Fiorentina v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Fiorentina

09:00

Como

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 965h before kick-off

Fiorentina win

19.5%

model 19.8%

Draw

21.6%

model 23.6%

Como win

59.0%

model 56.6%

192259

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 12.1%
1-1 11.2%
0-2 10.5%
1-2 9.7%
0-0 7.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	49.7%	Under 2.5	50.3%
BTTS yes	49.7%	BTTS no	50.3%
Fiorentina 1+	60.3%	Fiorentina 2+	23.6%
Como 1+	82.4%	Como 2+	51.9%

Expected goals 0.92 – 1.74. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

85/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

90%

★ Best pick

Como (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 34%

56.8% fair odds 1.76

strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Fiorentina not to score in both halves

Score both halves · usually 76%

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Como carry the stronger rating, 1723 Elo against 1504.
Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.71.
Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Away from home Como average 1.85 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.90).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Como have an estimated 59.0% win probability, against 21.6% for the draw and 19.5% for Fiorentina. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.92 for Fiorentina and 1.74 for Como.

Why Fiorentina

Fiorentina have created 0.98 xG a match over their last five while Como have allowed 1.02. At home Fiorentina average 1.44 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.6%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Como can win

Como carry the stronger rating, 1723 Elo against 1504. Como have created 1.88 xG a match over their last five while Fiorentina have allowed 1.71. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five. Away from home Como average 1.85 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Fiorentina were missing 1.55 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Key players

Fiorentina's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Moise Kean (0.52), Alieu Njie (0.40), Albert Gudmundsson (0.33). Como's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Tasos Douvikas (0.47), Nico Paz (0.38), Lucas Da Cunha (0.31).

Availability

2 of Fiorentina's top three contributors did not start their last match. 73% of Fiorentina's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fiorentina: 44% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.15 xG a match from set pieces. Como: 61% possession, 19.8 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.45 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Como are the model's most likely outcome at 59.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 85/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WDDLDWDLLL last 10 scored 6 from 9.8 xG conceded 15 from 17.1 xG

Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LLWDWWWDWW last 10 scored 19 from 18.8 xG conceded 10 from 10.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	202457	0.92–1.74	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	282547	1.17–1.57	1-1 12%	52%	55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win	52.6%	51.4%	33.9%	1.52×	1.94
Fiorentina to win	24.0%	24.5%	39.4%	0.62×	4.09
Draw	23.4%	24.5%	26.8%	0.91×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & not both score	27.0%	25.2%	20.9%	1.21×	3.97
Como & both teams score	25.5%	25.2%	13.2%	1.91×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	17.8%	17.9%	18.7%	0.96×	5.58
Fiorentina & both teams score	12.5%	13.3%	17.0%	0.78×	7.54
Fiorentina & not both score	11.5%	13.3%	22.5%	0.59×	7.55
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	8.2%	1.02×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como & over 1.5	42.8%	40.3%	24.6%	1.64×	2.48
Como & over 2.5	34.1%	30.9%	18.0%	1.72×	3.24
Como & under 3.5	33.4%	30.9%	26.6%	1.16×	3.24
Como & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	16.1%	1.12×	5.56
Como & over 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	7.5%	2.41×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	29.1%	0.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	17.8%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Fiorentina & under 3.5	17.2%	18.0%	29.4%	0.61×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Fiorentina & over 2.5	14.3%	12.9%	22.5%	0.57×	7.77
Fiorentina & under 2.5	9.7%	7.9%	17.0%	0.46×	12.69
Como & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.69
Fiorentina & under 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.70
Fiorentina & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	10.1%	0.78×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.8%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (1UP)	67.1%	69.9%	51.1%	1.37×	1.43
Fiorentina (1UP)	42.5%	39.4%	54.6%	0.72×	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (2UP)	52.6%	55.6%	36.5%	1.53×	1.80
Fiorentina (2UP)	24.0%	23.8%	41.0%	0.58×	4.20

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win 2nd half	44.8%	41.2%	29.5%	1.40×	2.43
2nd half drawn	33.9%	34.5%	35.8%	0.96×	2.90
Fiorentina to win 2nd half	21.4%	23.1%	34.8%	0.66×	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (+2.5)	97.2%	96.3%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Como (+1.5)	90.8%	92.1%	82.9%	1.11×	1.09
Como (+0.5)	76.0%	78.4%	60.6%	1.29×	1.28
Como (-0.5)	52.6%	52.3%	33.9%	1.54×	1.91
Fiorentina (+0.5)	47.4%	47.7%	66.1%	0.72×	2.10
Fiorentina (-0.5)	24.0%	21.6%	39.4%	0.55×	4.64
Fiorentina (-1.5)	9.2%	7.9%	17.1%	0.46×	12.61
Fiorentina (-2.5)	2.8%	3.7%	7.6%	0.49×	26.89

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to concede	67.4%	72.5%	71.0%	1.02×	1.38
Como clean sheet	32.6%	27.5%	29.0%	0.95×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como clean sheet in 1st half	59.7%	58.6%	58.9%	1.00×	1.71
Como to concede in 1st half	40.3%	41.4%	41.1%	1.01×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 6.5 corners	86.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Como under 5.5 corners	77.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Como over 2.5 corners	68.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Como under 4.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Como over 3.5 corners	50.8%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Como under 3.5 corners	49.2%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Como over 4.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Como under 2.5 corners	31.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Como over 5.5 corners	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Como over 6.5 corners	13.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 3.5 goals	89.6%	87.9%	97.1%	0.91×	1.14
Como over 0.5 goals	83.0%	81.4%	69.4%	1.17×	1.23
Como under 2.5 goals	73.8%	72.0%	88.4%	0.81×	1.39
Como over 1.5 goals	52.8%	53.7%	34.6%	1.55×	1.86
Como under 1.5 goals	47.2%	46.3%	65.4%	0.71×	2.16
Como over 2.5 goals	26.2%	28.0%	11.6%	2.41×	3.57
Como under 0.5 goals	17.0%	18.6%	30.6%	0.61×	5.38
Como over 3.5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	2.9%	4.16×	8.27

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como under 1.5 in 1st half	82.6%	83.1%	90.1%	0.92×	1.20
Como over 0.5 in 1st half	52.8%	56.2%	41.1%	1.37×	1.78
Como under 0.5 in 1st half	47.2%	43.8%	58.9%	0.74×	2.28
Como over 1.5 in 1st half	17.4%	16.9%	9.9%	1.71×	5.91

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (away no bet)	50.7%	51.2%	59.5%	0.86×	1.95
Draw (away no bet)	49.3%	48.8%	40.5%	1.20×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como even goals	51.4%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.89
Como odd goals	48.6%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.5%	82.9%	87.2%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.5%	17.1%	12.8%	1.34×	5.86

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	67.0%	68.6%	59.6%	1.15×	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	33.0%	31.4%	40.4%	0.78×	3.19

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	59.6%	55.3%	52.8%	1.05×	1.81
Como to score 2+ in a row	44.4%	38.4%	27.6%	1.39×	2.60
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.1%	19.5%	17.3%	1.13×	5.12
Fiorentina to score 2+ in a row	21.9%	19.5%	31.1%	0.63×	5.12
Como to score 3+ in a row	18.0%	16.4%	7.7%	2.12×	6.12
Fiorentina to score 3+ in a row	5.4%	5.6%	9.7%	0.57×	17.85

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como corners (+3.5)	89.0%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fiorentina corners (+3.5)	83.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Como corners (+2.5)	82.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Fiorentina corners (+2.5)	75.0%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Como corners (+1.5)	72.8%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fiorentina corners (+1.5)	64.1%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Como corners (-1.5)	35.9%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Fiorentina corners (-1.5)	27.2%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Como corners (-2.5)	25.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Fiorentina corners (-2.5)	17.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Como corners (-3.5)	16.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Fiorentina corners (-3.5)	11.0%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	66.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
9-11 corners	22.2%	25.6%	—	—	3.91
12+ corners	11.1%	21.0%	—	—	4.75

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	92.8%	83.4%	—	—	1.20
Under 11.5 corners	88.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 10.5 corners	83.4%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 9.5 corners	76.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 8.5 corners	66.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 7.5 corners	55.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 7.5 corners	44.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 8.5 corners	33.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 9.5 corners	24.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 10.5 corners	16.7%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 11.5 corners	11.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.88
Over 12.5 corners	7.2%	16.6%	—	—	6.01

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.0%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.73
0-1	9.8%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.48
0-2	8.7%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
1-2	9.8%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	8.2%	0.90×	13.48
0-3	5.1%	7.4%	3.3%	2.25×	13.48
1-0	6.2%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
1-3	5.8%	7.4%	1.9%	3.91×	13.48
2-1	6.2%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.48
2-2	5.5%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.48
0-4	2.3%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.48
1-4	2.5%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	58.48
2-0	3.5%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.47
2-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.47
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.48
3-0	1.3%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.48
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.48
3-2	2.0%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.48
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.49
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.49
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.49
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
Any other score	4.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como leading at HT (DNB)	62.2%	65.8%	50.0%	1.32×	1.52
Fiorentina leading at HT (DNB)	37.8%	34.2%	50.0%	0.68×	2.92

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina or Como (12)	76.6%	75.5%	73.2%	1.03×	1.32
Como or draw (X2)	76.0%	75.5%	60.6%	1.25×	1.32
Fiorentina or draw (1X)	47.4%	48.6%	66.1%	0.74×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw at HT	77.4%	79.9%	72.5%	1.10×	1.25
Fiorentina or draw at HT	62.8%	62.1%	72.5%	0.86×	1.61
Fiorentina or Como at HT	59.8%	57.0%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw (1UP)	76.0%	83.8%	66.3%	1.26×	1.19
Fiorentina or draw (1UP)	47.4%	52.7%	71.3%	0.74×	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como or draw in 2nd half	78.6%	76.9%	65.2%	1.18×	1.30
Fiorentina or Como in 2nd half	66.1%	65.5%	64.2%	1.02×	1.53
Fiorentina or draw in 2nd half	55.2%	58.8%	70.5%	0.83×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.4%	61.5%	64.3%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.6%	38.5%	35.7%	1.08×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (DNB)	68.7%	67.2%	46.3%	1.45×	1.49
Fiorentina (DNB)	31.3%	32.8%	53.7%	0.61×	3.05

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score first	57.8%	62.0%	44.3%	1.40×	1.61
Fiorentina to score first	36.6%	32.8%	47.6%	0.69×	3.05
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.9%	54.9%	48.6%	1.13×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.1%	45.1%	51.4%	0.88×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.9%	41.6%	36.8%	1.13×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	33.8%	34.3%	41.0%	0.84×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	11.0%	12.3%	11.9%	1.04×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.3%	12.3%	10.5%	1.17×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	83.7%	83.1%	86.8%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	16.3%	16.9%	13.2%	1.29×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	71.0%	74.0%	74.8%	0.99×	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.0%	26.0%	25.2%	1.03×	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	55.9%	59.3%	63.2%	0.94×	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	22.8%	20.8%	20.4%	1.02×	4.80
Both score 1st half only	15.1%	15.5%	11.8%	1.32×	6.44
Both score in both halves	6.2%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.80

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	78.7%	81.5%	83.4%	0.98×	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	21.3%	18.5%	16.6%	1.11×	5.42

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.7%	57.3%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.3%	42.7%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.6%	47.4%	48.0%	0.99×	2.11
4-6 goals	30.0%	30.7%	23.5%	1.30×	3.26
0-1 goals	21.6%	22.8%	27.8%	0.82×	4.39
7+ goals	2.8%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	54.51

