Freiburg v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 September 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.31 – +0.45
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
26.0%
Draw
24.4%
VfB Stuttgart win
49.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.62–1.77 | 1-1 10% | 66% | 67% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 1.69 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 19' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jamie Leweling |
| 21' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Joshua Vagnoman | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Badredine Bouanani |
| 27' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 27' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 33' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jordy Makengo |
| 46' |
Freiburg |
Patrick Osterhage | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 50' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 51' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 59' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lukas Kübler |
| 60' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Bilal El Khannouss | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Badredine Bouanani |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bilal El Khannouss |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jamie Leweling |
| 69' |
Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Lukas Kübler | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lukas Kübler |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Johan Manzambi |
| 85' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 91' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 96' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Finn Jeltsch | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tiago Tomás |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lukas Kübler DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Johan Manzambi AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Igor Matanovic Sub | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nicolas Höfler Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Vagnoman DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Bilal El Khannouss AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.38 |
| Finn Jeltsch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jamie Leweling AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 78 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Badredine Bouanani AMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| Tiago Tomás Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chema Andres Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenz Assignon Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Chris Führich Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |