Freiburg v Eintracht Frankfurt — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 May 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 11
On target
1 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.99
Goals − xG
-0.14 – +0.24
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
33.5%
Draw
26.2%
Eintracht Frankfurt win
40.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.37–1.53 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.68–1.56 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.14 xGEintracht Frankfurt 2.76 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Philipp Lienhart |
| 2' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Max Rosenfelder |
| 26' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matthias Ginter |
| 31' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 32' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 36' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ellyes Skhiri |
| 39' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arthur Theate | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
| 45' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ritsu Doan |
| 48' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Farès Chaïbi |
| 59' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 60' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Ekitike |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.89 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Rasmus Kristensen |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Freiburg |
Junior Adamu | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Højlund |
| 87' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 89' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 96' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.02 | 0.88 |
| Ansgar Knauff AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.55 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.18 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.69 | 0.74 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ellyes Skhiri MC | 88 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.89 | 0.05 | 0.44 |
| Farès Chaïbi AMC | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.53 | 1.31 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michy Batshuayi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritsu Doan MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.40 | 0.98 |
| Maximilian Eggestein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.62 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.54 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Höler AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Vincenzo Grifo ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Johan Manzambi MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Junior Adamu FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Max Rosenfelder DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Lukas Kübler Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Michael Gregoritsch Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Günter Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |