FC Cologne v Bayern Munich — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 14 January 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 19
On target
3 – 8
Shots in box
5 – 14
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.64
Goals − xG
+0.29 – +0.87
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
6.7%
Draw
13.4%
Bayern Munich win
79.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Bayern Munich are conceding fewer than expected — 3.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWWWDWWWD last 10
scored 34
from 32.8 xG
conceded 12
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.84–3.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.88–2.74 | 0-2 10% | 70% | 55% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 0.71 xGBayern Munich 2.13 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Bayern Munich attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 18' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 20' |
 Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Harry Kane |
| 24' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Goretzka |
| 33' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandar Pavlovic |
| 34' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hiroki Ito |
| 37' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tom Krauß |
| 38' |
Bayern Munich |
Harry Kane | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Olise |
| 40' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 43' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 49' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Bayern Munich |
Serge Gnabry | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 63' |
Bayern Munich |
Luis Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 65' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Serge Gnabry |
| 68' |
Bayern Munich |
Michael Olise | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 69' |
Bayern Munich |
Hiroki Ito | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Bayern Munich |
Kim Min-Jae | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Hiroki Ito |
| 78' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 82' |
Bayern Munich |
Leon Goretzka | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tom Bischof |
| 83' |
Bayern Munich |
Lennart Karl | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Luis Díaz |
| 94' |
FC Cologne |
Jahmai Simpson-Pusey | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
Players
Bayern Munich
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hiroki Ito DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.60 |
| Kim Min-Jae DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Harry Kane FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.06 | 0.51 |
| Michael Olise AMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| Leon Goretzka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.03 | 0.79 |
| Luis Díaz AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.67 | 0.86 |
| Aleksandar Pavlovic DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.20 |
| Manuel Neuer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Konrad Laimer DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Serge Gnabry AMC | 79 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.77 |
| Jonathan Tah DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lennart Karl Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dayotchanculle Upamecano Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tom Bischof Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Raphael Guerreiro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.45 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kristoffer Lund DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jakub Kaminski MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Thielmann DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Linton Maina FWR | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| Fynn Schenten Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssoupha Niang Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |