FC Heidenheim v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 16
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.50
Goals − xG
+0.17 – -0.22
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
16.2%
Draw
19.9%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
63.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.06–2.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–2.42 | 1-2 9% | 69% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.83 xGEintracht Frankfurt 1.22 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 10' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 14' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 31' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 33' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 34' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 37' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 40' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mario Götze | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 45' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Ritsu Doan |
| 47' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 51' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nathaniel Brown |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
| 65' |
FC Heidenheim |
Julian Niehues | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 66' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 71' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 72' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 77' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 83' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 84' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Kristensen DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.56 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.43 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.60 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Ansgar Knauff FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ritsu Doan MR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.02 |
| Nathaniel Brown ML | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.06 | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| Can Uzun AMC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jonathan Burkardt Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean Négoce Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arijon Ibrahimovic MR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.66 | 0.66 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Marnon Busch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| Stefan Schimmer FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.72 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Mathias Honsak ML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Marvin Pieringer Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Niklas Dorsch Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Beck Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Kölle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |