Flamengo v Corinthians — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Flamengo

16:30

Corinthians

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 157h before kick-off

Flamengo win

67.9%

model 67.0%

Draw

21.9%

model 21.7%

Corinthians win

10.3%

model 11.3%

682210

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 13.2%
1-0 12.1%
1-1 10.3%
2-1 9.5%
3-0 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	51.6%	Under 2.5	48.4%
BTTS yes	45.4%	BTTS no	54.6%
Flamengo 1+	86.8%	Flamengo 2+	60.0%
Corinthians 1+	51.2%	Corinthians 2+	16.2%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.72. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

80/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Flamengo (-0.5)

Asian handicap · usually 49%

69.1% fair odds 1.45

strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Flamengo leading at HT (DNB)

DNB half time

83.3% fair odds 1.20

weak signal · 66 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1775 Elo against 1540.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Flamengo have an estimated 67.9% win probability, against 21.9% for the draw and 10.3% for Corinthians. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Flamengo and 0.72 for Corinthians.

Why Flamengo

Flamengo carry the stronger rating, 1775 Elo against 1540. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.9%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Corinthians can win

They have had 14 days' rest to Flamengo's 11.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Flamengo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Corinthians, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Flamengo: 56% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Corinthians: 53% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Flamengo are the model's most likely outcome at 67.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 13.2%. Confidence 80/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	672211	2.02–0.72	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	682210	1.92–0.61	2-0 15%	46%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win	67.5%	65.1%	48.9%	1.33×	1.54
Draw	22.4%	24.5%	27.2%	0.90×	4.09
Corinthians to win	10.1%	13.2%	24.0%	0.55×	7.55

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & not both score	45.2%	42.8%	28.0%	1.53×	2.34
Flamengo & both teams score	22.3%	21.9%	21.0%	1.04×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	13.5%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.54
Draw & not both score	8.9%	8.4%	6.7%	1.25×	11.92
Corinthians & not both score	5.8%	8.4%	13.9%	0.60×	11.94
Corinthians & both teams score	4.3%	4.9%	10.4%	0.47×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo & over 1.5	53.2%	48.8%	36.8%	1.33×	2.05
Flamengo & under 3.5	47.3%	45.2%	36.8%	1.23×	2.21
Flamengo & over 2.5	38.6%	34.9%	27.5%	1.27×	2.87
Flamengo & under 2.5	28.9%	26.0%	21.5%	1.21×	3.84
Flamengo & over 3.5	20.3%	21.7%	12.3%	1.77×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.2%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Flamengo & under 1.5	14.3%	12.9%	12.3%	1.05×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	13.5%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	8.9%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.69
Corinthians & under 3.5	8.6%	7.9%	18.6%	0.42×	12.69
Corinthians & over 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	17.2%	0.46×	12.70
Corinthians & under 2.5	5.4%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.70
Corinthians & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	13.2%	0.36×	20.93
Corinthians & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.94
Draw & over 2.5	3.1%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	3.1%	4.8%	7.2%	0.67×	20.94
Corinthians & over 3.5	1.5%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (1UP)	76.3%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Corinthians (1UP)	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2UP)	67.5%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Corinthians (2UP)	10.1%	13.0%	—	—	7.68

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to win 2nd half	53.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
2nd half drawn	34.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Corinthians to win 2nd half	12.1%	12.2%	—	—	8.20

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (+0.5)	89.9%	88.5%	76.0%	1.17×	1.13
Corinthians (+2.5)	79.0%	78.4%	90.8%	0.86×	1.28
Flamengo (-0.5)	67.5%	68.7%	48.9%	1.41×	1.46
Corinthians (+1.5)	57.7%	57.0%	76.8%	0.74×	1.75
Flamengo (-1.5)	42.3%	43.0%	23.2%	1.85×	2.33
Corinthians (+0.5)	32.5%	31.3%	51.1%	0.61×	3.20
Flamengo (-2.5)	21.0%	21.6%	9.2%	2.33×	4.64
Corinthians (-0.5)	10.1%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.71

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to concede	85.3%	86.4%	79.6%	1.09×	1.16
Corinthians clean sheet	14.7%	13.6%	20.4%	0.67×	7.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to concede in 1st half	56.1%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Corinthians clean sheet in 1st half	43.9%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 6.5 corners	86.5%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Corinthians under 5.5 corners	78.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Corinthians over 2.5 corners	66.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Corinthians under 4.5 corners	66.4%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Corinthians under 3.5 corners	51.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Corinthians over 3.5 corners	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Corinthians under 2.5 corners	33.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Corinthians over 4.5 corners	33.6%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Corinthians over 5.5 corners	21.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Corinthians over 6.5 corners	13.5%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 3.5 goals	99.6%	97.6%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Corinthians under 2.5 goals	97.5%	97.5%	90.9%	1.07×	1.03
Corinthians under 1.5 goals	87.3%	87.9%	72.0%	1.22×	1.14
Corinthians under 0.5 goals	54.1%	53.7%	34.6%	1.55×	1.86
Corinthians over 0.5 goals	45.9%	46.3%	65.4%	0.71×	2.16
Corinthians over 1.5 goals	12.7%	12.1%	28.0%	0.43×	8.25
Corinthians over 2.5 goals	2.5%	2.5%	9.1%	0.27×	40.75
Corinthians over 3.5 goals	0.4%	2.4%	2.1%	1.18×	40.86

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians under 1.5 in 1st half	97.4%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Corinthians under 0.5 in 1st half	78.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Corinthians over 0.5 in 1st half	21.8%	24.0%	—	—	4.17
Corinthians over 1.5 in 1st half	2.6%	4.1%	—	—	24.31

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (away no bet)	75.1%	73.6%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.9%	26.4%	35.8%	0.74×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians even goals	64.6%	59.1%	54.9%	1.08×	1.69
Corinthians odd goals	35.4%	40.9%	45.1%	0.91×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	87.6%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.4%	12.3%	—	—	8.13

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.9%	60.6%	—	—	1.65
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.1%	39.4%	—	—	2.54

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	57.4%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Flamengo to score 2+ in a row	52.0%	51.3%	—	—	1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.6%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Flamengo to score 3+ in a row	24.6%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Corinthians to score 2+ in a row	8.1%	5.7%	—	—	17.63
Corinthians to score 3+ in a row	1.1%	2.5%	—	—	39.92

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo corners (+3.5)	91.9%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Flamengo corners (+2.5)	87.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Flamengo corners (+1.5)	80.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Corinthians corners (+3.5)	66.8%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Corinthians corners (+2.5)	57.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Flamengo corners (-1.5)	52.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Corinthians corners (+1.5)	47.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Flamengo corners (-2.5)	42.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Flamengo corners (-3.5)	33.2%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Corinthians corners (-1.5)	19.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Corinthians corners (-2.5)	12.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Corinthians corners (-3.5)	8.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.8%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	29.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
9-11 corners	27.2%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	78.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	71.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	66.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	62.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	37.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	33.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	29.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	22.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	14.3%	11.5%	12.3%	0.93×	8.73
2-0	14.6%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.73
1-1	10.3%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.73
0-0	8.9%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
2-1	9.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
3-0	9.3%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
3-1	5.7%	7.4%	4.0%	1.86×	13.48
0-1	3.9%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.47
0-2	1.5%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.48
0-3	0.3%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.49
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-2	2.9%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.47
1-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.49
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
2-2	2.8%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.47
2-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.49
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.48
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
4-0	4.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.46
4-1	2.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.47
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo leading at HT (DNB)	82.2%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Corinthians leading at HT (DNB)	17.8%	13.5%	—	—	7.42

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw (1X)	89.9%	86.8%	76.0%	1.14×	1.15
Flamengo or Corinthians (12)	77.6%	75.5%	72.8%	1.04×	1.32
Corinthians or draw (X2)	32.5%	34.9%	51.1%	0.68×	2.86

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw at HT	89.7%	88.4%	—	—	1.13
Flamengo or Corinthians at HT	58.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Corinthians or draw at HT	52.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw (1UP)	89.9%	92.1%	—	—	1.09
Corinthians or draw (1UP)	32.5%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo or draw in 2nd half	87.9%	87.8%	—	—	1.14
Flamengo or Corinthians in 2nd half	65.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Corinthians or draw in 2nd half	46.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.7%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (DNB)	87.0%	87.2%	67.0%	1.30×	1.15
Corinthians (DNB)	13.0%	12.8%	33.0%	0.39×	7.79

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score first	69.0%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Corinthians to score first	22.1%	22.7%	—	—	4.40
No goal scored	8.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.21

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	59.9%	54.9%	48.2%	1.14×	1.82
Both teams to score	40.1%	45.1%	51.8%	0.87×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	43.3%	41.6%	38.9%	1.07×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	29.8%	33.6%	38.2%	0.88×	2.98
Not both score & over 2.5	16.6%	21.7%	9.6%	2.27×	4.61
Both score & under 2.5	10.3%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.8%	89.1%	87.3%	1.02×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.2%	10.9%	12.7%	0.85×	9.19

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	79.2%	75.5%	—	—	1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half	20.8%	24.5%	—	—	4.09

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	69.3%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Both score 2nd half only	18.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Both score 1st half only	9.9%	6.9%	—	—	14.60
Both score in both halves	2.5%	4.9%	—	—	20.21

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	87.6%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	12.4%	13.9%	—	—	7.20

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	50.9%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A half without a goal	49.1%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.0%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	27.2%	26.4%	25.6%	1.03×	3.78
4-6 goals	23.4%	22.8%	24.2%	0.94×	4.38
7+ goals	1.5%	1.8%	0.6%	2.87×	54.65

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to score exactly 0	54.1%	47.4%	34.6%	1.37×	2.11
Corinthians to score exactly 1	33.2%	33.8%	37.6%	0.90×	2.96
Corinthians to score exactly 2	10.2%	12.8%	19.1%	0.67×	7.81
Corinthians to score 3+	2.5%	4.5%	9.1%	0.50×	22.14

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score 3+	30.1%	32.6%	18.5%	1.77×	3.06
Flamengo to score exactly 1	28.2%	26.5%	34.2%	0.78×	3.77
Flamengo to score exactly 2	27.0%	26.5%	27.2%	0.97×	3.77
Flamengo to score exactly 0	14.7%	14.3%	20.4%	0.70×	6.97

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo leading at HT	47.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	41.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Corinthians leading at HT	10.3%	11.6%	—	—	8.65

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo -1: 1	42.3%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Flamengo -1: 2	32.5%	30.1%	—	—	3.33
Flamengo -1: X	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (0:1)	42.3%	42.7%	23.2%	1.84×	2.34
Corinthians (0:1)	32.5%	30.0%	51.1%	0.59×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	25.2%	27.0%	25.8%	1.05×	3.71

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:2)	57.7%	62.8%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
Draw (0:2)	21.3%	20.3%	14.2%	1.43×	4.92
Flamengo (0:2)	21.0%	20.3%	9.2%	2.20×	4.92

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:3)	79.0%	80.6%	90.8%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.4%	10.0%	6.7%	1.50×	9.99
Flamengo (0:3)	8.6%	5.8%	2.7%	2.16×	17.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians (0:4)	91.4%	94.6%	97.3%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.6%	4.6%	1.8%	2.64×	21.63
Flamengo (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	1.1%	1.08×	83.34

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (1:0)	89.9%	86.5%	76.0%	1.14×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	7.4%	6.9%	14.7%	0.47×	14.44
Corinthians (1:0)	2.7%	3.2%	9.6%	0.33×	31.68

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo (2:0)	97.3%	96.9%	90.4%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	2.2%	2.3%	6.2%	0.36×	44.23
Corinthians (2:0)	0.5%	2.3%	3.5%	0.64×	44.35

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.3%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet	54.1%	53.1%	34.6%	1.54×	1.88
Flamengo to concede	45.9%	46.9%	65.4%	0.72×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo clean sheet in 1st half	78.2%	78.4%	—	—	1.28
Flamengo to concede in 1st half	21.8%	21.6%	—	—	4.63

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo over 2.5 corners	84.6%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Flamengo over 3.5 corners	73.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Flamengo under 6.5 corners	64.1%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Flamengo over 4.5 corners	60.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Flamengo under 5.5 corners	52.7%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Flamengo over 5.5 corners	47.3%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Flamengo under 4.5 corners	40.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Flamengo over 6.5 corners	35.9%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Flamengo under 3.5 corners	27.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Flamengo under 2.5 corners	15.4%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 3.5 goals	87.2%	87.3%	94.3%	0.93×	1.15
Flamengo over 0.5 goals	85.3%	87.2%	79.6%	1.10×	1.15
Flamengo under 2.5 goals	69.9%	67.9%	81.5%	0.83×	1.47
Flamengo over 1.5 goals	57.1%	58.8%	45.5%	1.29×	1.70
Flamengo under 1.5 goals	42.9%	41.2%	54.5%	0.76×	2.43
Flamengo over 2.5 goals	30.1%	32.1%	18.5%	1.74×	3.11
Flamengo under 0.5 goals	14.7%	12.8%	20.4%	0.63×	7.84
Flamengo over 3.5 goals	12.8%	12.7%	5.7%	2.22×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo under 1.5 in 1st half	80.0%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Flamengo over 0.5 in 1st half	56.1%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Flamengo under 0.5 in 1st half	43.9%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Flamengo over 1.5 in 1st half	20.0%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	68.9%	64.0%	53.1%	1.20×	1.56
Corinthians (home no bet)	31.1%	36.0%	46.9%	0.77×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo even goals	51.1%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Flamengo odd goals	48.9%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	34.5%	32.4%	—	—	3.09
HT 1-0	28.1%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
HT 2-0	11.7%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-1	8.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 1-1	7.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
Any other HT score	5.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-1	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.40
HT 0-2	1.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.53
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.55
HT 2-2	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.59

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo at HT / Flamengo at FT	43.3%	43.3%	—	—	2.31
Draw at HT / Flamengo at FT	22.0%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.4%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Corinthians at HT / Corinthians at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.77
Draw at HT / Corinthians at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Flamengo at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Corinthians at HT / Draw at FT	3.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Corinthians at HT / Flamengo at FT	2.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.88
Flamengo at HT / Corinthians at FT	0.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.94

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo to score last	69.2%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Corinthians to score last	21.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.82
No goal scored	8.9%	7.6%	—	—	13.21

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.1%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Flamengo to lead by 1 at any time	76.3%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Flamengo to lead by 2 at any time	46.9%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Corinthians to lead by 1 at any time	24.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	23.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Flamengo to lead by 3 at any time	23.1%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Corinthians to lead by 2 at any time	4.8%	1.7%	—	—	59.62
Corinthians to lead by 3 at any time	0.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.60

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo most corners	63.2%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Corinthians most corners	27.2%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	9.6%	8.5%	—	—	11.80

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.7%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.6%	81.8%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	71.4%	72.4%	73.9%	0.98×	1.38
2-5 goals	68.5%	69.0%	69.9%	0.99×	1.45
1-3 goals	66.2%	68.9%	68.8%	1.00×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.0%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.9%	43.6%	47.1%	0.92×	2.30
1-2 goals	44.7%	43.6%	45.9%	0.95×	2.30
3-5 goals	42.0%	43.6%	43.2%	1.01×	2.30
3-4 goals	35.1%	39.1%	36.1%	1.08×	2.56
4-6 goals	23.4%	24.5%	24.2%	1.01×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.5%	24.5%	20.2%	1.21×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.8%	8.7%	11.1%	0.78×	11.43
7+ goals	1.5%	2.5%	0.6%	4.00×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo never behind	67.0%	70.2%	—	—	1.42
Corinthians never behind	14.8%	13.3%	—	—	7.51

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.8%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.2%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.2%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.8%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	95.4%	1.00×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.1%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	88.7%	87.7%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.1%	77.3%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	72.8%	72.5%	74.4%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	53.6%	52.5%	52.4%	1.00×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	46.4%	47.5%	47.6%	1.00×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	27.2%	27.5%	25.6%	1.07×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	24.9%	22.7%	24.7%	0.92×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	11.3%	12.3%	11.6%	1.06×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	8.9%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	4.6%	0.98×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.3%	97.2%	95.0%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	86.9%	86.7%	86.6%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	68.3%	67.4%	68.0%	0.99×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	63.1%	62.1%	65.0%	0.96×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	36.9%	37.9%	35.0%	1.08×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	31.7%	32.6%	32.0%	1.02×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	13.1%	13.3%	13.4%	0.99×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.7%	2.8%	5.0%	0.56×	36.08
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	0.7%	4.17×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	90.6%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	70.8%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	65.5%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	34.5%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	29.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	9.4%	7.4%	—	—	13.45

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.9%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.26
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.8%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.2%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to score in both halves	93.3%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Flamengo not to score in both halves	62.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Flamengo to score in both halves	37.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Corinthians to score in both halves	6.7%	9.5%	—	—	10.52

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Flamengo scores	45.2%	50.4%	28.0%	1.80×	1.98
Both teams score	40.1%	46.5%	51.8%	0.90×	2.15
Neither team scores	8.9%	7.2%	6.7%	1.08×	13.90
Only Corinthians scores	5.8%	7.2%	13.9%	0.52×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.4%	25.0%	26.9%	0.93×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.5%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.2%	17.4%	19.1%	0.91×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	13.6%	12.1%	13.2%	0.91×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	8.9%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	6.9%	7.6%	7.2%	1.07×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.4%	4.4%	4.6%	0.96×	22.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	23.5%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to win both halves	98.7%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Flamengo not to win both halves	74.1%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Flamengo to win both halves	25.9%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Corinthians to win both halves	1.3%	2.7%	—	—	36.74

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians to win neither half	78.9%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Flamengo to win either half	75.6%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Flamengo to win neither half	24.4%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Corinthians to win either half	21.1%	20.1%	—	—	4.97

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Corinthians not to win to nil	94.2%	92.1%	86.1%	1.07×	1.09
Flamengo not to win to nil	54.8%	54.3%	72.0%	0.75×	1.84
Flamengo to win to nil	45.2%	45.7%	28.0%	1.63×	2.19
Corinthians to win to nil	5.8%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Flamengo by 1	25.2%	27.8%	25.8%	1.08×	3.59
Draw	22.4%	24.1%	27.2%	0.89×	4.14
Flamengo by 2	21.3%	24.1%	14.2%	1.70×	4.14
Flamengo by 3+	21.0%	24.1%	9.2%	2.61×	4.14
Corinthians by 1	7.4%	7.3%	14.7%	0.50×	13.78
Corinthians by 2	2.2%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	37.01
Corinthians by 3+	0.5%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.07