Fiorentina v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 22 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
5 – 9
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.18 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.34 – -0.65
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fiorentina win
25.4%
Draw
27.3%
Juventus win
47.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.5 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWDDWLDWWD last 10
scored 11
from 18.5 xG
conceded 6
from 6.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.56 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.37 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fiorentina 0.66 xGJuventus 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fiorentina attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23' |
 Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
| 24' |
 Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Rolando Mandragora |
| 30' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rolando Mandragora |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 45' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 47' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Moise Kean |
| 49' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Fiorentina |
Fabiano Parisi | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 54' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 61' |
Fiorentina |
Niccolò Fortini | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 66' |
Fiorentina |
Moise Kean | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 71' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fabio Miretti |
| 74' |
Juventus |
Fabio Miretti | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 78' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dusan Vlahovic |
| 79' |
Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Juventus |
Weston McKennie | 0.48 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabio Miretti |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 92' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Weston McKennie |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moise Kean FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Pablo Marí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fabiano Parisi DML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Simon Sohm MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Dodô DMR | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Niccolò Fortini Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Gudmundsson Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eddy Kouadio Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia Viti Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dusan Vlahovic FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.52 | 0.19 | 0.65 |
| Weston McKennie AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.50 | 0.19 | 0.69 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.23 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.20 |
| Teun Koopmeiners DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Filip Kostic DML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Fabio Miretti Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| Juan Cabal Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Conceição Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Loïs Openda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jonathan Christian David Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |