Fiorentina v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 6
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
3.20 – 0.08
Goals − xG
-2.11 – +1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
32.2%
Draw
28.8%
Bologna win
39.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.20–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.17–1.37 | 1-1 13% | 47% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 4.11 xGBologna 0.88 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Fiorentina |
Robin Gosens | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 17' |
 Bologna |
Juan Miranda | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 24' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.60 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 29' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hans Nicolussi Caviglia |
| 32' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 39' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 39' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.66 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Emil Holm |
| 57' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 59' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 64' |
Fiorentina |
Abdelhamid Sabiri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Ranieri |
| 65' |
Bologna |
Giovanni Fabbian | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Edin Dzeko | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Abdelhamid Sabiri |
| 71' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.14 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Edin Dzeko |
| 73' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 79' |
Fiorentina |
Albert Gudmundsson | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marin Pongracic |
| 79' |
Fiorentina |
Marin Pongracic | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Abdelhamid Sabiri |
| 82' |
Fiorentina |
Luca Ranieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 90' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dodô |
| 93' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 98' |
Fiorentina |
Dodô | 0.47 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 98' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Abdelhamid Sabiri |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1.78 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dodô DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.53 | 0.08 | 0.47 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.42 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.99 | 0.39 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Gosens DML | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Edin Dzeko Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelhamid Sabiri Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| Roberto Piccoli Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.80 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emil Holm DR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Giovanni Fabbian AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Thijs Dallinga Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jonathan Rowe Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Casale Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |