Everton v Coquimbo Unido — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 22 May 2026 · CHI-Primera Division · 2627
CHI-Primera Division
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
25.1%
Draw
27.5%
Coquimbo Unido win
47.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 0.67–1.07 | 0-1 21% | 25% | 30% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Shot-level data has not been ingested for this match yet. Run
python -m pipeline.ingest_understat to fill it in.