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FC Heidenheim v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 21 September 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

0–3
0.38 – 1.24 xG
Shots
7 – 15
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.38 – +1.72
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.71.11.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Ritsu Doan 53' — goalVincenzo Grifo 58' — goalVincenzo Grifo 64' — goal
FC Heidenheim 0.38 xGFreiburg 1.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Matthias Ginter 0' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Vincenzo Grifo 7' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 13' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Eren Sami Dinkci 17' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Mathias Honsak 18' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Christian Günter 24' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Marvin Pieringer 30' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Matthias Ginter 42' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Mathias Honsak 45' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lennard Maloney 46' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Eren Sami Dinkci 48' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lukas Kübler 50' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Ritsu Doan 53' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Junior Adamu 58' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 58' — Goal (0.35 xG, Open Play)Stefan Schimmer 61' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Vincenzo Grifo 64' — Goal (0.12 xG, Open Play)Christian Günter 68' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Léo Scienza 82' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Florent Muslija 82' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Léo Scienza 84' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Lucas Höler 87' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
FC Heidenheim attacking right Freiburg attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
0' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Vincenzo Grifo
7' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Junior Adamu
13' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Eren Sami Dinkci
17' Freiburg Eren Sami Dinkci 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Vincenzo Grifo
18' FC Heidenheim Mathias Honsak 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marnon Busch
24' Freiburg Christian Günter 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' FC Heidenheim Marvin Pieringer 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Patrick Mainka
42' Freiburg Matthias Ginter 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Christian Günter
45' FC Heidenheim Mathias Honsak 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marvin Pieringer
46' FC Heidenheim Lennard Maloney 0.10 From Corner Missed Shot Mathias Honsak
48' Freiburg Eren Sami Dinkci 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lukas Kübler
50' Freiburg Lukas Kübler 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Vincenzo Grifo
53' Freiburg Ritsu Doan 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal Eren Sami Dinkci
58' Freiburg Junior Adamu 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Eren Sami Dinkci
58' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Goal
61' FC Heidenheim Stefan Schimmer 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Sirlord Conteh
64' Freiburg Vincenzo Grifo 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lucas Höler
68' Freiburg Christian Günter 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Maximilian Eggestein
82' FC Heidenheim Léo Scienza 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Stefan Schimmer
82' Freiburg Florent Muslija 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jordy Makengo
84' FC Heidenheim Léo Scienza 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
87' Freiburg Lucas Höler 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Florent Muslija

Players

Freiburg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lukas Kübler DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.06 0.51
Matthias Ginter DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.11
Philipp Lienhart DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Patrick Osterhage DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Noah Atubolu GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Maximilian Eggestein DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.38
Vincenzo Grifo AML 84 2 0 4 3 0.54 0.22 0.78
Christian Günter DL 84 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.01 0.24
Ritsu Doan AMR 84 1 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.21
Junior Adamu FW 73 0 0 1 1 0.11 0.03 0.37
Eren Sami Dinkci AMC 66 0 1 2 3 0.18 0.18 0.42
Lucas Höler Sub 24 0 1 1 1 0.09 0.12 0.26
Florent Muslija Sub 17 0 0 1 1 0.14 0.09 0.23
Jordy Makengo Sub 6 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.14 0.23
Noah Weißhaupt Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Johan Manzambi Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23

FC Heidenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Marvin Pieringer FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.06 0.10
Kevin Müller GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Benedikt Gimber DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Jonas Föhrenbach ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Patrick Mainka DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.05
Omar Traoré MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Lennard Maloney DMC 74 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.08
Paul Wanner MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Mathias Honsak MC 63 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.10 0.11
Marnon Busch DC 63 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.11
Maximilian Breunig FW 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Léo Scienza Sub 27 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.15
Stefan Schimmer Sub 27 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.07 0.10
Sirlord Conteh Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Niklas Dorsch Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jan Schöppner Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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