FC Cologne v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
7 – 5
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.06
Goals − xG
-0.52 – +0.96
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
55.9%
Draw
21.4%
FC Heidenheim win
22.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.01–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.22–1.30 | 2-1 9% | 68% | 65% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.52 xGFC Heidenheim 2.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.49 | Open Play | — | Goal | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 9' |
 FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 9' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Tom Krauß |
| 9' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 14' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 21' |
FC Heidenheim |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 24' |
FC Cologne |
Joël Schmied | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 24' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 32' |
FC Heidenheim |
Hennes Behrens | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 37' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 40' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Schöppner |
| 47' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 51' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Linton Maina |
| 61' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 63' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hennes Behrens |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 67' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 73' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Kainz |
| 76' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Alessio Castro-Montes |
| 79' |
FC Cologne |
Alessio Castro-Montes | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 82' |
FC Cologne |
Florian Kainz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Niklas Dorsch |
| 93' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 94' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
Players
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Schöppner DMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1.45 | 0.05 | 1.54 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Hennes Behrens DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Niklas Dorsch DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| Frank Feller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 0.29 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC | 78 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 1.06 | 1.30 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leonidas Stergiou Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Conteh Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Marius Bülter FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.01 | 0.42 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.46 | 0.82 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1.19 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Linton Maina AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Joël Schmied DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Tom Krauß DMC | 60 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.54 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.22 | 0.52 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.61 |
| Dominique Heintz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Youssoupha Niang Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |