1.04×	8.73
2-0	10.0%	7.4%	7.0%	1.07×	13.48
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.48
0-1	6.7%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
1-2	5.4%	7.4%	7.7%	0.96×	13.48
3-0	6.0%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	8.3%	0.20×	58.46
0-2	3.0%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.47
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.48
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.49
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.49
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.49
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.47
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	11.06×	58.49
4-0	2.7%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.47
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.77×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.49
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril leading at HT (DNB)	70.5%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Casa Pia leading at HT (DNB)	29.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.48

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw (1X)	78.9%	75.6%	68.6%	1.10×	1.32
Estoril or Casa Pia (12)	78.4%	75.6%	73.4%	1.03×	1.32
Casa Pia or draw (X2)	42.8%	45.9%	57.8%	0.79×	2.18

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw at HT	82.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Estoril or Casa Pia at HT	59.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Casa Pia or draw at HT	58.4%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw (1UP)	78.9%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Casa Pia or draw (1UP)	42.8%	52.7%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril or draw in 2nd half	79.0%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Estoril or Casa Pia in 2nd half	66.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Casa Pia or draw in 2nd half	54.4%	54.7%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	61.4%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	38.6%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (DNB)	73.0%	71.4%	57.4%	1.25×	1.40
Casa Pia (DNB)	27.0%	28.6%	42.6%	0.67×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score first	61.1%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Casa Pia to score first	33.4%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.7%	51.4%	48.1%	1.07×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.3%	48.6%	51.9%	0.94×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.5%	41.6%	37.2%	1.12×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.9%	38.5%	37.9%	1.02×	2.60
Not both score & over 2.5	11.4%	12.3%	14.2%	0.87×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	10.2%	12.3%	11.0%	1.12×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.6%	85.9%	1.00×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.4%	14.1%	1.02×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.5%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	28.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	59.1%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	23.4%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.4%	10.7%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.5%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.5%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.0%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	45.0%	42.8%	—	—	2.33

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.4%	45.8%	1.04×	2.11
4-6 goals	28.2%	26.5%	27.7%	0.96×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.9%	22.8%	26.0%	0.88×	4.38
7+ goals	2.4%	1.8%	0.9%	1.98×	54.56

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia to score exactly 0	37.3%	36.0%	32.3%	1.11×	2.78
Casa Pia to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	33.2%	1.08×	2.78
Casa Pia to score exactly 2	18.2%	19.6%	23.6%	0.83×	5.11
Casa Pia to score 3+	7.8%	8.5%	11.1%	0.76×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score exactly 1	29.7%	26.5%	31.5%	0.84×	3.77
Estoril to score 3+	27.0%	26.5%	19.2%	1.38×	3.77
Estoril to score exactly 2	26.8%	26.5%	23.6%	1.12×	3.77
Estoril to score exactly 0	16.5%	18.9%	26.0%	0.73×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril leading at HT	41.6%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT	41.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Casa Pia leading at HT	17.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.43

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril -1: 2	42.8%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Estoril -1: 1	32.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Estoril -1: X	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia (0:1)	42.8%	42.7%	57.8%	0.74×	2.34
Estoril (0:1)	32.2%	30.0%	22.3%	1.35×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	25.0%	27.0%	20.1%	1.34×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia (0:2)	67.8%	72.2%	77.7%	0.93×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.4%	15.3%	12.1%	1.27×	6.54
Estoril (0:2)	14.8%	11.0%	10.4%	1.06×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia (0:3)	85.2%	90.7%	89.6%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	9.2%	5.8%	6.0%	0.97×	17.13
Estoril (0:3)	5.6%	5.8%	4.5%	1.30×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia (0:4)	94.4%	94.7%	95.5%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.8%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.23
Estoril (0:4)	1.8%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.47

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (1:0)	78.9%	78.4%	68.6%	1.14×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	14.0%	12.8%	17.8%	0.72×	7.80
Casa Pia (1:0)	7.1%	6.9%	13.8%	0.50×	14.45

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril (2:0)	92.9%	93.9%	86.2%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.2%	6.4%	7.1%	0.91×	15.51
Casa Pia (2:0)	1.9%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	44.25

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.4%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	28.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	23.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to concede	62.7%	63.4%	67.7%	0.94×	1.58
Estoril clean sheet	37.3%	36.6%	32.3%	1.13×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril clean sheet in 1st half	67.4%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Estoril to concede in 1st half	32.6%	31.4%	—	—	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril over 2.5 corners	81.8%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Estoril under 6.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Estoril over 3.5 corners	67.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Estoril under 5.5 corners	61.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Estoril over 4.5 corners	52.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Estoril under 4.5 corners	47.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Estoril over 5.5 corners	38.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Estoril under 3.5 corners	32.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Estoril over 6.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Estoril under 2.5 corners	18.2%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 3.5 goals	89.1%	87.3%	93.5%	0.93×	1.15
Estoril over 0.5 goals	83.5%	82.1%	74.0%	1.11×	1.22
Estoril under 2.5 goals	73.0%	74.2%	80.8%	0.92×	1.35
Estoril over 1.5 goals	53.8%	53.3%	42.7%	1.25×	1.88
Estoril under 1.5 goals	46.2%	46.7%	57.3%	0.82×	2.14
Estoril over 2.5 goals	27.0%	25.8%	19.2%	1.35×	3.87
Estoril under 0.5 goals	16.5%	17.9%	26.0%	0.69×	5.59
Estoril over 3.5 goals	10.9%	12.7%	6.5%	1.96×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril under 1.5 in 1st half	81.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Estoril under 0.5 in 1st half	46.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Estoril over 0.5 in 1st half	54.0%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Estoril over 1.5 in 1st half	18.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	50.6%	51.6%	45.9%	1.12×	1.94
Casa Pia (home no bet)	49.4%	48.4%	54.1%	0.89×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril even goals	51.4%	50.6%	54.6%	0.93×	1.98
Estoril odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.9%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	24.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	12.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-0	9.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
Any other HT score	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
HT 0-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril at HT / Estoril at FT	35.4%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
Draw at HT / Estoril at FT	19.1%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.9%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Casa Pia at HT / Casa Pia at FT	10.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Casa Pia at FT	9.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.62
Estoril at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Casa Pia at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Casa Pia at HT / Estoril at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Estoril at HT / Casa Pia at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to score last	61.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Casa Pia to score last	33.5%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
No goal scored	5.5%	7.4%	—	—	13.43

