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Fulham v Burnley — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 23 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

0–2
1.38 – 0.42 xG
Shots
19 – 7
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 4
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-1.39 – +1.58
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Wilson Odobert 46' — goalSander Berge 65' — goal
Fulham 1.39 xGBurnley 0.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Harry Wilson 12' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alex Iwobi 13' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)João Palhinha 13' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andreas Pereira 22' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Direct Freekick)Rodrigo Muniz 34' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alex Iwobi 42' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Antonee Robinson 43' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Harry Wilson 43' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Lyle Foster 44' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 45' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 46' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alex Iwobi 47' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Set Piece)Alex Iwobi 47' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Timothy Castagne 47' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Rodrigo Muniz 48' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Dara O'Shea 52' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Tosin Adarabioyo 54' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Sander Berge 58' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Sander Berge 65' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Bobby Reid 67' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Carlos Vinicius 71' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Antonee Robinson 77' — Blocked Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Sander Berge 82' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Carlos Vinicius 85' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Timothy Castagne 85' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Alex Iwobi 87' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Fulham attacking right Burnley attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
12' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
13' Fulham Alex Iwobi 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Tom Cairney
13' Fulham João Palhinha 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Rodrigo Muniz
22' Fulham Andreas Pereira 0.04 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
34' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot João Palhinha
42' Fulham Alex Iwobi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Harry Wilson
43' Fulham Antonee Robinson 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Alex Iwobi
43' Fulham Harry Wilson 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Timothy Castagne
44' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Wilson Odobert
45' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Lyle Foster
46' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal Lyle Foster
47' Fulham Alex Iwobi 0.11 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
47' Fulham Alex Iwobi 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Calvin Bassey
47' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot Tosin Adarabioyo
48' Fulham Rodrigo Muniz 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Timothy Castagne
52' Burnley Dara O'Shea 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Mike Trésor
54' Fulham Tosin Adarabioyo 0.01 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
58' Burnley Sander Berge 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Charlie Taylor
65' Burnley Sander Berge 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Wilson Odobert
67' Fulham Bobby Reid 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alex Iwobi
71' Fulham Carlos Vinicius 0.10 Open Play Saved Shot Bobby Reid
77' Fulham Antonee Robinson 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alex Iwobi
82' Burnley Sander Berge 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mike Trésor
85' Fulham Carlos Vinicius 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
85' Fulham Timothy Castagne 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Carlos Vinicius
87' Fulham Alex Iwobi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Bobby Reid

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Sander Berge MC 90 1 0 3 0 0.15 0.00 0.18
Dara O'Shea DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.04
Charlie Taylor DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.06
Vitinho DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Louis Beyer DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Zeki Amdouni FW 84 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.10
Wilson Odobert ML 84 1 1 1 2 0.03 0.13 0.23
Lyle Foster FW 69 0 1 1 2 0.09 0.10 0.19
Jacob Bruun Larsen MR 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mike Trésor Sub 40 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.16 0.07
Jay Rodriguez Sub 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Nathan Redmond Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Connor Roberts Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Hannes Delcroix Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Fulham

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Alex Iwobi AML 90 0 0 5 3 0.34 0.41 0.57
Timothy Castagne DR 90 0 0 2 2 0.15 0.13 0.57
Harry Wilson AMR 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.04 0.58
Tosin Adarabioyo DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.07 0.28
Bernd Leno GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Calvin Bassey DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.30
Tom Cairney DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.21
Antonee Robinson DL 86 0 0 2 0 0.38 0.00 0.59
João Palhinha DMC 86 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.05 0.66
Andreas Pereira AMC 69 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.20
Rodrigo Muniz FW 68 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.06 0.17
Carlos Vinicius Sub 22 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.08 0.56
Bobby Reid Sub 21 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.14 0.48
Harrison Reed Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fode Toure Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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