Everton v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 2
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+2.50 – -0.85
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Everton win
44.9%
Draw
25.3%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
29.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.20 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 55% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Everton 1.50 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Everton attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
João Gomes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 7' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 9' |
 Everton |
Ashley Young | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 19' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 26' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 28' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matt Doherty |
| 30' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matt Doherty |
| 32' |
Everton |
Orel Mangala | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 32' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Everton |
Dwight McNeil | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Orel Mangala |
| 43' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Dwight McNeil |
| 47' |
Everton |
Abdoulaye Doucouré | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.00 | From Corner | — | Own Goal | — |
| 48' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matt Doherty |
| 56' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jordan Pickford |
| 62' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | João Gomes |
| 71' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Craig Dawson | 0.00 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 79' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 86' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Lindstrom |
| 87' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 92' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.52 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ashley Young DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Orel Mangala DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Dwight McNeil AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
| Jack Harrison Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.77 |
| Jesper Lindstrom Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Harrison Armstrong Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.75 | 0.04 | 0.80 |
| Matheus Cunha AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| João Gomes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.53 |
| Mario Lemina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Craig Dawson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matt Doherty DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| Santiago Bueno DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Gomes Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Toti Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommy Doyle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |