FC Famalicao v Alverca — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627

Primeira Liga results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

FC Famalicao

14:00

Alverca

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 860h before kick-off

FC Famalicao win

51.4%

model 53.9%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.6%

Alverca win

22.1%

model 20.5%

512622

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 16.8%
2-0 11.5%
1-1 11.4%
0-0 10.5%
0-1 9.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	37.4%	Under 2.5	62.6%
BTTS yes	39.6%	BTTS no	60.4%
FC Famalicao 1+	76.1%	FC Famalicao 2+	41.9%
Alverca 1+	53.0%	Alverca 2+	17.5%

Expected goals 1.43 – 0.76. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

FC Famalicao carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1451.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Famalicao have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.1% for Alverca. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for FC Famalicao and 0.76 for Alverca.

Why FC Famalicao

FC Famalicao carry the stronger rating, 1546 Elo against 1451.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. A combined 2.19 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Alverca can win

Nothing in the data singles out Alverca.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Famalicao, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Alverca, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Famalicao: 58% possession, 9.4 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Alverca: 46% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

FC Famalicao are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	522821	1.28–0.68	1-0 19%	31%	35%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao to win	51.6%	51.5%	42.2%	1.22×	1.94
Draw	27.8%	27.9%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Alverca to win	20.6%	24.4%	31.4%	0.78×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao & not both score	37.2%	33.2%	26.1%	1.27×	3.01
FC Famalicao & both teams score	14.4%	13.3%	16.2%	0.82×	7.54
Draw & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	20.4%	0.65×	7.54
Alverca & not both score	14.5%	13.3%	19.8%	0.67×	7.54
Draw & not both score	13.3%	13.3%	6.3%	2.09×	7.54
Alverca & both teams score	6.1%	8.4%	11.7%	0.71×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao & under 3.5	43.0%	40.3%	29.2%	1.38×	2.48
FC Famalicao & over 1.5	32.9%	30.9%	31.5%	0.98×	3.24
FC Famalicao & under 2.5	30.2%	30.8%	17.6%	1.75×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	24.8%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	24.8%	21.6%	17.2%	1.26×	4.62
FC Famalicao & over 2.5	21.4%	21.6%	24.7%	0.88×	4.62
FC Famalicao & under 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	10.8%	1.66×	5.56
Alverca & under 3.5	18.6%	18.0%	25.5%	0.71×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.5%	12.9%	20.4%	0.63×	7.77
Alverca & under 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	14.2%	0.91×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	13.3%	12.9%	6.3%	2.03×	7.77
Alverca & under 1.5	10.4%	12.9%	9.1%	1.41×	7.77
Alverca & over 1.5	10.3%	12.9%	22.4%	0.57×	7.77
FC Famalicao & over 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	13.1%	0.60×	12.70
Alverca & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	17.3%	0.45×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	3.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.0%	4.8%	9.6%	0.50×	20.93
Alverca & over 3.5	2.1%	4.8%	6.0%	0.79×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (1UP)	61.4%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Alverca (1UP)	32.9%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (2UP)	51.6%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Alverca (2UP)	20.6%	23.3%	—	—	4.29

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	41.8%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
FC Famalicao to win 2nd half	39.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Alverca to win 2nd half	18.8%	19.3%	—	—	5.19

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (+2.5)	91.5%	92.1%	89.6%	1.03×	1.09
FC Famalicao (+0.5)	79.4%	78.5%	68.6%	1.14×	1.27
Alverca (+1.5)	76.2%	78.4%	77.7%	1.01×	1.28
FC Famalicao (-0.5)	51.6%	52.4%	42.2%	1.24×	1.91
Alverca (+0.5)	48.4%	47.6%	57.8%	0.82×	2.10
FC Famalicao (-1.5)	23.8%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.64
Alverca (-0.5)	20.6%	21.5%	31.4%	0.69×	4.65
FC Famalicao (-2.5)	8.5%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to concede	72.2%	76.5%	74.0%	1.03×	1.31
Alverca clean sheet	27.8%	23.5%	26.0%	0.91×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca clean sheet in 1st half	57.7%	57.9%	—	—	1.73
Alverca to concede in 1st half	42.3%	42.1%	—	—	2.38

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca over 2.5 corners	78.9%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Alverca under 6.5 corners	77.5%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Alverca under 5.5 corners	66.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Alverca over 3.5 corners	63.6%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Alverca under 4.5 corners	52.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Alverca over 4.5 corners	47.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Alverca under 3.5 corners	36.4%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Alverca over 5.5 corners	33.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Alverca over 6.5 corners	22.5%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Alverca under 2.5 corners	21.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca under 3.5 goals	99.5%	97.6%	96.1%	1.01×	1.03
Alverca under 2.5 goals	96.8%	97.5%	88.9%	1.10×	1.03
Alverca under 1.5 goals	85.0%	87.9%	65.4%	1.34×	1.14
Alverca under 0.5 goals	50.5%	53.6%	32.3%	1.66×	1.86
Alverca over 0.5 goals	49.5%	46.4%	67.7%	0.68×	2.16
Alverca over 1.5 goals	15.0%	12.1%	34.6%	0.35×	8.25
Alverca over 2.5 goals	3.2%	2.5%	11.1%	0.22×	40.81
Alverca over 3.5 goals	0.5%	2.4%	3.9%	0.63×	40.96

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca under 1.5 in 1st half	96.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Alverca under 0.5 in 1st half	76.1%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Alverca over 0.5 in 1st half	23.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
Alverca over 1.5 in 1st half	3.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.83

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (away no bet)	65.0%	66.4%	61.3%	1.08×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	35.0%	33.6%	38.7%	0.87×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca even goals	62.8%	59.1%	58.6%	1.01×	1.69
Alverca odd goals	37.2%	40.9%	41.4%	0.99×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	93.7%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	6.3%	7.2%	—	—	13.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	55.2%	59.5%	—	—	1.68
Not both halves under 1.5	44.8%	40.5%	—	—	2.47

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	41.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
FC Famalicao to score 2+ in a row	32.0%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
Either team to score 3+ in a row	12.5%	12.1%	—	—	8.26
Alverca to score 2+ in a row	11.1%	12.1%	—	—	8.29
FC Famalicao to score 3+ in a row	10.7%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Alverca to score 3+ in a row	1.9%	2.5%	—	—	39.27

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao corners (+3.5)	87.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
FC Famalicao corners (+2.5)	80.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Alverca corners (+3.5)	76.1%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
FC Famalicao corners (+1.5)	72.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Alverca corners (+2.5)	67.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Alverca corners (+1.5)	57.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
FC Famalicao corners (-1.5)	42.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
FC Famalicao corners (-2.5)	32.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Alverca corners (-1.5)	27.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
FC Famalicao corners (-3.5)	23.9%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Alverca corners (-2.5)	19.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Alverca corners (-3.5)	12.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	35.9%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	34.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.0%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	73.7%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.6%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	64.1%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	46.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	35.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.4%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	26.0%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	26.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	18.7%	13.8%	10.8%	1.27×	7.26
0-0	13.3%	11.5%	6.3%	1.81×	8.73
1-1	11.5%	11.4%	11.0%	1.04×	8.74
2-0	11.5%	11.4%	7.0%	1.65×	8.74
0-1	10.4%	11.4%	9.1%	1.26×	8.74
2-1	7.9%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.47
3-0	4.9%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.50
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	5.3%	0.33×	58.51
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.52
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
1-2	4.2%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.50
1-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.52
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.58×	58.52
2-2	2.7%	1.7%	8.3%	0.20×	58.51
2-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.52
3-1	3.4%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.50
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.52
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.2%	1.38×	58.52
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	11.06×	58.52
4-0	1.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.52
4-1	1.1%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.52
4-2	0.4%	1.7%	0.6%	2.76×	58.52
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.3%	5.53×	58.52
Any other score	1.1%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao leading at HT (DNB)	69.9%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Alverca leading at HT (DNB)	30.2%	25.4%	—	—	3.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao or draw (1X)	79.4%	75.6%	68.6%	1.10×	1.32
FC Famalicao or Alverca (12)	72.2%	72.1%	73.4%	0.98×	1.39
Alverca or draw (X2)	48.4%	48.5%	57.8%	0.84×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao or draw at HT	85.1%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Alverca or draw at HT	65.4%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
FC Famalicao or Alverca at HT	49.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao or draw (1UP)	79.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Alverca or draw (1UP)	48.4%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao or draw in 2nd half	81.2%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Alverca or draw in 2nd half	60.6%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
FC Famalicao or Alverca in 2nd half	58.2%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	71.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.42
Neither half drawn	28.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (DNB)	71.4%	71.4%	57.4%	1.25×	1.40
Alverca (DNB)	28.6%	28.6%	42.6%	0.67×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao to score first	56.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Alverca to score first	30.2%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
No goal scored	13.3%	10.3%	—	—	9.67

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	65.0%	58.2%	51.9%	1.12×	1.72
Both teams to score	35.0%	41.8%	48.1%	0.87×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	57.2%	47.2%	37.9%	1.25×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	23.5%	27.7%	37.2%	0.74×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	11.5%	12.3%	11.0%	1.12×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	7.9%	8.4%	14.2%	0.59×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.5%	89.1%	85.9%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	5.5%	10.9%	14.1%	0.77×	9.20

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	82.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	17.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	74.6%	69.2%	—	—	1.44
Both score 2nd half only	15.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Both score 1st half only	8.2%	6.8%	—	—	14.74
Both score in both halves	1.8%	4.8%	—	—	20.78

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	90.0%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Both teams to score by HT	10.0%	9.7%	—	—	10.26

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	62.2%	58.6%	—	—	1.71
A goal in each half	37.8%	41.4%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.0%	42.1%	45.8%	0.92×	2.38
0-1 goals	42.4%	42.1%	26.0%	1.62×	2.38
4-6 goals	13.2%	16.9%	27.7%	0.61×	5.90
7+ goals	0.4%	1.8%	0.9%	1.95×	55.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to score exactly 0	50.5%	47.2%	32.3%	1.46×	2.12
Alverca to score exactly 1	34.5%	33.9%	33.2%	1.02×	2.95
Alverca to score exactly 2	11.8%	12.8%	23.6%	0.54×	7.81
Alverca to score 3+	3.2%	4.5%	11.1%	0.41×	22.09

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.6%	31.5%	1.13×	2.81
FC Famalicao to score exactly 0	27.8%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
FC Famalicao to score exactly 2	22.8%	23.3%	23.6%	0.98×	4.30
FC Famalicao to score 3+	13.8%	14.3%	19.2%	0.75×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	50.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
FC Famalicao leading at HT	34.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
Alverca leading at HT	14.9%	12.0%	—	—	8.31

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao -1: 2	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
FC Famalicao -1: X	27.8%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
FC Famalicao -1: 1	23.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (0:1)	48.4%	45.9%	57.8%	0.79×	2.18
Draw (0:1)	27.8%	27.0%	20.1%	1.35×	3.70
FC Famalicao (0:1)	23.8%	24.3%	22.3%	1.09×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (0:2)	76.2%	79.4%	77.7%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	15.2%	15.3%	12.1%	1.27×	6.54
FC Famalicao (0:2)	8.5%	7.7%	10.4%	0.75×	12.95

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (0:3)	91.5%	92.6%	89.6%	1.03×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	6.1%	5.8%	6.0%	0.96×	17.20
FC Famalicao (0:3)	2.4%	2.4%	4.5%	0.53×	42.10

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca (0:4)	97.6%	98.1%	95.5%	1.03×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.39
FC Famalicao (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.4%	0.86×	83.55

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (1:0)	79.4%	78.5%	68.6%	1.14×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	15.2%	17.0%	17.8%	0.96×	5.87
Alverca (1:0)	5.4%	6.9%	13.8%	0.50×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao (2:0)	94.6%	94.0%	86.2%	1.09×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	7.1%	0.32×	44.23
Alverca (2:0)	1.1%	2.3%	6.8%	0.33×	44.44