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Estoril to lead by 1 at any time	69.9%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.0%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Estoril to lead by 2 at any time	38.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Casa Pia to lead by 1 at any time	38.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Estoril to lead by 3 at any time	17.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Casa Pia to lead by 2 at any time	11.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Casa Pia to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	61.48

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril most corners	53.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Casa Pia most corners	35.4%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	88.1%	87.4%	90.0%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.5%	78.6%	83.2%	0.95×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.7%	72.4%	73.3%	0.99×	1.38
2-5 goals	69.6%	69.0%	70.3%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	63.9%	63.4%	65.4%	0.97×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.0%	63.4%	63.5%	1.00×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.4%	53.2%	50.5%	1.05×	1.88
3-5 goals	46.4%	48.7%	47.6%	1.02×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.7%	45.8%	1.06×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.7%	43.6%	42.5%	1.03×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.8%	39.2%	40.8%	0.96×	2.55
4-6 goals	28.2%	30.3%	27.7%	1.09×	3.31
4-5 goals	24.2%	24.5%	24.7%	0.99×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.7%	14.9%	9.9%	1.50×	6.72
7+ goals	2.4%	2.6%	0.9%	2.75×	39.22

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril never behind	56.1%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Casa Pia never behind	24.6%	24.5%	—	—	4.07

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	48.8%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	51.2%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.6%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.4%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.5%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.5%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	93.7%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	96.1%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	84.9%	82.4%	89.3%	0.92×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	77.3%	74.0%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.4%	66.2%	71.6%	0.93×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.8%	52.5%	51.3%	1.02×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.2%	47.5%	48.7%	0.98×	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	30.6%	33.8%	28.4%	1.19×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	22.7%	26.0%	0.87×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	15.1%	17.6%	10.7%	1.65×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	3.9%	2.00×	12.93
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	6.3%	1.22×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.5%	97.2%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.0%	92.5%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.1%	81.1%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.8%	67.4%	66.4%	1.02×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	60.7%	62.1%	63.1%	0.98×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	39.3%	37.9%	36.9%	1.03×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.2%	32.6%	33.6%	0.97×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.9%	18.9%	13.0%	1.46×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	7.0%	7.5%	4.1%	1.82×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.5%	2.8%	1.0%	2.90×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.6%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.4%	11.0%	—	—	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.4%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	52.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	47.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia not to score in both halves	85.4%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Estoril not to score in both halves	65.3%	70.3%	—	—	1.42
Estoril to score in both halves	34.7%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
Casa Pia to score in both halves	14.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.96

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.7%	53.9%	48.1%	1.12×	1.85
Only Estoril scores	31.8%	33.3%	26.1%	1.28×	3.00
Only Casa Pia scores	11.0%	10.9%	19.8%	0.55×	9.15
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	6.3%	1.13×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	22.9%	0.99×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.5%	17.4%	19.8%	0.88×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	15.5%	17.4%	17.9%	0.97×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.7%	7.6%	7.0%	1.10×	13.08
6 or more goals	6.4%	7.6%	3.9%	1.98×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	6.3%	1.21×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	47.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.5%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	19.6%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia not to win both halves	96.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Estoril not to win both halves	81.2%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Estoril to win both halves	18.8%	15.9%	—	—	6.29
Casa Pia to win both halves	3.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.73

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril to win either half	68.4%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Casa Pia to win neither half	65.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Casa Pia to win either half	34.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Estoril to win neither half	31.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Casa Pia not to win to nil	89.0%	88.2%	80.2%	1.10×	1.13
Estoril not to win to nil	68.2%	69.7%	73.9%	0.94×	1.44
Estoril to win to nil	31.8%	30.3%	26.1%	1.16×	3.30
Casa Pia to win to nil	11.0%	11.8%	19.8%	0.59×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Estoril by 1	25.0%	27.8%	20.1%	1.39×	3.59
Draw	21.7%	24.1%	26.6%	0.91×	4.14
Estoril by 2	17.4%	16.9%	12.1%	1.40×	5.91
Estoril by 3+	14.8%	11.8%	10.4%	1.14×	8.47
Casa Pia by 1	14.0%	11.8%	17.8%	0.66×	8.47
Casa Pia by 2	5.2%	7.3%	7.1%	1.02×	13.79
Casa Pia by 3+	1.9%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	37.02