FC Heidenheim v Holstein Kiel — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 16
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.64 – 0.19
Goals − xG
+1.34 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
40.8%
Draw
26.0%
Holstein Kiel win
33.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDLDWWLL last 10
scored 14
from 13.7 xG
conceded 21
from 20.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.82–1.64 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 1.66 xGHolstein Kiel 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Holstein Kiel attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Holstein Kiel |
Timo Becker | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lasse Rosenboom |
| 5' |
Holstein Kiel |
Timo Becker | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Magnus Knudsen |
| 9' |
Holstein Kiel |
Shuto Machino | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Magnus Knudsen |
| 18' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 18' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Holstein Kiel |
Steven Skrzybski | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 32' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 32' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Goal | Frans Krätzig |
| 39' |
Holstein Kiel |
Armin Gigovic | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Shuto Machino |
| 43' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 45' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.52 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Budu Zivzivadze | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 51' |
Holstein Kiel |
Phil Harres | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Finn Porath |
| 57' |
Holstein Kiel |
Jann-Fiete Arp | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 61' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Holstein Kiel |
Jann-Fiete Arp | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 69' |
Holstein Kiel |
Alexander Bernhardsson | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 72' |
Holstein Kiel |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Holstein Kiel |
Phil Harres | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jann-Fiete Arp |
| 74' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 80' |
FC Heidenheim |
Léo Scienza | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jan Schöppner |
| 81' |
Holstein Kiel |
Nicolai Remberg | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Marco Komenda |
| 86' |
Holstein Kiel |
Finn Porath | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Komenda |
| 86' |
Holstein Kiel |
Phil Harres | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Holstein Kiel |
Jann-Fiete Arp | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John Tolkin |
| 92' |
FC Heidenheim |
Sirlord Conteh | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 92' |
Holstein Kiel |
Phil Harres | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | John Tolkin |
Players
Holstein Kiel
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Timo Becker DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Finn Porath DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| Timon Weiner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| David Zec DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Marco Komenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Steven Skrzybski FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Shuto Machino FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Magnus Knudsen MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Armin Gigovic MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Lasse Rosenboom DMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Phil Harres Sub | 42 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Alexander Bernhardsson Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jann-Fiete Arp Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| Lewis Holtby Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| John Tolkin Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Beck MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.28 |
| Marnon Busch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.04 | 1.17 | 0.80 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Frans Krätzig DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Omar Traoré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Benedikt Gimber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Dorsch MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 77 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.78 | 0.03 | 0.31 |
| Léo Scienza Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Thomas Keller Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Sirlord Conteh Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |