Freiburg v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 19 April 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 19
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.43
Goals − xG
+1.45 – +0.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
50.9%
Draw
25.1%
Hoffenheim win
24.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.74–1.13 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.55 xGHoffenheim 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Hoffenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 3' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentin Gendrey |
| 7' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Haris Tabakovic |
| 13' |
 Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Osterhage |
| 13' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Lucas Höler |
| 23' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 23' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanley N'Soki |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Johan Manzambi |
| 35' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 40' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 40' |
Freiburg |
Patrick Osterhage | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 44' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 46' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 55' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.52 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 59' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Kevin Akpoguma | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dennis Geiger |
| 66' |
Hoffenheim |
Dennis Geiger | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 66' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.13 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gift Orban |
| 76' |
Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 77' |
Hoffenheim |
Adam Hlozek | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 80' |
Hoffenheim |
Pavel Kaderábek | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 86' |
Hoffenheim |
Anton Stach | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marius Bülter |
| 88' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pavel Kaderábek |
| 89' |
Hoffenheim |
Dennis Geiger | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Höler FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.39 | 1.05 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Ritsu Doan MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Maximilian Eggestein MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Patrick Osterhage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.71 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Florian Müller GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Lukas Kübler DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Johan Manzambi AMC | 73 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.14 | 0.73 |
| Vincenzo Grifo ML | 73 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.71 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Merlin Röhl Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.00 |
| Max Rosenfelder Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiliann Sildillia Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.25 | 0.05 | 1.25 |
| Marius Bülter DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.50 | 0.73 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Bischof MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| Bazoumana Touré AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Valentin Gendrey DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Stanley N'Soki DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Dennis Geiger Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Pavel Kaderábek Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Gift Orban Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| Adam Hlozek Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Finn Becker Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |