Freiburg v Werder Bremen — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 17
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.14
Goals − xG
+0.64 – -1.12
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Freiburg win
49.4%
Draw
26.3%
Werder Bremen win
24.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Werder Bremen are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLWDLLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 9.3 xG
conceded 18
from 21.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.05–0.96 | 2-0 10% | 58% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Freiburg 0.36 xGWerder Bremen 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Freiburg attacking right
Werder Bremen attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 8' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Olivier Deman |
| 12' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Igor Matanovic |
| 12' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Christian Günter |
| 17' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Justin Njinmah |
| 29' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 44' |
Freiburg |
Patrick Osterhage | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 54' |
Werder Bremen |
Karim Coulibaly | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 57' |
Freiburg |
Maximilian Eggestein | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Senne Lynen |
| 62' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Atubolu |
| 66' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Stage |
| 70' |
Werder Bremen |
Yukinari Sugawara | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Werder Bremen |
Romano Schmid | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marco Friedl |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 74' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 78' |
Werder Bremen |
Senne Lynen | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Romano Schmid |
| 79' |
Werder Bremen |
Justin Njinmah | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Werder Bremen |
Samuel Mbangula | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Derry Scherhant | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 94' |
Werder Bremen |
Keke Maximilian Topp | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cameron Puertas |
Players
Werder Bremen
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keke Maximilian Topp FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Karim Coulibaly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Yukinari Sugawara DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jens Stage MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Marco Friedl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.51 |
| Mio Backhaus GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Senne Lynen MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.72 |
| Justin Njinmah FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.04 | 0.71 |
| Romano Schmid MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Olivier Deman DML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| Julián Malatini DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samuel Mbangula Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Felix Agu Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marco Grüll Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Puertas Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Jovan Milosevic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Max Rosenfelder DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bruno Ogbus DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 85 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Patrick Osterhage DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 69 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Christian Günter DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 57 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| Johan Manzambi AMC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yuito Suzuki Sub | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Jordy Makengo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Jung Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |