Everton v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 August 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 10
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.41 – +1.21
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
46.9%
Draw
24.5%
Brighton and Hove Albion win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLWLLWLD last 10
scored 19
from 19.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.21 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.41 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 8' |
 Brighton and Hove Albion |
João Pedro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Danny Welbeck |
| 11' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 15' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Lewis Dunk | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | James Milner |
| 16' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 19' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Yankuba Minteh |
| 27' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yankuba Minteh |
| 28' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 55' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Danny Welbeck | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mats Wieffer |
| 58' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ashley Young |
| 58' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Pedro |
| 66' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Kaoru Mitoma | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Milner |
| 71' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Milner |
| 86' |
Brighton and Hove Albion |
Simon Adingra | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Danny Welbeck |
Players
Brighton and Hove Albion
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaoru Mitoma AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.24 | 0.00 | 1.41 |
| Danny Welbeck FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.22 | 0.12 | 1.48 |
| Jason Steele GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jack Hinshelwood DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Joël Veltman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Mats Wieffer DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.10 |
| João Pedro AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.38 | 0.51 |
| James Milner DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.18 |
| Lewis Dunk DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yankuba Minteh AMR | 46 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Simon Adingra Sub | 44 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Adam Webster Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Billy Gilmour Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Yasin Ayari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dwight McNeil AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Jack Harrison AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.27 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Young DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Iliman Ndiaye Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mason Holgate Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |