Everton v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.30
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 1.04
Goals − xG
-1.42 – +0.91
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
45.1%
Draw
27.2%
Tottenham Hotspur win
27.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.47–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.55–1.51 | 1-1 11% | 59% | 61% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.42 xGTottenham Hotspur 2.09 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Tottenham Hotspur attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beto |
| 2' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Goal | Rodrigo Bentancur |
| 23' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 34' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 47' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Garner |
| 48' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Rodrigo Bentancur | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Micky van de Ven | 0.60 | From Corner | — | Goal | Pedro Porro |
| 53' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.57 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mohammed Kudus | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Richarlison | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 72' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 73' |
Everton |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 76' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 77' |
Everton |
Merlin Röhl | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 81' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 88' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pape Sarr | 0.64 | Open Play | — | Goal | Richarlison |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0.10 | 0.55 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.52 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.46 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Beto FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.39 | 0.97 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Bentancur DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.27 | 0.64 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.05 |
| Kevin Danso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Palhinha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brennan Johnson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djed Spence DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohammed Kudus AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Xavi Simons AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Richarlison Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.64 | 1.05 |
| Pape Sarr Sub | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Mathys Tel Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |