Fluminense FC v Vasco da Gama — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Fluminense FC

20:00

Vasco da Gama

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 2h before kick-off

Fluminense FC win

59.2%

model 62.3%

Draw

22.5%

model 22.2%

Vasco da Gama win

18.3%

model 15.5%

592318

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.5%
2-0 10.3%
2-1 9.9%
1-0 8.9%
3-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	58.8%	Under 2.5	41.2%
BTTS yes	55.1%	BTTS no	44.9%
Fluminense FC 1+	87.6%	Fluminense FC 2+	61.7%
Vasco da Gama 1+	61.8%	Vasco da Gama 2+	25.0%

Expected goals 2.09 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Fluminense FC over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 46%

62.4% fair odds 1.60

strong signal · 742 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Fluminense FC carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1423.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Fluminense FC have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Vasco da Gama. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.09 for Fluminense FC and 0.96 for Vasco da Gama.

Why Fluminense FC

Fluminense FC carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1423. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Vasco da Gama can win

Nothing in the data singles out Vasco da Gama.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Fluminense FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Vasco da Gama, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Fluminense FC: 62% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Vasco da Gama: 50% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 11.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Fluminense FC are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	622215	2.09–0.96	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	652114	2.16–0.93	2-0 11%	60%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win	64.6%	58.2%	48.9%	1.19×	1.72
Draw	21.3%	24.4%	27.2%	0.90×	4.09
Vasco da Gama to win	14.1%	13.3%	24.0%	0.55×	7.50

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC & not both score	34.1%	29.7%	28.0%	1.06×	3.36
Fluminense FC & both teams score	30.5%	29.7%	21.0%	1.41×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	15.8%	17.9%	20.7%	0.87×	5.58
Vasco da Gama & both teams score	8.0%	8.4%	10.4%	0.81×	11.93
Vasco da Gama & not both score	6.0%	8.4%	13.9%	0.60×	11.94
Draw & not both score	5.5%	8.4%	6.7%	1.25×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC & over 1.5	55.7%	54.9%	36.8%	1.49×	1.82
Fluminense FC & over 2.5	45.0%	45.2%	27.5%	1.64×	2.21
Fluminense FC & under 3.5	37.2%	34.9%	36.8%	0.95×	2.87
Fluminense FC & over 3.5	27.5%	26.0%	12.3%	2.12×	3.84
Fluminense FC & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	21.5%	0.84×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.8%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.6%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Vasco da Gama & over 1.5	10.8%	12.9%	17.2%	0.75×	7.77
Vasco da Gama & under 3.5	10.1%	12.9%	18.6%	0.69×	7.77
Fluminense FC & under 1.5	9.0%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.69
Vasco da Gama & over 2.5	8.8%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Vasco da Gama & under 2.5	5.3%	7.9%	11.0%	0.72×	12.70
Vasco da Gama & over 3.5	4.0%	4.8%	5.6%	0.86×	20.93
Vasco da Gama & under 1.5	3.3%	4.8%	7.0%	0.68×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (1UP)	76.4%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Vasco da Gama (1UP)	32.5%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (2UP)	64.6%	68.1%	—	—	1.47
Vasco da Gama (2UP)	14.1%	13.6%	—	—	7.37

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win 2nd half	52.6%	52.2%	—	—	1.92
2nd half drawn	31.0%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Vasco da Gama to win 2nd half	16.4%	18.9%	—	—	5.29

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (+0.5)	85.9%	88.5%	76.0%	1.17×	1.13
Vasco da Gama (+2.5)	77.9%	78.4%	90.8%	0.86×	1.28
Fluminense FC (-0.5)	64.6%	62.9%	48.9%	1.29×	1.59
Vasco da Gama (+1.5)	58.1%	57.0%	76.8%	0.74×	1.75
Fluminense FC (-1.5)	41.9%	43.0%	23.2%	1.85×	2.33
Vasco da Gama (+0.5)	35.4%	37.1%	51.1%	0.73×	2.70
Fluminense FC (-2.5)	22.1%	21.6%	9.2%	2.33×	4.64
Vasco da Gama (-0.5)	14.1%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede	88.5%	86.5%	79.6%	1.09×	1.16
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	11.5%	13.5%	20.4%	0.66×	7.40

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to concede in 1st half	60.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Vasco da Gama clean sheet in 1st half	39.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 6.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Vasco da Gama under 5.5 corners	75.8%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 corners	69.0%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Vasco da Gama under 4.5 corners	63.5%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 corners	52.0%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 corners	48.0%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Vasco da Gama over 4.5 corners	36.5%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 corners	31.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Vasco da Gama over 5.5 corners	24.2%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Vasco da Gama over 6.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 3.5 goals	98.5%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Vasco da Gama under 2.5 goals	93.3%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 goals	76.3%	76.2%	72.0%	1.06×	1.31
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 goals	60.3%	62.9%	65.4%	0.96×	1.59
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 goals	39.7%	37.1%	34.6%	1.07×	2.70
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 goals	23.7%	23.8%	28.0%	0.85×	4.21
Vasco da Gama over 2.5 goals	6.7%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.04
Vasco da Gama over 3.5 goals	1.5%	2.5%	2.1%	1.18×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama under 1.5 in 1st half	94.6%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Vasco da Gama under 0.5 in 1st half	69.1%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Vasco da Gama over 0.5 in 1st half	30.9%	31.5%	—	—	3.17
Vasco da Gama over 1.5 in 1st half	5.4%	5.7%	—	—	17.42

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (away no bet)	75.2%	73.6%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	24.8%	26.4%	35.8%	0.74×	3.78

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama even goals	57.9%	56.9%	54.9%	1.04×	1.76
Vasco da Gama odd goals	42.1%	43.1%	45.1%	0.96×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.2%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.8%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Fluminense FC to score 2+ in a row	56.2%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row	30.3%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
Fluminense FC to score 3+ in a row	27.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Vasco da Gama to score 2+ in a row	15.3%	16.3%	—	—	6.14
Vasco da Gama to score 3+ in a row	3.0%	2.6%	—	—	38.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC corners (+3.5)	88.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Fluminense FC corners (+2.5)	82.7%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Vasco da Gama corners (+3.5)	75.9%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Fluminense FC corners (+1.5)	74.8%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Vasco da Gama corners (+2.5)	67.0%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Vasco da Gama corners (+1.5)	56.7%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Fluminense FC corners (-1.5)	43.3%	43.2%	—	—	2.31
Fluminense FC corners (-2.5)	33.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Vasco da Gama corners (-1.5)	25.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Fluminense FC corners (-3.5)	24.1%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Vasco da Gama corners (-2.5)	17.3%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Vasco da Gama corners (-3.5)	11.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	49.5%	40.7%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	27.1%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	23.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	76.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	68.8%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	61.2%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 9.5 corners	59.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	50.5%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	49.5%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	40.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	38.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 10.5 corners	31.2%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	23.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.28
Over 12.5 corners	17.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-0	10.7%	11.5%	9.4%	1.22×	8.73
1-1	10.1%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.73
1-0	9.0%	7.4%	12.3%	0.61×	13.48
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
3-0	7.7%	7.4%	4.8%	1.55×	13.48
3-1	7.1%	7.4%	4.0%	1.86×	13.48
Any other score	7.0%	7.4%	2.5%	2.91×	13.48
0-0	5.5%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
0-1	3.3%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.47
0-2	2.0%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.48
0-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
1-2	4.2%	1.7%	6.2%	0.28×	58.47
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.48
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
2-2	4.6%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.46
2-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
3-2	3.3%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.47
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
4-0	4.1%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.47
4-1	3.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.47
4-2	1.8%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC leading at HT (DNB)	77.2%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Vasco da Gama leading at HT (DNB)	22.8%	22.0%	—	—	4.54

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw (1X)	85.9%	86.7%	76.0%	1.14×	1.15
Fluminense FC or Vasco da Gama (12)	78.7%	75.6%	72.8%	1.04×	1.32
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)	35.4%	41.8%	51.1%	0.82×	2.40

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw at HT	85.9%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Fluminense FC or Vasco da Gama at HT	62.2%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Vasco da Gama or draw at HT	52.0%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw (1UP)	85.9%	91.6%	—	—	1.09
Vasco da Gama or draw (1UP)	35.4%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw in 2nd half	83.6%	81.1%	—	—	1.23
Fluminense FC or Vasco da Gama in 2nd half	69.0%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Vasco da Gama or draw in 2nd half	47.4%	47.8%	—	—	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	56.0%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Neither half drawn	44.0%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (DNB)	82.1%	80.5%	67.0%	1.20×	1.24
Vasco da Gama (DNB)	17.9%	19.5%	33.0%	0.59×	5.13

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score first	66.1%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Vasco da Gama to score first	28.3%	28.3%	—	—	3.53
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.3%	51.4%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Not both teams to score	45.7%	48.6%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	44.2%	41.6%	38.2%	1.09×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	30.4%	34.3%	38.9%	0.88×	2.92
Not both score & over 2.5	15.3%	21.7%	9.6%	2.27×	4.61
Both score & under 2.5	10.1%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.0%	83.1%	87.3%	0.95×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.0%	16.9%	12.7%	1.33×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.5%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.3%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.8%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.6%	6.7%	—	—	14.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.1%	82.3%	—	—	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	18.9%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.0%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	39.0%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.1%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
4-6 goals	33.4%	30.8%	24.2%	1.27×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.8%	20.2%	25.6%	0.79×	4.96
7+ goals	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%	2.89×	54.41

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 0	39.7%	36.0%	34.6%	1.04×	2.78
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Vasco da Gama to score exactly 2	17.0%	19.6%	19.1%	1.02×	5.11
Vasco da Gama to score 3+	6.7%	8.5%	9.1%	0.93×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score 3+	36.6%	35.6%	18.5%	1.93×	2.81
Fluminense FC to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	27.2%	0.97×	3.77
Fluminense FC to score exactly 1	24.9%	23.3%	34.2%	0.68×	4.30
Fluminense FC to score exactly 0	11.5%	14.3%	20.4%	0.70×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC leading at HT	48.0%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	37.8%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Vasco da Gama leading at HT	14.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC -1: 1	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Fluminense FC -1: 2	35.4%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Fluminense FC -1: X	22.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (0:1)	41.9%	42.7%	23.2%	1.84×	2.34
Vasco da Gama (0:1)	35.4%	37.2%	51.1%	0.73×	2.69
Draw (0:1)	22.7%	24.3%	25.8%	0.94×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:2)	58.1%	62.8%	76.8%	0.82×	1.59
Fluminense FC (0:2)	22.1%	20.3%	9.2%	2.20×	4.92
Draw (0:2)	19.8%	15.3%	14.2%	1.08×	6.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:3)	77.9%	80.5%	90.8%	0.89×	1.24
Draw (0:3)	12.4%	10.0%	6.7%	1.50×	9.99
Fluminense FC (0:3)	9.7%	5.8%	2.7%	2.16×	17.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama (0:4)	90.3%	94.6%	97.3%	0.97×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	6.1%	4.6%	1.8%	2.64×	21.59
Fluminense FC (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	1.1%	1.08×	83.25

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (1:0)	85.9%	86.3%	76.0%	1.14×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	9.2%	6.9%	14.7%	0.47×	14.41
Vasco da Gama (1:0)	4.9%	3.2%	9.6%	0.33×	31.32

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (2:0)	95.1%	96.9%	90.4%	1.07×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.6%	2.3%	6.2%	0.36×	44.14
Vasco da Gama (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	3.5%	0.64×	44.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.1%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to concede	60.3%	63.4%	65.4%	0.97×	1.58
Fluminense FC clean sheet	39.7%	36.6%	34.6%	1.06×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC clean sheet in 1st half	69.1%	68.8%	—	—	1.46
Fluminense FC to concede in 1st half	30.9%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC over 2.5 corners	79.3%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Fluminense FC under 6.5 corners	73.6%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Fluminense FC over 3.5 corners	65.2%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Fluminense FC under 5.5 corners	62.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Fluminense FC over 4.5 corners	50.6%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Fluminense FC under 4.5 corners	49.4%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Fluminense FC over 5.5 corners	37.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Fluminense FC under 3.5 corners	34.8%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Fluminense FC over 6.5 corners	26.4%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Fluminense FC under 2.5 corners	20.7%	23.9%	—	—	4.19

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC over 0.5 goals	88.5%	87.3%	79.6%	1.10×	1.15
Fluminense FC under 3.5 goals	82.8%	82.1%	94.3%	0.87×	1.22
Fluminense FC over 1.5 goals	63.5%	63.5%	45.5%	1.39×	1.58
Fluminense FC under 2.5 goals	63.4%	63.5%	81.5%	0.78×	1.58
Fluminense FC over 2.5 goals	36.6%	36.5%	18.5%	1.98×	2.74
Fluminense FC under 1.5 goals	36.5%	36.5%	54.5%	0.67×	2.74
Fluminense FC over 3.5 goals	17.2%	17.9%	5.7%	3.12×	5.59
Fluminense FC under 0.5 goals	11.5%	12.7%	20.4%	0.62×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC under 1.5 in 1st half	76.2%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Fluminense FC over 0.5 in 1st half	60.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Fluminense FC under 0.5 in 1st half	39.5%	35.5%	—	—	2.82
Fluminense FC over 1.5 in 1st half	23.8%	23.0%	—	—	4.36

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	60.2%	60.1%	53.1%	1.13×	1.66
Vasco da Gama (home no bet)	39.8%	39.9%	46.9%	0.85×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC even goals	50.7%	50.6%	51.8%	0.98×	1.98
Fluminense FC odd goals	49.3%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	25.2%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 2-0	11.8%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 0-1	9.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 1-1	9.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	7.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.29
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 1-2	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	42.2%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Draw at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	19.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Vasco da Gama at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	7.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.68
Draw at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	5.7%	6.0%	—	—	16.72
Fluminense FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.79
Vasco da Gama at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
Vasco da Gama at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Fluminense FC at HT / Vasco da Gama at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score last	66.3%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Vasco da Gama to score last	28.2%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
No goal scored	5.5%	7.5%	—	—	13.42

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Fluminense FC to lead by 1 at any time	76.4%	78.1%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	57.2%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Fluminense FC to lead by 2 at any time	48.6%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Vasco da Gama to lead by 1 at any time	32.5%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	27.2%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Fluminense FC to lead by 3 at any time	25.3%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Vasco da Gama to lead by 2 at any time	8.9%	6.7%	—	—	14.99
Vasco da Gama to lead by 3 at any time	2.0%	1.6%	—	—	62.34

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC most corners	54.3%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Vasco da Gama most corners	34.9%	33.8%	—	—	2.96
Corners level	10.8%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.5%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	74.6%	72.4%	81.8%	0.88×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.0%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.4%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.4%	59.2%	68.8%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.8%	59.2%	47.1%	1.26×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.3%	53.2%	43.2%	1.23×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.1%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.6%	39.2%	36.1%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.0%	35.4%	45.9%	0.77×	2.83
4-6 goals	33.4%	35.4%	24.2%	1.46×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.9%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.1%	18.6%	11.1%	1.67×	5.37
7+ goals	3.8%	2.6%	0.6%	4.01×	39.16

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC never behind	62.0%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Vasco da Gama never behind	18.0%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.0%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.0%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.0%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	46.0%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.5%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.8%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	82.2%	82.4%	74.4%	1.11×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	80.1%	82.4%	88.4%	0.93×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	62.9%	61.8%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.5%	58.9%	47.6%	1.24×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.5%	41.2%	52.4%	0.79×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	37.1%	38.2%	24.7%	1.55×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	19.9%	17.6%	11.6%	1.52×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	17.8%	17.6%	25.6%	0.69×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	9.2%	7.7%	4.6%	1.68×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	5.5%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.0%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.7%	86.8%	95.0%	0.91×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.0%	75.9%	65.0%	1.17×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.0%	75.9%	86.6%	0.88×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.2%	51.8%	68.0%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.8%	48.2%	32.0%	1.50×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.0%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.0%	24.1%	35.0%	0.69×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.3%	13.2%	5.0%	2.67×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.0%	2.8%	0.7%	4.18×	36.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	85.8%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.5%	71.2%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.6%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.4%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.2%	11.1%	—	—	9.02

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.5%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.6%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.5%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to score in both halves	86.8%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Fluminense FC not to score in both halves	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Fluminense FC to score in both halves	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.36
Vasco da Gama to score in both halves	13.2%	14.3%	—	—	7.01

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.3%	54.0%	51.8%	1.04×	1.85
Only Fluminense FC scores	34.1%	33.4%	28.0%	1.19×	3.00
Only Vasco da Gama scores	6.0%	7.2%	13.9%	0.52×	13.92
Neither team scores	5.5%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	22.7%	22.6%	26.9%	0.84×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.4%	13.2%	1.32×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.3%	12.1%	19.1%	0.63×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.6%	12.1%	7.2%	1.69×	8.28
6 or more goals	9.2%	7.6%	4.6%	1.66×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.5%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.6%	51.4%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.3%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	17.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win both halves	97.6%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Fluminense FC not to win both halves	74.5%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Fluminense FC to win both halves	25.5%	26.9%	—	—	3.71
Vasco da Gama to win both halves	2.4%	2.8%	—	—	36.25

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win either half	75.1%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Vasco da Gama to win neither half	71.8%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Vasco da Gama to win either half	28.2%	27.1%	—	—	3.69
Fluminense FC to win neither half	24.9%	20.5%	—	—	4.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Vasco da Gama not to win to nil	94.0%	92.1%	86.1%	1.07×	1.09
Fluminense FC not to win to nil	65.9%	69.6%	72.0%	0.97×	1.44
Fluminense FC to win to nil	34.1%	30.4%	28.0%	1.08×	3.29
Vasco da Gama to win to nil	6.0%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.60

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC by 1	22.7%	24.1%	25.8%	0.94×	4.14
Fluminense FC by 3+	22.1%	24.1%	9.2%	2.61×	4.14
Draw	21.3%	24.1%	27.2%	0.89×	4.14
Fluminense FC by 2	19.8%	16.9%	14.2%	1.19×	5.91
Vasco da Gama by 1	9.2%	7.3%	14.7%	0.50×	13.77
Vasco da Gama by 2	3.6%	2.7%	6.2%	0.44×	36.97
Vasco da Gama by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.04