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.6%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Halves equal	29.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao clean sheet	50.5%	53.1%	32.3%	1.64×	1.88
FC Famalicao to concede	49.5%	46.9%	67.7%	0.69×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao clean sheet in 1st half	76.1%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
FC Famalicao to concede in 1st half	23.9%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao over 2.5 corners	85.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
FC Famalicao over 3.5 corners	73.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
FC Famalicao under 6.5 corners	66.9%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
FC Famalicao over 4.5 corners	59.4%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
FC Famalicao under 5.5 corners	54.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
FC Famalicao over 5.5 corners	45.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
FC Famalicao under 4.5 corners	40.6%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
FC Famalicao over 6.5 corners	33.1%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
FC Famalicao under 3.5 corners	26.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
FC Famalicao under 2.5 corners	14.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao under 3.5 goals	95.9%	96.4%	93.5%	1.03×	1.04
FC Famalicao under 2.5 goals	86.2%	87.2%	80.8%	1.08×	1.15
FC Famalicao over 0.5 goals	72.2%	74.2%	74.0%	1.00×	1.35
FC Famalicao under 1.5 goals	63.4%	63.4%	57.3%	1.11×	1.58
FC Famalicao over 1.5 goals	36.6%	36.6%	42.7%	0.86×	2.74
FC Famalicao under 0.5 goals	27.8%	25.8%	26.0%	0.99×	3.88
FC Famalicao over 2.5 goals	13.8%	12.8%	19.2%	0.67×	7.83
FC Famalicao over 3.5 goals	4.1%	3.7%	6.5%	0.56×	27.40

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
FC Famalicao under 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
FC Famalicao over 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
FC Famalicao over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	10.0%	—	—	10.01

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	57.4%	56.7%	45.9%	1.24×	1.76
Alverca (home no bet)	42.6%	43.3%	54.1%	0.80×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao even goals	53.9%	50.6%	54.6%	0.93×	1.98
FC Famalicao odd goals	46.1%	49.4%	45.4%	1.09×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	43.8%	42.4%	—	—	2.36
HT 1-0	24.3%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	12.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.11
HT 2-0	6.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
HT 1-1	6.5%	7.0%	—	—	14.19
Any other HT score	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.91
HT 2-1	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.93
HT 0-2	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.95
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	44.00
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.3%	—	—	44.05

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao at HT / FC Famalicao at FT	29.7%	26.8%	—	—	3.73
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	20.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / FC Famalicao at FT	20.3%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Draw at HT / Alverca at FT	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
Alverca at HT / Alverca at FT	9.8%	6.1%	—	—	16.51
FC Famalicao at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Alverca at HT / Draw at FT	3.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Alverca at HT / FC Famalicao at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.93
FC Famalicao at HT / Alverca at FT	0.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao to score last	56.4%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Alverca to score last	30.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	13.3%	9.7%	—	—	10.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.7%	90.4%	—	—	1.11
FC Famalicao to lead by 1 at any time	61.4%	61.3%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	35.4%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Alverca to lead by 1 at any time	32.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
FC Famalicao to lead by 2 at any time	27.6%	25.3%	—	—	3.95
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.64
FC Famalicao to lead by 3 at any time	9.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.12
Alverca to lead by 2 at any time	7.9%	6.6%	—	—	15.21
Alverca to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.5%	—	—	65.14

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao most corners	53.0%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Alverca most corners	36.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.2%	87.4%	90.0%	0.97×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.8%	83.5%	83.2%	1.00×	1.20
1-3 goals	73.1%	72.4%	65.4%	1.11×	1.38
2-6 goals	57.2%	59.2%	73.3%	0.81×	1.69
2-5 goals	56.1%	59.2%	70.3%	0.84×	1.69
1-2 goals	55.4%	59.2%	42.5%	1.39×	1.69
2-4 goals	52.7%	53.2%	63.5%	0.84×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.0%	43.6%	45.8%	0.95×	2.29
3-6 goals	30.9%	35.4%	50.5%	0.70×	2.83
3-5 goals	29.8%	30.2%	47.6%	0.64×	3.31
3-4 goals	26.4%	30.2%	40.8%	0.74×	3.31
4-6 goals	13.2%	14.9%	27.7%	0.54×	6.72
4-5 goals	12.1%	14.9%	24.7%	0.60×	6.73
5-6 goals	4.5%	2.5%	9.9%	0.26×	39.31
7+ goals	0.4%	2.5%	0.9%	2.73×	39.50

