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Fulham v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 2 March 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Shots
12 – 15
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 10
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+1.62 – -1.15
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.50'15'30'45'60'75'90'Harry Wilson 20' — goalRodrigo Muniz 31' — goalAdama Traoré 90' — goal
Fulham 1.38 xGBrighton and Hove Albion 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Julio Enciso 1' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Harrison Reed 9' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Set Piece)Andreas Pereira 11' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Harry Wilson 20' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Adam Lallana 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Julio Enciso 27' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo Muniz 31' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Julio Enciso 33' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lewis Dunk 46' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Harry Wilson 48' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Harry Wilson 50' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Tosin Adarabioyo 51' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Andreas Pereira 52' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Carlos Baleba 57' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Evan Ferguson 58' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Andreas Pereira 60' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Rodrigo Muniz 60' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Evan Ferguson 61' — Saved Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Adam Webster 65' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Evan Ferguson 66' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Harry Wilson 66' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Carlos Baleba 74' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 77' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Facundo Buonanotte 78' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Anssumane Fati 79' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Estupiñán 86' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Adama Traoré 90' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)
Fulham attacking right Brighton and Hove Albion attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Brighton and Hove Albion Julio Enciso 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Estupiñán
9' Fulham Harrison Reed 0.03 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot
11' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alex Iwobi
20' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Rodrigo Muniz
25' Brighton and Hove Albion Adam Lallana 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Jan Paul van Hecke
27' Brighton and Hove Albion Julio Enciso 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jan Paul van Hecke
31' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.33 Open Play Goal Harry Wilson
33' Brighton and Hove Albion Julio Enciso 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Lallana
46' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Estupiñán
48' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sasa Lukic
50' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Rodrigo Muniz
51' Fulham Tosin Adarabioyo 0.04 From Corner Missed Shot Andreas Pereira
52' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alex Iwobi
57' Brighton and Hove Albion Carlos Baleba 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Joël Veltman
58' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Lallana
60' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Harry Wilson
60' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Timothy Castagne
61' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
65' Brighton and Hove Albion Adam Webster 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Estupiñán
66' Brighton and Hove Albion Evan Ferguson 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Simon Adingra
66' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Alex Iwobi
74' Brighton and Hove Albion Carlos Baleba 0.07 Open Play Missed Shot Estupiñán
77' Brighton and Hove Albion Anssumane Fati 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Webster
78' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Anssumane Fati
79' Brighton and Hove Albion Anssumane Fati 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Estupiñán
86' Brighton and Hove Albion Estupiñán 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
90' Fulham Adama Traoré 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal Bobby Reid

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Evan Ferguson FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.66 0.00 0.68
Adam Webster DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.04 0.45
Estupiñán DML 90 0 0 1 5 0.03 0.21 0.57
Joël Veltman DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.16
Jason Steele GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jan Paul van Hecke MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.47
Carlos Baleba MC 82 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.41
Adam Lallana AMC 63 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.39 0.46
Lewis Dunk DC 63 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.39
Julio Enciso AMC 50 0 0 3 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
Tariq Lamptey DMR 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Anssumane Fati Sub 40 0 0 2 1 0.08 0.08 0.15
Simon Adingra Sub 40 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.15
Facundo Buonanotte Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.08
Pascal Groß Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Jakub Moder Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fulham

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tosin Adarabioyo DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.56
Harrison Reed DMC 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.42
Calvin Bassey DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Timothy Castagne DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.65
Bernd Leno GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sasa Lukic DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.58
Antonee Robinson DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.44
Rodrigo Muniz FW 88 1 1 2 2 0.42 0.21 0.67
Harry Wilson AMR 88 1 1 4 2 0.42 0.37 0.79
Andreas Pereira AMC 73 0 0 3 1 0.17 0.04 0.85
Alex Iwobi AML 73 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.25 0.25
Tom Cairney Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Willian Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adama Traoré Sub 2 1 0 1 0 0.31 0.00 0.31
Armando Broja Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Bobby Reid Sub 1 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.31
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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