Everton v Ipswich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 3 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 12
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 6
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.33 – 0.06
Goals − xG
+1.19 – +0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
58.1%
Draw
23.5%
Ipswich win
18.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Ipswich are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLLLWLL last 10
scored 9
from 10.0 xG
conceded 25
from 20.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.96–0.84 | 1-0 12% | 53% | 49% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.81 xGIpswich 1.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Ipswich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jarrad Branthwaite |
| 11' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 14' |
Ipswich |
Liam Delap | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
Ipswich |
Omari Hutchinson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Conor Chaplin |
| 24' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Goal | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 34' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nathan Patterson |
| 36' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Conor Chaplin |
| 38' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Patterson |
| 38' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omari Hutchinson |
| 40' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cameron Burgess |
| 43' |
Ipswich |
Dara O'Shea | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Julio Enciso |
| 57' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Liam Delap |
| 75' |
Ipswich |
Julio Enciso | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | George Hirst |
| 78' |
Ipswich |
George Hirst | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Goal | — |
| 88' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Ipswich |
Kalvin Phillips | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Jake O'Brien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.27 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| Nathan Patterson DR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.13 |
| Dwight McNeil AMR | 81 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Beto FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Young Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssef Chermiti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Ipswich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Enciso AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.29 |
| Dara O'Shea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Omari Hutchinson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.22 | 0.25 |
| Luke Woolfenden DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Jacob Greaves DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Cameron Burgess DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Alex Palmer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jack Taylor DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Liam Delap FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Sam Morsy DMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Conor Chaplin AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| George Hirst Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.06 | 0.67 |
| Kalvin Phillips Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jack Clarke Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Cajuste Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Axel Tuanzebe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |