Freiburg v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 21 February 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 9
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 6
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.77
Goals − xG
+2.24 – -1.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
43.6%
Draw
28.9%
Werder Bremen win
27.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 2.76 xGWerder Bremen 1.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Freiburg |
Matthias Ginter | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maximilian Eggestein |
| 3' |
 Werder Bremen |
Derrick Köhn | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 7' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 14' |
Freiburg |
Kiliann Sildillia | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 17' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.29 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 21' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 26' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 32' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 38' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 39' |
Werder Bremen |
Mitchell Weiser | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 41' |
Werder Bremen |
André Silva | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Leonardo Bittencourt |
| 41' |
Werder Bremen |
Niklas Stark | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lucas Höler |
| 58' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 67' |
Freiburg |
Christian Günter | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 67' |
Freiburg |
Lucas Höler | 0.87 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 75' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Eren Sami Dinkci |
| 83' |
Werder Bremen |
Marco Grüll | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mitchell Weiser |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 91' |
Freiburg |
Ritsu Doan | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jan-Niklas Beste |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Weiser DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Niklas Stark DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.39 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Anthony Jung DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Amos Pieper DC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| André Silva FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.19 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Derrick Köhn DML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Leonardo Bittencourt MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Felix Agu Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jens Stage Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marvin Ducksch Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Julián Malatini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritsu Doan AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Kiliann Sildillia DR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Philipp Lienhart DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Christian Günter DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.40 | 0.56 |
| Lucas Höler FW | 80 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.87 | 0.46 | 0.87 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 74 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.52 | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| Merlin Röhl AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| Eren Sami Dinkci Sub | 16 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.60 |
| Junior Adamu Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Manzambi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |