FC Cologne v St. Pauli — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 6 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 5
On target
7 – 1
Shots in box
6 – 2
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.03
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-1.35 – +0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Cologne win
59.4%
Draw
23.3%
St. Pauli win
17.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.87–0.91 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–1.14 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Cologne 2.35 xGSt. Pauli 0.14 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Cologne attacking right
St. Pauli attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 20' |
 FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.60 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 20' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 20' |
FC Cologne |
Sebastian Sebulonsen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
FC Cologne |
Marius Bülter | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 50' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Gian-Luca Waldschmidt |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Denis Huseinbasic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Adam Dzwigala | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 75' |
FC Cologne |
Tom Krauß | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 77' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 79' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Adam Dzwigala |
| 79' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
FC Cologne |
Florian Kainz | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
St. Pauli |
Ricky-Jade Jones | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Goal | Danel Sinani |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Chima Fujita MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Louis Oppie DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Karol Mets DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| James Sands MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pereira Lage ML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Dzwigala Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Danel Sinani Sub | 17 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jakub Kaminski DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.85 |
| Jan Thielmann DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Eric Martel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt FWR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.68 | 0.46 | 1.75 |
| Said El Mala FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 1.07 |
| Tom Krauß MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marius Bülter FWL | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| Denis Huseinbasic MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ragnar Ache Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kristoffer Lund Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |