Fakel Voronezh v Lokomotiv Moscow — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Fakel Voronezh

08:15

Lokomotiv Moscow

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 830h before kick-off

Fakel Voronezh win

27.3%

model 25.6%

Draw

31.6%

model 32.6%

Lokomotiv Moscow win

41.1%

model 41.7%

273241

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.5%
0-0 14.4%
0-1 14.0%
1-0 9.9%
0-2 9.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	33.3%	Under 2.5	66.7%
BTTS yes	41.3%	BTTS no	58.7%
Fakel Voronezh 1+	57.8%	Fakel Voronezh 2+	21.4%
Lokomotiv Moscow 1+	69.1%	Lokomotiv Moscow 2+	32.8%

Expected goals 0.86 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

75/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Lokomotiv Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1336.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Lokomotiv Moscow have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for the draw and 27.3% for Fakel Voronezh. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.86 for Fakel Voronezh and 1.17 for Lokomotiv Moscow.

Why Fakel Voronezh

Nothing in the data singles out Fakel Voronezh.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.6%. A combined 2.04 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Lokomotiv Moscow can win

Lokomotiv Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1515 Elo against 1336.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Fakel Voronezh, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Lokomotiv Moscow, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fakel Voronezh: 46% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Lokomotiv Moscow: 52% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Lokomotiv Moscow are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Confidence 75/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	193348	0.66–1.20	0-1 17%	28%	35%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow to win	47.7%	47.4%	28.2%	1.68×	2.11
Draw	33.1%	30.4%	27.8%	1.09×	3.29
Fakel Voronezh to win	19.2%	19.4%	44.2%	0.44×	5.16

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow & not both score	34.8%	29.7%	14.9%	1.99×	3.36
Draw & not both score	16.9%	17.9%	7.4%	2.43×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	16.2%	17.9%	20.7%	0.87×	5.58
Fakel Voronezh & not both score	13.4%	13.3%	25.6%	0.52×	7.54
Lokomotiv Moscow & both teams score	12.9%	13.3%	13.5%	0.98×	7.54
Fakel Voronezh & both teams score	5.8%	8.4%	18.8%	0.45×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow & under 3.5	40.5%	40.3%	20.7%	1.95×	2.48
Draw & under 2.5	30.4%	30.8%	22.1%	1.40×	3.24
Draw & under 3.5	30.4%	30.8%	22.1%	1.40×	3.24
Lokomotiv Moscow & over 1.5	30.3%	30.8%	20.7%	1.49×	3.24
Lokomotiv Moscow & under 2.5	28.6%	26.0%	11.9%	2.20×	3.84
Lokomotiv Moscow & over 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.6%	1.09×	5.56
Fakel Voronezh & under 3.5	17.3%	18.0%	30.9%	0.58×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	7.4%	2.44×	5.56
Lokomotiv Moscow & under 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	7.8%	2.32×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.2%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Fakel Voronezh & under 2.5	12.5%	12.9%	18.4%	0.70×	7.77
Fakel Voronezh & over 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	33.5%	0.38×	7.77
Fakel Voronezh & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	10.8%	0.73×	12.70
Lokomotiv Moscow & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.8%	1.01×	12.70
Fakel Voronezh & over 2.5	6.7%	7.9%	26.0%	0.30×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	2.7%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	2.7%	4.8%	5.9%	0.81×	20.93
Fakel Voronezh & over 3.5	1.9%	4.8%	13.5%	0.35×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (1UP)	58.2%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Fakel Voronezh (1UP)	31.9%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (2UP)	47.7%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Fakel Voronezh (2UP)	19.2%	17.7%	—	—	5.65

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	44.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Lokomotiv Moscow to win 2nd half	39.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Fakel Voronezh to win 2nd half	16.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.24

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (+2.5)	98.9%	96.3%	89.6%	1.08×	1.04
Lokomotiv Moscow (+1.5)	94.5%	92.1%	77.3%	1.19×	1.09
Lokomotiv Moscow (+0.5)	80.8%	82.4%	55.8%	1.48×	1.21
Fakel Voronezh (+0.5)	52.3%	52.4%	71.8%	0.73×	1.91
Lokomotiv Moscow (-0.5)	47.7%	47.6%	28.2%	1.69×	2.10
Fakel Voronezh (-0.5)	19.2%	17.6%	44.2%	0.40×	5.68
Fakel Voronezh (-1.5)	5.5%	7.9%	22.7%	0.35×	12.66
Fakel Voronezh (-2.5)	1.1%	3.7%	10.4%	0.36×	26.98

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow clean sheet	51.7%	55.8%	22.1%	2.53×	1.79
Lokomotiv Moscow to concede	48.3%	44.2%	77.9%	0.57×	2.26

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow clean sheet in 1st half	75.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Lokomotiv Moscow to concede in 1st half	24.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow under 6.5 corners	87.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Lokomotiv Moscow under 5.5 corners	77.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Lokomotiv Moscow over 2.5 corners	71.5%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Lokomotiv Moscow under 4.5 corners	64.1%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Lokomotiv Moscow over 3.5 corners	53.0%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Lokomotiv Moscow under 3.5 corners	47.0%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Lokomotiv Moscow over 4.5 corners	35.9%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Lokomotiv Moscow under 2.5 corners	28.5%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
Lokomotiv Moscow over 5.5 corners	22.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Lokomotiv Moscow over 6.5 corners	12.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow under 3.5 goals	96.7%	97.5%	96.9%	1.01×	1.03
Lokomotiv Moscow under 2.5 goals	88.0%	87.9%	88.8%	0.99×	1.14
Lokomotiv Moscow over 0.5 goals	69.8%	68.0%	67.3%	1.01×	1.47
Lokomotiv Moscow under 1.5 goals	66.4%	68.0%	70.1%	0.97×	1.47
Lokomotiv Moscow over 1.5 goals	33.6%	32.0%	29.9%	1.07×	3.12
Lokomotiv Moscow under 0.5 goals	30.2%	32.0%	32.7%	0.98×	3.12
Lokomotiv Moscow over 2.5 goals	12.0%	12.1%	11.2%	1.08×	8.26
Lokomotiv Moscow over 3.5 goals	3.3%	2.5%	3.1%	0.80×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half	91.6%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Lokomotiv Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half	62.0%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Lokomotiv Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half	38.0%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Lokomotiv Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half	8.4%	5.9%	—	—	16.94

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	63.3%	62.1%	38.6%	1.61×	1.61
Fakel Voronezh (away no bet)	36.7%	37.9%	61.4%	0.62×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow even goals	54.6%	52.8%	53.4%	0.99×	1.89
Lokomotiv Moscow odd goals	45.4%	47.2%	46.6%	1.01×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.7%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.3%	7.0%	—	—	14.27

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	57.0%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Not both halves under 1.5	43.0%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	38.2%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Lokomotiv Moscow to score 2+ in a row	29.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	11.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
Fakel Voronezh to score 2+ in a row	10.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Lokomotiv Moscow to score 3+ in a row	9.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.61
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+ in a row	1.8%	2.5%	—	—	39.33

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh corners (+3.5)	90.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Fakel Voronezh corners (+2.5)	83.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (+3.5)	80.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Fakel Voronezh corners (+1.5)	75.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (+2.5)	71.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (+1.5)	60.3%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Fakel Voronezh corners (-1.5)	39.7%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Fakel Voronezh corners (-2.5)	28.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (-1.5)	25.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Fakel Voronezh corners (-3.5)	19.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (-2.5)	16.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Lokomotiv Moscow corners (-3.5)	9.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	52.5%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	29.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.4%	22.7%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	87.6%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.6%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.6%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.8%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	59.6%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	52.5%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	47.5%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	40.4%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.2%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	26.4%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	18.4%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	12.4%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	17.5%	13.8%	7.8%	1.77×	7.26
0-0	16.9%	13.8%	7.4%	1.87×	7.27
1-1	13.6%	11.5%	14.9%	0.77×	8.73
0-2	11.2%	11.4%	4.3%	2.67×	8.74
1-0	9.1%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.47
1-2	7.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.10×	13.47
0-3	4.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.50
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.52
1-3	2.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.51
1-4	0.9%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.52
2-0	3.4%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	58.50
2-1	4.1%	1.7%	8.8%	0.19×	58.50
2-2	2.4%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.51
2-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.52
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.09×	58.52
3-0	0.7%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.52
3-1	0.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.52
3-2	0.5%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.52
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.52
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.52
4-0	0.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.52
4-1	0.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.52
4-2	0.1%	1.7%	0.8%	2.09×	58.52
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.36×	58.52
Any other score	0.8%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow leading at HT (DNB)	65.2%	73.8%	—	—	1.35
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT (DNB)	34.8%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow or draw (X2)	80.8%	80.6%	55.8%	1.44×	1.24
Fakel Voronezh or Lokomotiv Moscow (12)	66.9%	69.6%	72.2%	0.96×	1.44
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1X)	52.3%	52.6%	71.8%	0.73×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow or draw at HT	83.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
Fakel Voronezh or draw at HT	69.8%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Fakel Voronezh or Lokomotiv Moscow at HT	46.4%	52.0%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow or draw (1UP)	80.8%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1UP)	52.3%	59.2%	—	—	1.69

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow or draw in 2nd half	83.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Fakel Voronezh or draw in 2nd half	60.9%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Fakel Voronezh or Lokomotiv Moscow in 2nd half	56.0%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	72.8%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Neither half drawn	27.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.47

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (DNB)	71.3%	71.4%	39.0%	1.83×	1.40
Fakel Voronezh (DNB)	28.7%	28.6%	61.0%	0.47×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow to score first	53.6%	53.9%	—	—	1.86
Fakel Voronezh to score first	29.6%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goal scored	16.9%	17.6%	—	—	5.68

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	65.1%	58.2%	47.4%	1.23×	1.72
Both teams to score	34.9%	41.8%	52.6%	0.80×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	58.0%	47.3%	37.2%	1.27×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	21.4%	27.7%	37.8%	0.73×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	13.6%	12.3%	14.9%	0.83×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	7.1%	8.4%	10.4%	0.80×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.2%	91.7%	86.9%	1.06×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.8%	8.3%	13.1%	0.63×	12.04

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	83.5%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	16.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	75.4%	73.6%	—	—	1.36
Both score 2nd half only	15.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.44
Both score 1st half only	8.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.75
Both score in both halves	1.5%	4.8%	—	—	20.84

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	90.4%	90.6%	—	—	1.10
Both teams to score by HT	9.6%	9.4%	—	—	10.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	36.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.8%	42.1%	47.9%	0.88×	2.38
0-1 goals	43.4%	42.1%	25.6%	1.65×	2.38
4-6 goals	11.5%	16.9%	25.4%	0.67×	5.91
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	1.6%	1.11×	55.23

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow to score exactly 1	36.2%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Lokomotiv Moscow to score exactly 0	30.2%	33.8%	32.7%	1.03×	2.96
Lokomotiv Moscow to score exactly 2	21.6%	22.4%	18.8%	1.19×	4.46
Lokomotiv Moscow to score 3+	12.0%	12.8%	11.2%	1.14×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 0	51.7%	43.5%	22.1%	1.97×	2.30
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 1	34.1%	32.7%	35.2%	0.93×	3.06
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 2	11.3%	14.3%	24.3%	0.59×	6.98
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+	2.9%	6.1%	18.8%	0.33×	16.31

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	53.6%	48.0%	—	—	2.08
Lokomotiv Moscow leading at HT	30.2%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT	16.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.43

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow -1: 1	52.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Lokomotiv Moscow -1: X	25.9%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Lokomotiv Moscow -1: 2	21.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (0:1)	80.8%	77.5%	55.8%	1.39×	1.29
Draw (0:1)	13.7%	13.9%	21.7%	0.64×	7.21
Fakel Voronezh (0:1)	5.5%	9.2%	22.7%	0.40×	10.91

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (0:2)	94.5%	90.9%	77.3%	1.18×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.4%	3.8%	12.5%	0.30×	26.47
Fakel Voronezh (0:2)	1.1%	3.7%	10.4%	0.36×	26.67

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (0:3)	98.9%	96.6%	89.6%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	0.9%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.17
Fakel Voronezh (0:3)	0.2%	2.4%	4.7%	0.50×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (0:4)	99.8%	98.1%	95.3%	1.03×	1.02
Fakel Voronezh (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	1.2%	0.97×	83.61
Draw (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	3.7%	0.33×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (1:0)	52.3%	54.1%	71.8%	0.75×	1.85
Draw (1:0)	25.9%	25.1%	17.0%	1.48×	3.99
Lokomotiv Moscow (1:0)	21.8%	21.8%	11.5%	1.90×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (2:0)	78.2%	80.4%	88.5%	0.91×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	14.4%	10.4%	7.4%	1.41×	9.60
Lokomotiv Moscow (2:0)	7.4%	6.4%	4.3%	1.50×	15.52

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.1%	47.3%	—	—	2.12
Halves equal	33.5%	30.4%	—	—	3.29
1st half highest scoring	24.5%	24.3%	—	—	4.12

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to concede	69.8%	66.6%	67.3%	0.99×	1.50
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet	30.2%	33.4%	32.7%	1.02×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 1st half	62.0%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 1st half	38.0%	35.4%	—	—	2.82

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 corners	79.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Fakel Voronezh under 6.5 corners	79.0%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Fakel Voronezh under 5.5 corners	67.3%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 corners	64.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Fakel Voronezh under 4.5 corners	52.4%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Fakel Voronezh over 4.5 corners	47.6%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 corners	35.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Fakel Voronezh over 5.5 corners	32.7%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Fakel Voronezh over 6.5 corners	21.0%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 corners	20.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 goals	99.5%	96.4%	92.6%	1.04×	1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 goals	97.1%	96.4%	81.2%	1.19×	1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 goals	85.8%	87.2%	57.1%	1.53×	1.15
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 goals	51.7%	53.2%	22.1%	2.41×	1.88
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 goals	48.3%	46.8%	77.9%	0.60×	2.14
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 goals	14.2%	12.8%	42.9%	0.30×	7.83
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 goals	2.9%	3.6%	18.8%	0.19×	27.45
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 goals	0.5%	3.6%	7.4%	0.49×	27.56

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 1st half	96.7%	97.4%	—	—	1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 1st half	75.3%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 1st half	24.7%	23.2%	—	—	4.30
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 1st half	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.52

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow (home no bet)	59.1%	56.7%	50.4%	1.13×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	41.0%	43.3%	49.6%	0.87×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh even goals	63.4%	56.1%	50.5%	1.11×	1.78
Fakel Voronezh odd goals	36.6%	43.9%	49.5%	0.89×	2.28

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	46.9%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
HT 0-1	22.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 1-0	13.0%	11.0%	—	—	9.10
HT 1-1	6.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
HT 0-2	5.3%	7.0%	—	—	14.20
HT 2-0	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.93
HT 1-2	1.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.96
Any other HT score	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.95
HT 2-1	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	44.00
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.3%	—	—	44.06

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow at HT / Lokomotiv Moscow at FT	25.7%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	24.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Draw at HT / Lokomotiv Moscow at FT	20.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	10.0%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Draw at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	8.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.55
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Draw at FT	4.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Lokomotiv Moscow at HT / Draw at FT	3.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Lokomotiv Moscow at FT	1.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.92
Lokomotiv Moscow at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.96

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow to score last	53.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Fakel Voronezh to score last	29.4%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	16.9%	12.3%	—	—	8.11

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	83.1%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Lokomotiv Moscow to lead by 1 at any time	58.2%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	33.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 1 at any time	31.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Lokomotiv Moscow to lead by 2 at any time	25.4%	25.2%	—	—	3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	9.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.11
Lokomotiv Moscow to lead by 3 at any time	8.4%	6.6%	—	—	15.18
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 2 at any time	7.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.22
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 3 at any time	1.4%	1.5%	—	—	65.20

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh most corners	52.0%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Lokomotiv Moscow most corners	35.8%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	12.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.60

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	81.9%	83.5%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.1%	78.6%	79.6%	0.99×	1.27
1-3 goals	71.4%	72.4%	66.1%	1.10×	1.38
2-6 goals	56.3%	59.2%	73.0%	0.81×	1.69
2-5 goals	55.4%	59.2%	69.3%	0.85×	1.69
1-2 goals	54.7%	53.2%	44.8%	1.19×	1.88
2-4 goals	52.5%	53.2%	61.4%	0.87×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.8%	43.6%	47.9%	0.91×	2.29
3-6 goals	28.1%	30.2%	46.6%	0.65×	3.31
3-5 goals	27.3%	30.2%	42.9%	0.70×	3.31
3-4 goals	24.4%	24.5%	35.0%	0.70×	4.09
4-6 goals	11.5%	14.9%	25.4%	0.59×	6.73
4-5 goals	10.6%	14.9%	21.7%	0.69×	6.73
5-6 goals	3.8%	2.5%	11.9%	0.21×	39.34
7+ goals	0.3%	2.5%	1.6%	1.55×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow never behind	51.3%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Fakel Voronezh never behind	24.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.3%	50.8%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.7%	49.2%	51.1%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	61.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	38.7%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.5%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.5%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.8%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.9%	95.5%	86.7%	1.10×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	88.2%	87.6%	73.2%	1.20×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	92.6%	0.89×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	71.6%	72.5%	51.9%	1.40×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	56.6%	58.8%	74.4%	0.79×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	43.4%	41.2%	25.6%	1.61×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	28.4%	27.5%	48.1%	0.57×	3.64
Under 0.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	7.4%	2.39×	5.68
Over 3.5 goals	11.8%	12.4%	26.8%	0.46×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	13.3%	0.34×	22.22
Over 5.5 goals	1.2%	4.5%	5.3%	0.84×	22.27

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.7%	97.3%	98.3%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.8%	97.3%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.6%	97.2%	84.6%	1.15×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	85.9%	86.7%	66.0%	1.31×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	60.4%	62.1%	34.7%	1.79×	1.61
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	39.6%	37.9%	65.3%	0.58×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	14.1%	13.3%	34.0%	0.39×	7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.4%	2.8%	15.4%	0.18×	36.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.2%	2.7%	5.8%	0.48×	36.38
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.3%	2.7%	1.7%	1.62×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.8%	96.4%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	82.0%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Over 1.5 in 1st half	18.0%	13.6%	—	—	7.33
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.2%	3.6%	—	—	27.88

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	90.2%	88.8%	—	—	1.13
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.1%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.9%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	9.8%	11.2%	—	—	8.90

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to score in both halves	92.3%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
Lokomotiv Moscow not to score in both halves	80.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Lokomotiv Moscow to score in both halves	19.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.37
Fakel Voronezh to score in both halves	7.7%	9.8%	—	—	10.25

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	34.9%	33.4%	52.6%	0.64×	2.99
Only Lokomotiv Moscow scores	34.8%	33.4%	14.9%	2.24×	2.99
Neither team scores	16.9%	16.1%	7.4%	2.18×	6.22
Only Fakel Voronezh scores	13.4%	10.9%	25.6%	0.43×	9.13

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.2%	25.0%	26.6%	0.94×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	26.5%	24.9%	18.4%	1.36×	4.01
Exactly 0 goals	16.9%	17.4%	7.4%	2.37×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	16.7%	17.4%	21.5%	0.81×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	7.7%	7.6%	13.7%	0.56×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	2.9%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.70
6 or more goals	1.2%	4.4%	5.3%	0.83×	22.72

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.8%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goals in 2nd half	33.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.3%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win both halves	97.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Lokomotiv Moscow not to win both halves	88.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Lokomotiv Moscow to win both halves	12.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Fakel Voronezh to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.86

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to win neither half	69.8%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Lokomotiv Moscow to win either half	57.3%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Lokomotiv Moscow to win neither half	42.7%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Fakel Voronezh to win either half	30.2%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win to nil	86.6%	88.2%	74.4%	1.18×	1.13
Lokomotiv Moscow not to win to nil	65.2%	69.6%	85.1%	0.82×	1.44
Lokomotiv Moscow to win to nil	34.8%	30.4%	14.9%	2.04×	3.29
Fakel Voronezh to win to nil	13.4%	11.8%	25.6%	0.46×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Moscow by 1	25.9%	27.8%	17.0%	1.64×	3.60
Draw	33.1%	27.6%	27.8%	0.99×	3.62
Lokomotiv Moscow by 2	14.4%	11.8%	7.4%	1.60×	8.47
Fakel Voronezh by 1	13.7%	11.8%	21.7%	0.54×	8.47
Lokomotiv Moscow by 3+	7.4%	7.2%	4.3%	1.69×	13.80
Fakel Voronezh by 2	4.4%	2.7%	12.5%	0.22×	37.00
Fakel Voronezh by 3+	1.1%	2.7%	10.4%	0.26×	37.10