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao never behind	53.8%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Alverca never behind	25.3%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.5%	50.8%	50.1%	1.01×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.5%	49.2%	49.9%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	59.4%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	40.6%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.6%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.4%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.5%	95.5%	96.1%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.1%	95.5%	89.3%	1.07×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	86.7%	87.6%	93.7%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	86.4%	87.6%	71.6%	1.22×	1.14
Under 2.5 goals	68.7%	66.2%	48.7%	1.36×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	57.6%	58.8%	74.0%	0.79×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	42.4%	41.2%	26.0%	1.59×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	31.3%	33.8%	51.3%	0.66×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	13.6%	12.4%	28.4%	0.43×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	13.3%	12.4%	6.3%	1.95×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	4.9%	4.5%	10.7%	0.42×	22.21
Over 5.5 goals	1.5%	4.5%	3.9%	1.16×	22.26

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.3%	99.0%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.4%	97.3%	95.9%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	94.6%	92.5%	87.0%	1.06×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	83.4%	81.1%	63.1%	1.28×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	57.5%	55.5%	33.6%	1.65×	1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	42.5%	44.5%	66.4%	0.67×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	16.6%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	5.4%	7.5%	13.0%	0.58×	13.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.6%	2.7%	4.1%	0.66×	36.37
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.7%	1.0%	2.87×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.9%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	80.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	56.2%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	43.8%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half	5.1%	7.0%	—	—	14.22

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.2%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	68.7%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	68.3%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	31.7%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	31.3%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.8%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca not to score in both halves	92.0%	90.2%	—	—	1.11
FC Famalicao not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
FC Famalicao to score in both halves	21.9%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Alverca to score in both halves	8.0%	9.8%	—	—	10.18

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only FC Famalicao scores	37.2%	39.8%	26.1%	1.53×	2.51
Both teams score	35.0%	33.4%	48.1%	0.69×	2.99
Only Alverca scores	14.5%	11.0%	19.8%	0.55×	9.13
Neither team scores	13.3%	10.9%	6.3%	1.73×	9.13

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	29.1%	25.0%	19.8%	1.26×	4.01
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	24.9%	22.9%	1.09×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	17.7%	17.4%	23.0%	0.76×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	13.3%	12.1%	6.3%	1.90×	8.29
Exactly 4 goals	8.7%	7.6%	17.9%	0.43×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	3.4%	4.4%	7.0%	0.63×	22.69
6 or more goals	1.5%	4.4%	3.9%	1.14×	22.72

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	37.0%	40.1%	—	—	2.50
No goals in 2nd half	31.7%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
2+ goals in 2nd half	31.3%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca not to win both halves	97.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
FC Famalicao not to win both halves	86.5%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
FC Famalicao to win both halves	13.5%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Alverca to win both halves	2.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.90

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca to win neither half	69.0%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
FC Famalicao to win either half	60.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
FC Famalicao to win neither half	39.5%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Alverca to win either half	31.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.12

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Alverca not to win to nil	85.5%	88.2%	80.2%	1.10×	1.13
FC Famalicao not to win to nil	62.8%	66.8%	73.9%	0.90×	1.50
FC Famalicao to win to nil	37.2%	33.2%	26.1%	1.27×	3.01
Alverca to win to nil	14.5%	11.8%	19.8%	0.60×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
FC Famalicao by 1	27.8%	27.8%	20.1%	1.38×	3.60
Draw	27.8%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.60
Alverca by 1	15.2%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.90
FC Famalicao by 2	15.2%	16.9%	12.1%	1.41×	5.90
FC Famalicao by 3+	8.5%	7.3%	10.4%	0.70×	13.79
Alverca by 2	4.3%	2.7%	7.1%	0.38×	37.00
Alverca by 3+	1.1%	2.7%	6.8%	0.40×	37.10