FC Heidenheim v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.92 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.21 – +0.38
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
29.3%
Draw
30.7%
Augsburg win
40.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.57–1.27 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 1.79 xGAugsburg 0.62 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Niklas Dorsch | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 27' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.37 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 38' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 43' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.41 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mikkel Kaufmann | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sirlord Conteh |
| 53' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mikkel Kaufmann |
| 57' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 59' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marius Wolf |
| 67' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 71' |
Augsburg |
Noahkai Banks | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mert Kömür |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Keven Schlotterbeck | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Phillip Tietz |
| 86' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 87' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 93' |
FC Heidenheim |
Tim Siersleben | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 96' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Kerber |
| 97' |
Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Fabian Rieder |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.36 | 0.53 |
| Keven Schlotterbeck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Kristijan Jakic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Samuel Essende FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marius Wolf AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| Robin Fellhauer MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mert Kömür Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Noahkai Banks Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 20 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijon Ibrahimovic FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.37 | 0.62 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Omar Traoré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Sirlord Conteh FWR | 70 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1.33 | 0.06 | 0.62 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann FW | 70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| Marnon Busch Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Adam Kölle Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Benedikt Gimber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |