FC Heidenheim v Mainz 05 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 16 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 4
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.32
Set-piece xG
0.23 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.55 – +0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.FC Heidenheim win
16.8%
Draw
25.3%
Mainz 05 win
57.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Mainz 05 are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWLDLWLWDW last 10
scored 18
from 23.4 xG
conceded 12
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.01–1.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
FC Heidenheim 0.55 xGMainz 05 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
FC Heidenheim attacking right
Mainz 05 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
FC Heidenheim |
Tim Siersleben | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 17' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 24' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Budu Zivzivadze |
| 25' |
FC Heidenheim |
Frans Krätzig | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jan Schöppner |
| 28' |
 Mainz 05 |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.72 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Anthony Caci |
| 37' |
Mainz 05 |
Paul Nebel | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anthony Caci |
| 48' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.89 | Open Play | — | Goal | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 51' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Mainz 05 |
Nelson Weiper | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jonathan Burkardt |
| 59' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jan Schöppner | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Frans Krätzig |
| 70' |
Mainz 05 |
Anthony Caci | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nelson Weiper |
| 72' |
Mainz 05 |
Nadiem Amiri | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jae-Sung Lee |
| 73' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Julian Niehues |
| 83' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Léo Scienza |
Players
Mainz 05
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Nebel AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 1.86 |
| Kaishu Sano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.90 |
| Moritz Jenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Mwene ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.94 |
| Danny da Costa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Robin Zentner GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nadiem Amiri MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Dominik Kohr DC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Caci MR | 78 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.81 | 1.90 |
| Nelson Weiper FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.94 | 0.09 | 1.03 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 62 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.72 | 0.94 | 1.67 |
| Jae-Sung Lee Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Armindo Sieb Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Silvan Widmer Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennard Maloney Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andreas Hanche-Olsen Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Honsak AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omar Traoré DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.10 |
| Budu Zivzivadze FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Kevin Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.24 |
| Frans Krätzig AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrian Beck MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Thomas Keller DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marvin Pieringer Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Paul Wanner Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Léo Scienza Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Julian Niehues Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Luca Kerber Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |