Fulham v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.01 – 0.69
Goals − xG
-0.21 – +1.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
40.9%
Draw
28.1%
Everton win
30.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Everton are conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLLDDLLWD last 10
scored 16
from 14.1 xG
conceded 16
from 18.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.29–1.00 | 1-0 13% | 40% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.21 xGEverton 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Everton |
Jarrad Branthwaite | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
 Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 4' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Sander Berge |
| 9' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 13' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Harry Wilson |
| 16' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.57 | Open Play | — | Goal | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 21' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 22' |
Everton |
Jack Harrison | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 34' |
Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 37' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 37' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 41' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 43' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 46' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Beto |
| 47' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Abdoulaye Doucouré |
| 49' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ashley Young |
| 50' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.30 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Ashley Young |
| 50' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 52' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenny Tete |
| 60' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alex Iwobi |
| 69' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | Dwight McNeil |
| 73' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Carlos Alcaraz |
| 76' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adama Traoré |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Joshua King | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martial Godo |
| 93' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Willian |
| 95' |
Everton |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ashley Young |
| 100' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Willian |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jarrad Branthwaite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ashley Young DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.37 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Alcaraz AML | 87 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.27 |
| Jack Harrison AMR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.22 |
| Abdoulaye Doucouré AMC | 64 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Iliman Ndiaye Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Dwight McNeil Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Seamus Coleman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.60 | 0.14 | 0.81 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.89 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.70 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Ryan Sessegnon DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.66 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.07 | 0.92 |
| Andreas Pereira DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Willian Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Joshua King Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |