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FC Nordsjælland v AGF — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · DEN-Superliga · 2627

DEN-Superliga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
FC Nordsjælland win
44.0%
model 40.1%
Draw
27.5%
model 26.2%
AGF win
28.4%
model 33.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.3%
  2. 2-1 8.8%
  3. 1-2 8.0%
  4. 1-0 7.6%
  5. 0-1 6.8%

Goals

Over 2.555.5% Under 2.544.5%
BTTS yes59.3% BTTS no40.7%
FC Nordsjælland 1+78.2% FC Nordsjælland 2+45.0%
AGF 1+74.8% AGF 2+40.1%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.38. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 56%
62.7% fair odds 1.60
moderate signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
FC Nordsjælland (2:0)
Handicap 2:0 · usually 84%
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 326 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

FC Nordsjælland have an estimated 44.0% win probability, against 28.4% for AGF and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.52 for FC Nordsjælland and 1.38 for AGF.

Why FC Nordsjælland

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.52 to 1.38. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why AGF can win

Nothing in the data singles out AGF.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for FC Nordsjælland, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for AGF, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

FC Nordsjælland: 44% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 8.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. AGF: 59% possession, 19.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

FC Nordsjælland are the model's most likely outcome at 44.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.52–1.38 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.40–1.38 1-1 13% 53% 57%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to win 37.0% 36.4% 44.9% 0.81× 2.75
AGF to win 36.0% 36.4% 30.0% 1.21× 2.75
Draw 26.9% 27.9% 25.3% 1.10× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 20.0% 17.9% 19.6% 0.92× 5.58
FC Nordsjælland & both teams score 18.8% 17.9% 24.5% 0.73× 5.58
FC Nordsjælland & not both score 18.2% 17.9% 20.7% 0.87× 5.58
AGF & both teams score 18.4% 17.9% 16.8% 1.07× 5.58
AGF & not both score 17.7% 17.9% 13.5% 1.33× 5.58
Draw & not both score 7.0% 8.4% 6.1% 1.38× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland & over 1.5 29.1% 26.0% 35.5% 0.73× 3.84
AGF & over 1.5 28.3% 26.0% 26.2% 0.99× 3.84
FC Nordsjælland & under 3.5 25.2% 26.0% 27.3% 0.95× 3.84
AGF & under 3.5 24.7% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.62
FC Nordsjælland & over 2.5 23.0% 21.6% 29.5% 0.73× 4.62
AGF & over 2.5 22.4% 21.6% 20.9% 1.03× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.0% 18.0% 19.6% 0.92× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 19.7% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.7% 18.0% 16.8% 1.07× 5.56
FC Nordsjælland & under 2.5 14.0% 12.9% 15.7% 0.82× 7.77
AGF & under 2.5 13.7% 12.9% 9.4% 1.37× 7.77
FC Nordsjælland & over 3.5 11.8% 12.9% 17.9% 0.72× 7.78
AGF & over 3.5 11.4% 12.9% 11.8% 1.09× 7.78
FC Nordsjælland & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 9.6% 0.82× 12.69
AGF & under 1.5 7.8% 7.9% 4.1% 1.91× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 6.1% 1.30× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 8.8% 0.89× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 7.2% 7.9% 8.8% 0.89× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (1UP) 54.6% 52.9% 1.89
AGF (1UP) 53.7% 52.8% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (2UP) 37.0% 37.0% 2.71
AGF (2UP) 36.0% 36.9% 2.71
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.5% 36.0% 2.78
AGF to win 2nd half 33.1% 34.5% 2.90
FC Nordsjælland to win 2nd half 31.4% 34.4% 2.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (+2.5) 93.5% 92.1% 91.7% 1.00× 1.09
AGF (+1.5) 82.5% 82.4% 78.8% 1.05× 1.21
FC Nordsjælland (+0.5) 64.0% 62.9% 70.0% 0.90× 1.59
AGF (+0.5) 63.0% 62.9% 55.1% 1.14× 1.59
FC Nordsjælland (-0.5) 37.0% 37.1% 44.9% 0.83× 2.69
AGF (-0.5) 36.0% 37.1% 30.0% 1.24× 2.69
FC Nordsjælland (-1.5) 17.5% 17.6% 21.2% 0.83× 5.68
FC Nordsjælland (-2.5) 6.5% 7.9% 8.3% 0.95× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to concede 75.4% 79.0% 80.7% 0.98× 1.27
AGF clean sheet 24.6% 21.0% 19.3% 1.09× 4.75
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to concede in 1st half 45.3% 50.8% 1.97
AGF clean sheet in 1st half 54.7% 49.2% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF under 6.5 corners 83.4% 81.0% 1.24
AGF over 2.5 corners 76.9% 75.8% 1.32
AGF under 5.5 corners 72.5% 72.3% 1.38
AGF over 3.5 corners 59.6% 56.9% 1.76
AGF under 4.5 corners 57.8% 56.9% 1.76
AGF over 4.5 corners 42.2% 43.1% 2.32
AGF under 3.5 corners 40.4% 43.1% 2.32
AGF over 5.5 corners 27.5% 27.7% 3.62
AGF under 2.5 corners 23.1% 24.2% 4.13
AGF over 6.5 corners 16.6% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF under 3.5 goals 94.9% 92.4% 93.7% 0.99× 1.08
AGF under 2.5 goals 83.8% 81.5% 84.0% 0.97× 1.23
AGF over 0.5 goals 74.8% 71.9% 73.6% 0.98× 1.39
AGF under 1.5 goals 59.9% 59.7% 57.9% 1.03× 1.68
AGF over 1.5 goals 40.1% 40.3% 42.1% 0.96× 2.48
AGF under 0.5 goals 25.2% 28.1% 26.4% 1.06× 3.56
AGF over 2.5 goals 16.2% 18.5% 16.0% 1.16× 5.40
AGF over 3.5 goals 5.1% 7.6% 6.3% 1.21× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF under 1.5 in 1st half 89.4% 89.7% 1.12
AGF under 0.5 in 1st half 57.6% 62.9% 1.59
AGF over 0.5 in 1st half 42.4% 37.1% 2.70
AGF over 1.5 in 1st half 10.6% 10.3% 9.67
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (away no bet) 57.9% 57.5% 63.9% 0.90× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.1% 42.5% 36.1% 1.18× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF even goals 53.2% 52.7% 57.6% 0.92× 1.90
AGF odd goals 46.8% 47.3% 42.4% 1.11× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.5% 83.3% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.5% 16.7% 5.98
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.3% 68.3% 1.47
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.7% 31.7% 3.15
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.4% 55.3% 1.81
FC Nordsjælland to score 2+ in a row 32.0% 28.5% 3.51
AGF to score 2+ in a row 31.2% 28.5% 3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.7% 16.5% 6.07
FC Nordsjælland to score 3+ in a row 10.2% 11.9% 8.38
AGF to score 3+ in a row 9.8% 5.6% 17.74
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF corners (+3.5) 86.2% 84.2% 1.19
FC Nordsjælland corners (+3.5) 86.2% 84.2% 1.19
AGF corners (+2.5) 78.4% 75.5% 1.33
FC Nordsjælland corners (+2.5) 78.4% 75.5% 1.33
AGF corners (+1.5) 68.2% 66.8% 1.50
FC Nordsjælland corners (+1.5) 68.2% 66.8% 1.50
FC Nordsjælland corners (-1.5) 31.8% 33.2% 3.01
AGF corners (-1.5) 31.8% 33.2% 3.01
FC Nordsjælland corners (-2.5) 21.6% 24.5% 4.08
AGF corners (-2.5) 21.6% 24.5% 4.08
FC Nordsjælland corners (-3.5) 13.8% 15.8% 6.31
AGF corners (-3.5) 13.8% 15.8% 6.31
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 51.9% 46.2% 2.16
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 18.3% 21.7% 4.60
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 87.9% 82.8% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 81.7% 79.8% 1.25
Under 10.5 corners 73.6% 72.5% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 63.5% 62.7% 1.60
Over 7.5 corners 60.4% 62.7% 1.60
Under 8.5 corners 51.9% 52.2% 1.91
Over 8.5 corners 48.1% 47.8% 2.09
Under 7.5 corners 39.6% 37.3% 2.68
Over 9.5 corners 36.5% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 26.4% 27.5% 3.64
Over 11.5 corners 18.3% 20.2% 4.96
Over 12.5 corners 12.1% 17.2% 5.81
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.7% 11.5% 11.0% 1.04× 8.73
2-1 8.4% 7.4% 10.2% 0.73× 13.46
0-0 7.0% 7.4% 6.1% 1.23× 13.46
0-1 7.8% 7.4% 4.1% 1.80× 13.46
1-0 7.9% 7.4% 9.6% 0.77× 13.46
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
0-2 5.9% 7.4% 5.5% 1.35× 13.46
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.46
2-2 5.8% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.46
0-3 2.7% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.58
0-4 0.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.59
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.57
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.59
2-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.58
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.59
3-0 2.8% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.58
3-1 3.9% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.57
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.58
3-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.59
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 6.20× 58.59
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.9% 0.89× 58.59
4-1 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.55× 58.58
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 2.2% 0.77× 58.59
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.6% 3.10× 58.59
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 6.20× 58.59
Any other score 2.8% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland leading at HT (DNB) 52.9% 55.7% 1.79
AGF leading at HT (DNB) 47.1% 44.3% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland or AGF (12) 73.1% 72.1% 74.7% 0.97× 1.39
FC Nordsjælland or draw (1X) 64.0% 63.6% 70.0% 0.91× 1.57
AGF or draw (X2) 63.0% 63.6% 55.1% 1.15× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland or draw at HT 73.2% 74.7% 1.34
AGF or draw at HT 69.9% 66.2% 1.51
FC Nordsjælland or AGF at HT 56.8% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland or draw (1UP) 64.0% 71.4% 1.40
AGF or draw (1UP) 63.0% 71.4% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF or draw in 2nd half 68.6% 65.6% 1.53
FC Nordsjælland or draw in 2nd half 66.9% 65.5% 1.53
FC Nordsjælland or AGF in 2nd half 64.5% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.5% 61.6% 1.63
Neither half drawn 37.5% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (DNB) 50.7% 50.9% 59.9% 0.85× 1.97
AGF (DNB) 49.3% 49.1% 40.1% 1.23× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to score first 46.9% 45.5% 2.20
AGF to score first 46.2% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 7.0% 7.4% 13.56
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 57.2% 54.8% 60.3% 0.91× 1.83
Not both teams to score 42.8% 45.2% 39.7% 1.14× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.4% 41.6% 49.6% 0.84× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 34.6% 34.4% 30.6% 1.13× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 12.3% 11.0% 1.12× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.4% 9.4% 0.89× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 83.6% 83.2% 80.4% 1.03× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 16.4% 16.8% 19.6% 0.86× 5.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 68.8% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 31.2% 32.3% 3.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 55.4% 59.7% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 25.3% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 13.4% 10.5% 9.52
Both score in both halves 6.0% 6.7% 15.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.7% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 19.3% 17.2% 5.81
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.4% 57.2% 1.75
A half without a goal 44.6% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.4% 43.0% 1.10× 2.11
4-6 goals 28.0% 26.4% 36.4% 0.73× 3.78
0-1 goals 22.7% 22.8% 19.3% 1.18× 4.38
7+ goals 2.4% 1.8% 1.9% 0.94× 55.19
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF to score exactly 1 34.7% 33.9% 31.7% 1.07× 2.95
AGF to score exactly 0 25.2% 27.4% 26.4% 1.04× 3.65
AGF to score exactly 2 24.0% 22.4% 26.4% 0.85× 4.47
AGF to score 3+ 16.2% 19.5% 16.0% 1.22× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to score exactly 1 34.5% 32.7% 33.6% 0.97× 3.06
FC Nordsjælland to score exactly 0 24.6% 23.3% 19.3% 1.21× 4.30
FC Nordsjælland to score exactly 2 24.2% 23.3% 25.9% 0.90× 4.30
FC Nordsjælland to score 3+ 16.7% 18.9% 21.8% 0.87× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.2% 43.2% 2.31
FC Nordsjælland leading at HT 30.1% 33.8% 2.96
AGF leading at HT 26.8% 25.3% 3.95
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland -1: 2 63.0% 62.4% 1.60
FC Nordsjælland -1: X 19.5% 17.5% 5.70
FC Nordsjælland -1: 1 17.5% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (0:1) 63.0% 61.3% 55.1% 1.11× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.5% 17.8% 24.0% 0.74× 5.62
FC Nordsjælland (0:1) 17.5% 17.8% 21.2% 0.84× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (0:2) 82.5% 82.8% 78.8% 1.05× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 11.1% 11.0% 13.2% 0.83× 9.09
FC Nordsjælland (0:2) 6.5% 7.7% 8.3% 0.93× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (0:3) 93.5% 92.7% 91.7% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.5% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 41.94
FC Nordsjælland (0:3) 1.9% 2.4% 5.0% 0.48× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (0:4) 98.1% 98.1% 95.0% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.5% 1.2% 3.3% 0.36× 83.30
FC Nordsjælland (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 0.62× 83.42
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (1:0) 64.0% 65.2% 70.0% 0.93× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 19.2% 17.0% 14.6% 1.17× 5.87
AGF (1:0) 16.9% 17.0% 15.7% 1.08× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland (2:0) 83.1% 84.5% 84.3% 1.00× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.7% 10.4% 8.3% 1.26× 9.63
AGF (2:0) 6.1% 6.5% 7.7% 0.84× 15.50
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.7% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 26.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.7% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to concede 74.8% 73.1% 73.6% 0.99× 1.37
FC Nordsjælland clean sheet 25.2% 26.9% 26.4% 1.02× 3.72
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland clean sheet in 1st half 57.6% 62.9% 1.59
FC Nordsjælland to concede in 1st half 42.4% 37.1% 2.70
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland under 6.5 corners 83.4% 81.3% 1.23
FC Nordsjælland over 2.5 corners 76.9% 76.1% 1.31
FC Nordsjælland under 5.5 corners 72.5% 71.5% 1.40
FC Nordsjælland over 3.5 corners 59.6% 57.4% 1.74
FC Nordsjælland under 4.5 corners 57.8% 57.4% 1.74
FC Nordsjælland over 4.5 corners 42.2% 42.6% 2.35
FC Nordsjælland under 3.5 corners 40.4% 42.6% 2.35
FC Nordsjælland over 5.5 corners 27.5% 28.5% 3.51
FC Nordsjælland under 2.5 corners 23.1% 23.9% 4.19
FC Nordsjælland over 6.5 corners 16.6% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland under 3.5 goals 94.6% 92.3% 91.2% 1.01× 1.08
FC Nordsjælland under 2.5 goals 83.3% 82.2% 78.2% 1.05× 1.22
FC Nordsjælland over 0.5 goals 75.4% 77.7% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
FC Nordsjælland under 1.5 goals 59.1% 58.8% 52.6% 1.12× 1.70
FC Nordsjælland over 1.5 goals 40.9% 41.2% 47.4% 0.87× 2.43
FC Nordsjælland under 0.5 goals 24.6% 22.3% 19.3% 1.16× 4.48
FC Nordsjælland over 2.5 goals 16.7% 17.9% 21.8% 0.82× 5.60
FC Nordsjælland over 3.5 goals 5.4% 7.7% 8.8% 0.88× 12.91
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland under 1.5 in 1st half 87.7% 90.0% 1.11
FC Nordsjælland over 0.5 in 1st half 45.3% 50.9% 1.97
FC Nordsjælland under 0.5 in 1st half 54.7% 49.1% 2.04
FC Nordsjælland over 1.5 in 1st half 12.3% 10.0% 9.96
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF (home no bet) 57.3% 56.7% 54.2% 1.05× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 42.7% 43.3% 45.8% 0.95× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland even goals 53.0% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.97
FC Nordsjælland odd goals 47.0% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.6% 32.4% 3.08
HT 1-0 18.9% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 17.3% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 10.6% 11.0% 9.07
HT 2-0 5.7% 7.1% 14.13
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.2% 44.56
Any other HT score 4.2% 2.2% 44.61
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.2% 44.69
HT 1-2 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 2-2 0.9% 2.2% 44.87
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland at HT / FC Nordsjælland at FT 21.7% 22.1% 4.52
AGF at HT / AGF at FT 19.6% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.2% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / AGF at FT 13.8% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / FC Nordsjælland at FT 13.2% 12.7% 7.89
FC Nordsjælland at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% 16.62
AGF at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.65
FC Nordsjælland at HT / AGF at FT 2.6% 3.4% 29.18
AGF at HT / FC Nordsjælland at FT 2.2% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to score last 46.9% 46.9% 2.13
AGF to score last 46.1% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 7.0% 7.4% 13.56
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.0% 92.7% 1.08
FC Nordsjælland to lead by 1 at any time 54.6% 50.6% 1.98
AGF to lead by 1 at any time 53.7% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.7% 44.0% 2.27
FC Nordsjælland to lead by 2 at any time 23.9% 19.6% 5.09
AGF to lead by 2 at any time 23.1% 19.6% 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.3% 14.9% 6.71
FC Nordsjælland to lead by 3 at any time 8.4% 6.5% 15.28
AGF to lead by 3 at any time 8.0% 6.5% 15.30
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF most corners 43.7% 43.2% 2.31
FC Nordsjælland most corners 43.7% 43.2% 2.31
Corners level 12.6% 10.7% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.7% 87.4% 85.4% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.1% 78.6% 73.8% 1.07× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.0% 72.4% 79.1% 0.92× 1.38
2-5 goals 71.0% 72.4% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.6% 63.5% 56.2% 1.13× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.4% 63.5% 60.6% 1.05× 1.58
3-6 goals 50.3% 53.1% 57.0% 0.93× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.7% 43.0% 1.13× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.3% 48.7% 50.1% 0.97× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.4% 43.6% 35.5% 1.23× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.7% 39.2% 38.6% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.0% 30.2% 36.4% 0.83× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.1% 24.5% 29.5% 0.83× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.6% 14.9% 18.7% 0.79× 6.73
7+ goals 2.4% 2.5% 1.9% 1.31× 39.47
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland never behind 39.3% 44.9% 2.23
AGF never behind 38.5% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.3% 50.8% 47.1% 1.08× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.7% 49.2% 52.9% 0.93× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.5% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.5% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 91.2% 1.01× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.0% 92.3% 93.9% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.1% 87.7% 79.6% 1.10× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.4% 77.4% 80.7% 0.96× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 69.6% 66.3% 62.0% 1.07× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.6% 52.4% 58.7% 0.89× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 47.4% 47.6% 41.3% 1.15× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 30.4% 33.7% 38.0% 0.89× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 22.7% 22.6% 19.3% 1.17× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 14.9% 12.3% 20.4% 0.61× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% 6.1% 1.27× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 8.8% 0.88× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.5% 97.3% 97.9% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.1% 92.5% 90.0% 1.03× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.3% 81.1% 75.3% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.9% 67.4% 75.3% 0.90× 1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 60.9% 62.1% 52.1% 1.19× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 39.1% 37.9% 47.9% 0.79× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 30.1% 32.6% 24.7% 1.32× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.7% 18.9% 24.7% 0.76× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.9% 7.5% 10.0% 0.76× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.33× 36.37
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.4% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.4% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.8% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.6% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.6% 9.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.1% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.6% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.0% 1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 47.0% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.4% 20.1% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.9% 17.2% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF not to score in both halves 76.1% 78.3% 1.28
FC Nordsjælland not to score in both halves 75.1% 78.3% 1.28
FC Nordsjælland to score in both halves 24.9% 21.7% 4.61
AGF to score in both halves 23.9% 21.7% 4.62
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 57.2% 58.2% 60.3% 0.96× 1.72
Only FC Nordsjælland scores 18.2% 16.1% 20.7% 0.78× 6.20
Only AGF scores 17.7% 16.1% 13.5% 1.19× 6.20
Neither team scores 7.0% 7.2% 6.1% 1.18× 13.95
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.7% 22.7% 22.3% 1.02× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 20.9% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 15.7% 17.4% 13.5% 1.29× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.5% 17.4% 17.9% 0.97× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.6% 7.6% 11.8% 0.64× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 7.0% 7.6% 6.1% 1.26× 13.14
6 or more goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.8% 0.86× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.6% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.4% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 19.9% 17.0% 5.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF not to win both halves 91.0% 93.9% 1.07
FC Nordsjælland not to win both halves 90.4% 93.9% 1.07
FC Nordsjælland to win both halves 9.6% 6.1% 16.42
AGF to win both halves 9.0% 6.1% 16.46
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
FC Nordsjælland to win either half 51.9% 54.7% 1.83
AGF to win either half 50.9% 54.7% 1.83
AGF to win neither half 49.1% 45.3% 2.21
FC Nordsjælland to win neither half 48.1% 45.3% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
AGF not to win to nil 82.3% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.21
FC Nordsjælland not to win to nil 81.8% 83.0% 79.3% 1.05× 1.21
FC Nordsjælland to win to nil 18.2% 17.0% 20.7% 0.82× 5.87
AGF to win to nil 17.7% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.9% 27.8% 25.3% 1.10× 3.59
FC Nordsjælland by 1 19.5% 16.9% 24.0% 0.71× 5.90
AGF by 1 19.2% 16.9% 14.6% 1.16× 5.90
FC Nordsjælland by 2 11.1% 11.8% 13.2% 0.89× 8.47
AGF by 2 10.7% 11.8% 8.3% 1.43× 8.47
FC Nordsjælland by 3+ 6.5% 7.2% 8.3% 0.88× 13.81
AGF by 3+ 6.1% 7.2% 7.7% 0.94× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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