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score exactly 1	30.1%	33.8%	34.9%	0.97×	2.96
Como to score exactly 2	26.7%	27.4%	23.0%	1.19×	3.65
Como to score 3+	26.2%	27.4%	11.6%	2.35×	3.65
Como to score exactly 0	17.0%	19.6%	30.6%	0.64×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to score exactly 1	36.5%	35.6%	32.2%	1.11×	2.81
Fiorentina to score exactly 0	32.6%	32.7%	29.0%	1.13×	3.06
Fiorentina to score exactly 2	20.5%	23.2%	24.7%	0.94×	4.30
Fiorentina to score 3+	10.4%	14.3%	14.4%	0.99×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.2%	43.0%	45.2%	0.95×	2.32
Como leading at HT	37.2%	37.9%	27.5%	1.38×	2.64
Fiorentina leading at HT	22.6%	20.1%	27.5%	0.73×	4.97

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como -1: 1	47.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Como -1: 2	29.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Como -1: X	23.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:1)	76.0%	73.8%	60.6%	1.22×	1.36
Draw (0:1)	14.8%	13.9%	22.4%	0.62×	7.21
Fiorentina (0:1)	9.2%	9.2%	17.1%	0.54×	10.82

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:2)	90.8%	90.8%	82.9%	1.09×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.4%	7.7%	9.6%	0.80×	12.96
Fiorentina (0:2)	2.8%	3.8%	7.6%	0.50×	26.59

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:3)	97.2%	96.6%	92.4%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.1%	2.4%	4.6%	0.52×	42.17
Fiorentina (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	2.3%	0.52×	83.62
Fiorentina (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.0%	1.18×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (1:0)	47.4%	49.7%	66.1%	0.75×	2.01
Como (1:0)	29.2%	25.2%	14.2%	1.77×	3.98
Draw (1:0)	23.4%	21.8%	19.9%	1.10×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina (2:0)	70.8%	76.3%	85.8%	0.89×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	16.1%	15.6%	8.5%	1.85×	6.39
Como (2:0)	13.1%	10.4%	5.8%	1.78×	9.63

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.8%	48.1%	46.6%	1.03×	2.08
1st half highest scoring	29.9%	26.6%	26.7%	0.99×	3.77
Halves equal	24.4%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede	83.0%	80.8%	69.4%	1.17×	1.24
Fiorentina clean sheet	17.0%	19.2%	30.6%	0.63×	5.21

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina to concede in 1st half	52.8%	56.2%	41.1%	1.37×	1.78
Fiorentina clean sheet in 1st half	47.2%	43.8%	58.9%	0.74×	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 6.5 corners	90.1%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Fiorentina under 5.5 corners	82.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Fiorentina under 4.5 corners	71.5%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Fiorentina over 2.5 corners	62.3%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Fiorentina under 3.5 corners	56.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fiorentina over 3.5 corners	43.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Fiorentina under 2.5 corners	37.7%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Fiorentina over 4.5 corners	28.5%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Fiorentina over 5.5 corners	17.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Fiorentina over 6.5 corners	9.9%	10.7%	—	—	9.35

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 3.5 goals	97.3%	96.4%	95.4%	1.01×	1.04
Fiorentina under 2.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	85.6%	1.02×	1.15
Fiorentina under 1.5 goals	69.1%	67.9%	61.0%	1.11×	1.47
Fiorentina over 0.5 goals	67.4%	67.9%	71.0%	0.96×	1.47
Fiorentina under 0.5 goals	32.6%	32.1%	29.0%	1.11×	3.11
Fiorentina over 1.5 goals	30.9%	32.1%	39.0%	0.82×	3.11
Fiorentina over 2.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	14.4%	0.88×	7.86
Fiorentina over 3.5 goals	2.7%	3.6%	4.6%	0.80×	27.49

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina under 1.5 in 1st half	90.5%	95.2%	90.1%	1.06×	1.05
Fiorentina under 0.5 in 1st half	59.7%	58.2%	58.9%	0.99×	1.72
Fiorentina over 0.5 in 1st half	40.3%	41.8%	41.1%	1.02×	2.39
Fiorentina over 1.5 in 1st half	9.5%	4.8%	9.9%	0.48×	20.96

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como (home no bet)	69.2%	64.0%	55.8%	1.15×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	30.8%	36.0%	44.2%	0.82×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina even goals	55.3%	55.4%	56.7%	0.98×	1.80
Fiorentina odd goals	44.7%	44.6%	43.3%	1.03×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.2%	28.9%	34.3%	0.84×	3.46
HT 0-1	21.2%	24.1%	18.5%	1.30×	4.15
HT 1-0	14.5%	10.9%	18.2%	0.60×	9.13
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.17
HT 0-2	7.9%	7.1%	5.4%	1.31×	14.04
Any other HT score	5.6%	7.1%	3.0%	2.34×	14.07
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.3%	2.5%	0.91×	43.31
HT 2-0	3.8%	2.3%	5.6%	0.41×	43.33
HT 2-1	2.8%	2.3%	2.3%	1.01×	43.40
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	0.6%	3.63×	43.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como at HT / Como at FT	31.2%	32.8%	19.2%	1.70×	3.05
Draw at HT / Como at FT	18.0%	16.8%	12.9%	1.30×	5.96
Fiorentina at HT / Fiorentina at FT	14.0%	12.7%	21.3%	0.60×	7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.6%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.88
Draw at HT / Fiorentina at FT	8.6%	6.0%	15.8%	0.38×	16.63
Fiorentina at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	4.4%	1.35×	16.73
Como at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	5.9%	0.58×	28.79
Fiorentina at HT / Como at FT	3.4%	3.5%	2.0%	1.71×	28.83
Como at HT / Fiorentina at FT	1.5%	3.5%	2.5%	1.37×	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to score last	57.8%	56.5%	43.5%	1.30×	1.77
Fiorentina to score last	36.6%	38.5%	48.4%	0.80×	2.60
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	8.2%	0.91×	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Como to lead by 1 at any time	67.1%	69.5%	51.1%	1.36×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	50.3%	50.6%	42.7%	1.19×	1.98
Fiorentina to lead by 1 at any time	42.5%	39.3%	54.6%	0.72×	2.55
Como to lead by 2 at any time	36.1%	34.8%	20.1%	1.73×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.8%	15.0%	14.6%	1.03×	6.68
Como to lead by 3 at any time	15.8%	14.9%	6.3%	2.35×	6.72
Fiorentina to lead by 2 at any time	14.5%	10.5%	22.9%	0.46×	9.51
Fiorentina to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.7%	8.4%	0.20×	60.38

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como most corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fiorentina most corners	38.8%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	12.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.1%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.8%	78.6%	80.6%	0.98×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.6%	78.6%	71.4%	1.10×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.1%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
1-3 goals	61.6%	63.4%	67.6%	0.94×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.7%	63.4%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
3-6 goals	52.4%	53.2%	46.5%	1.15×	1.88
3-5 goals	47.9%	48.7%	44.6%	1.09×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.6%	48.7%	48.0%	1.01×	2.06
1-2 goals	39.2%	39.2%	44.7%	0.88×	2.55
3-4 goals	38.5%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
4-6 goals	30.0%	35.4%	23.5%	1.50×	2.83
4-5 goals	25.5%	30.2%	21.6%	1.40×	3.31
5-6 goals	13.9%	14.9%	10.5%	1.42×	6.72
7+ goals	2.8%	2.6%	0.9%	2.88×	39.20

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como never behind	52.0%	61.9%	45.4%	1.36×	1.62
Fiorentina never behind	27.3%	30.1%	48.9%	0.62×	3.33

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.7%	56.8%	0.91×	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.3%	43.2%	1.12×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.9%	52.1%	51.4%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.1%	47.9%	48.6%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	91.8%	1.01×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	92.7%	92.3%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	83.3%	82.4%	88.7%	0.93×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	78.4%	77.4%	72.2%	1.07×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	67.1%	66.2%	75.7%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	55.2%	58.8%	47.2%	1.25×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	44.8%	41.2%	52.8%	0.78×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	32.9%	33.8%	24.3%	1.39×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	21.6%	22.6%	27.8%	0.81×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	16.7%	17.6%	11.3%	1.56×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	7.3%	7.7%	2.8%	2.78×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	8.2%	0.94×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.0%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	91.9%	92.5%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	80.1%	81.0%	87.0%	0.93×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	71.9%	72.6%	62.9%	1.15×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	57.7%	55.4%	68.5%	0.81×	1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	42.3%	44.6%	31.5%	1.41×	2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	28.1%	27.4%	37.1%	0.74×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	19.9%	19.0%	13.0%	1.46×	5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	8.1%	7.5%	3.0%	2.48×	13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.0%	2.8%	0.9%	3.06×	36.13

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.5%	88.9%	91.9%	0.97×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.8%	71.2%	65.7%	1.08×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.8%	63.7%	70.8%	0.90×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.2%	36.3%	29.2%	1.24×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.2%	28.8%	34.3%	0.84×	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.5%	11.1%	8.1%	1.37×	9.04

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	80.3%	82.8%	78.0%	1.06×	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	77.7%	79.7%	82.4%	0.97×	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	53.2%	56.8%	0.94×	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	46.8%	43.2%	1.09×	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	22.3%	20.3%	17.6%	1.15×	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	19.7%	17.2%	22.0%	0.78×	5.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to score in both halves	81.7%	84.3%	76.2%	1.11×	1.19
Como not to score in both halves	66.2%	70.4%	78.7%	0.89×	1.42
Como to score in both halves	33.8%	29.6%	21.3%	1.39×	3.38
Fiorentina to score in both halves	18.3%	15.7%	23.8%	0.66×	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.9%	58.4%	48.6%	1.20×	1.71
Only Como scores	27.0%	26.1%	20.9%	1.25×	3.83
Only Fiorentina scores	11.5%	10.9%	22.5%	0.49×	9.15
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	8.2%	0.87×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.2%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	16.0%	17.4%	19.7%	0.88×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	16.2%	17.4%	13.2%	1.32×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	9.4%	7.6%	8.6%	0.89×	13.08
6 or more goals	7.3%	7.6%	2.8%	2.74×	13.09
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	8.2%	0.93×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.3%	45.1%	43.2%	1.04×	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	32.0%	33.4%	34.9%	0.96×	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	19.7%	17.2%	22.0%	0.78×	5.80

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win both halves	95.2%	97.2%	90.3%	1.08×	1.03
Como not to win both halves	83.3%	84.2%	91.4%	0.92×	1.19
Como to win both halves	16.7%	15.8%	8.6%	1.83×	6.35
Fiorentina to win both halves	4.8%	2.8%	9.7%	0.29×	35.21

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como to win either half	65.3%	67.8%	48.4%	1.40×	1.48
Fiorentina to win neither half	60.8%	65.0%	47.5%	1.37×	1.54
Fiorentina to win either half	39.2%	35.0%	52.5%	0.67×	2.86
Como to win neither half	34.7%	32.2%	51.6%	0.62×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fiorentina not to win to nil	88.5%	88.2%	77.5%	1.14×	1.13
Como not to win to nil	73.0%	75.3%	79.1%	0.95×	1.33
Como to win to nil	27.0%	24.7%	20.9%	1.18×	4.05
Fiorentina to win to nil	11.5%	11.8%	22.5%	0.52×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Como by 1	23.4%	24.2%	19.9%	1.22×	4.14
Draw	23.4%	24.2%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Como by 2	16.1%	16.9%	8.5%	2.00×	5.91
Fiorentina by 1	14.8%	11.8%	22.4%	0.53×	8.47
Como by 3+	13.1%	11.8%	5.8%	2.03×	8.47
Fiorentina by 2	6.4%	7.3%	9.6%	0.75×	13.79
Fiorentina by 3+	2.8%	2.7%	7.6%	0.36×	36.99