Everton v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 29 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
9 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.62 – -0.17
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
40.2%
Draw
28.7%
Nottingham Forest win
31.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.02 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 0.62 xGNottingham Forest 2.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 10' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 12' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 14' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Elanga |
| 21' |
Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Ashley Young |
| 26' |
Everton |
Armando Broja | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 30' |
Everton |
Armando Broja | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 43' |
Everton |
Armando Broja | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 46' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 50' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anthony Elanga |
| 57' |
Everton |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Chris Wood |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Neco Williams | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' | Nottingham Forest | Ramón Sosa | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 73' |
Everton |
Orel Mangala | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nathan Patterson |
| 77' |
Everton |
Jesper Lindstrom | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 80' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 82' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 87' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jarrad Branthwaite |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Anthony Elanga | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jota Silva |
| 90' | Nottingham Forest | Taiwo Awoniyi | 0.27 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.44 | 0.51 | 1.41 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Nicolás Domínguez DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Morato DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Neco Williams DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.48 |
| Chris Wood FW | 78 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.13 | 0.62 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.33 | 0.61 |
| Ramón Sosa AML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Willy Boly Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jota Silva Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Harry Toffolo Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.17 | 0.32 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| Armando Broja FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Idrissa Gueye MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ashley Young DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.04 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Beto Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |