Everton v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 24 April 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 23
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
13 – 15
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
1.52 – 0.23
Goals − xG
+0.06 – -1.87
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
26.9%
Draw
22.0%
Liverpool win
51.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.36–1.94 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.94 xGLiverpool 1.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 9' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Everton |
Ben Godfrey | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 16' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.37 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 19' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 26' |
Everton |
Ben Godfrey | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 26' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 26' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.46 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 34' |
Liverpool |
Darwin Núñez | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 43' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Darwin Núñez |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Darwin Núñez |
| 44' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 49' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominik Szoboszlai |
| 50' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 51' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Virgil van Dijk |
| 52' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 54' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 56' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 57' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Goal | Dwight McNeil |
| 61' |
Liverpool |
Virgil van Dijk | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Andrew Robertson |
| 63' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 64' |
Everton |
Ben Godfrey | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 66' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harvey Elliott |
| 68' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Andrew Robertson |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 80' |
Liverpool |
Trent Alexander-Arnold | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jarell Quansah |
| 88' |
Everton |
Ashley Young | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 89' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 94' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.51 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Godfrey DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.16 | 0.57 | 0.29 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Jack Harrison MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.37 | 0.07 |
| James Garner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ashley Young Sub | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Amadou Onana Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Youssef Chermiti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Díaz FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.27 | 1.22 |
| Darwin Núñez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.45 | 1.04 |
| Mohamed Salah FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.40 | 1.24 |
| Alexis Mac Allister MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.07 | 1.22 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.62 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.78 |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Alisson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Curtis Jones MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.54 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.60 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Jarell Quansah Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Wataru Endo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Joseph Gomez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |