Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 7 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 12
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
1.25 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.66 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
55.6%
Draw
24.8%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
19.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–0.87 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–0.96 | 1-0 13% | 42% | 47% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.66 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.59 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 16' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James Tarkowski |
| 21' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 21' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 28' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.55 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | James Garner |
| 30' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jhon Arias |
| 34' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 34' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 34' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 43' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Yerson Mosquera |
| 44' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tolu Arokodare |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | André |
| 52' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 57' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 64' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 66' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 66' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Iroegbunam |
| 68' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 74' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Bueno |
| 94' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Hugo Bueno |
| 96' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Bueno |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jack Grealish FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| Tim Iroegbunam MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.64 | 0.21 |
| James Garner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.59 | 0.20 |
| Dwight McNeil FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.23 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Harrison Armstrong MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Keane DC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Beto Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nathan Patterson Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateus Mané MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Tolu Arokodare FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Hugo Bueno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.32 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.29 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jackson Tchatchoua DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.34 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jhon Arias MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| André Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.32 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen Sub | 21 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pedro Lima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |