Fulham v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 8 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425

Premier League xG Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:04

Fulham

1–1

0.15 – 2.43 xG

Arsenal

Shots

2 – 12

On target

2 – 4

Shots in box

2 – 10

xG per shot

0.08 – 0.23

Set-piece xG

0.00 – 2.38

Goals − xG

+0.85 – -1.73

AI prediction

dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.

Fulham win

26.4%

Draw

24.5%

Arsenal win

49.0%

262549

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDWLLDWLLL last 10 scored 8 from 13.9 xG conceded 14 from 18.6 xG

Arsenal are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LLWWWWWWWW last 10 scored 16 from 22.9 xG conceded 6 from 9.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS	Outcome
dc-xg-oos	262549	1.14–1.64	1-1 12%	52%	55%	Away ✗

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Reading the xG timeline

Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

Fulham 0.15 xGArsenal 2.73 xG

Reading the shot map

Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Fulham attacking right Arsenal attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

Min	Team	Player	xG	Situation	Body part	Result	Assisted by
2'	Arsenal	William Saliba	0.58	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Declan Rice
10'	Fulham	Raúl Jiménez	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Goal	Kenny Tete
12'	Arsenal	Declan Rice	0.02	Set Piece	Right Foot	Missed Shot	—
23'	Arsenal	Declan Rice	0.04	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Leandro Trossard
24'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Missed Shot	Leandro Trossard
36'	Arsenal	Bukayo Saka	0.05	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Martin Odegaard
51'	Arsenal	Kai Havertz	0.31	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Bukayo Saka
51'	Arsenal	William Saliba	0.94	From Corner	Left Foot	Goal	Kai Havertz
56'	Arsenal	Leandro Trossard	0.06	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	Jurriën Timber
58'	Arsenal	Kai Havertz	0.07	Set Piece	—	Missed Shot	Martin Odegaard
61'	Arsenal	Kai Havertz	0.10	Open Play	Left Foot	Missed Shot	Martin Odegaard
69'	Arsenal	Thomas Partey	0.46	From Corner	—	Missed Shot	Declan Rice
70'	Fulham	Andreas Pereira	0.11	Open Play	Left Foot	Saved Shot	Sander Berge
77'	Arsenal	Declan Rice	0.04	Open Play	Right Foot	Saved Shot	—

Players

Arsenal

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
William Saliba DC	90	1	0	2	0	1.52	0.00	0.06
Thomas Partey DR	90	0	0	1	0	0.46	0.00	0.16
Bukayo Saka FWR	90	0	0	2	1	0.11	0.31	0.27
Declan Rice MC	90	0	0	3	2	0.10	1.04	0.19
David Raya GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jakub Kiwior DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.06
Jurriën Timber DL	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.06	0.16
Martin Odegaard MC	80	0	0	0	3	0.00	0.23	0.21
Kai Havertz FW	75	0	1	3	1	0.49	0.94	0.16
Jorginho MC	75	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.10
Leandro Trossard FWL	61	0	0	1	2	0.06	0.10	0.21
Gabriel Martinelli Sub	29	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Mikel Merino Sub	15	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gabriel Jesus Sub	15	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ethan Nwaneri Sub	10	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Fulham

Player	Min	G	A	Sh	KP	xG	xA	xGChain
Sander Berge DMC	90	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.11	0.15
Kenny Tete DR	90	0	1	0	1	0.00	0.04	0.04
Issa Diop DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Calvin Bassey DC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Bernd Leno GK	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Antonee Robinson DL	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Sasa Lukic DMC	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.15
Alex Iwobi AMR	90	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Raúl Jiménez FW	81	1	0	1	0	0.04	0.00	0.04
Emile Smith-Rowe AMC	61	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.04
Adama Traoré AML	61	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Andreas Pereira Sub	29	0	0	1	0	0.11	0.00	0.11
Harry Wilson Sub	29	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Rodrigo Muniz Sub	9	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00
Jorge Cuenca Sub	1	0	0	0	0	0.00	0.00	0.00

Fulham v Arsenal — Prediction, Odds & Stats

AI prediction

What the chances say

What the model said

Expected goals by minute

Shot map

Every shot

Players

Arsenal

Fulham

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