FC Cologne v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.54 – 0.18
Goals − xG
+2.16 – +0.07
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
47.8%
Draw
25.1%
Freiburg win
27.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.12 | 1-1 12% | 51% | 53% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 1.84 xGFreiburg 0.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 9' |
 Freiburg |
Eren Sami Dinkci | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 15' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 17' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 22' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristoffer Lund |
| 26' |
FC Cologne |
Denis Huseinbasic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 32' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Christian Günter |
| 34' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.44 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Marius Bülter |
| 36' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 38' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 45' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 46' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jan Thielmann |
| 48' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 53' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 56' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marius Bülter |
| 58' |
FC Cologne |
Kristoffer Lund | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jan Thielmann |
| 65' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Sebulonsen |
| 66' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 66' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 69' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Christian Günter |
| 72' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anthony Jung |
| 80' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 80' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christian Günter |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Nicolas Höfler | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christian Günter |
| 88' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 94' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Höler FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Christian Günter DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.01 | 0.27 | 0.58 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.57 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.25 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci AMR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.10 | 0.21 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Anthony Jung Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.38 |
| Junior Adamu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Philipp Treu Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakub Kaminski FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.81 | 0.23 | 0.56 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Eric Martel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marius Bülter AML | 81 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.63 | 0.93 |
| Jan Thielmann AMR | 73 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 0.70 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.88 |
| Denis Huseinbasic DMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Timo Hübers DC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Joël Schmied Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Tom Krauß Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Said El Mala Sub | 17 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jusuf Gazibegovic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |