Fulham v Liverpool — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 14
On target
6 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.13
Goals − xG
+1.25 – +0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Fulham win
22.0%
Draw
24.4%
Liverpool win
53.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Liverpool are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWLDLDDDW last 10
scored 19
from 16.2 xG
conceded 15
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.86 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.08–1.82 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 55% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Fulham 1.75 xGLiverpool 1.41 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Fulham attacking right
Liverpool attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andreas Pereira |
| 4' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Liverpool |
Alexis Mac Allister | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ryan Gravenberch |
| 22' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 31' |
Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 35' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 36' |
Fulham |
Rodrigo Muniz | 0.39 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Alex Iwobi |
| 43' |
Fulham |
Alex Iwobi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 47' |
Liverpool |
Diogo Jota | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Dominik Szoboszlai | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Liverpool |
Ibrahima Konaté | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 55' |
Fulham |
Ryan Sessegnon | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sander Berge |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Andreas Pereira | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Sessegnon |
| 57' |
Liverpool |
Andrew Robertson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alexis Mac Allister |
| 63' |
Liverpool |
Mohamed Salah | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Díaz |
| 71' |
Liverpool |
Luis Díaz | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Conor Bradley |
| 72' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Curtis Jones |
| 74' |
Liverpool |
Curtis Jones | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 78' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Conor Bradley |
| 87' |
Fulham |
Harrison Reed | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 90' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Liverpool |
Harvey Elliott | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mohamed Salah |
| 94' |
Liverpool |
Federico Chiesa | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Díaz |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bassey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Timothy Castagne DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.24 |
| Ryan Sessegnon AMR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.11 | 0.62 |
| Alex Iwobi AML | 85 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.39 | 0.24 |
| Rodrigo Muniz FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.93 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Andreas Pereira AMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.54 | 1.01 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harrison Reed Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Raúl Jiménez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kenny Tete Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Liverpool
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohamed Salah AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| Curtis Jones DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Alexis Mac Allister DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Caoimhin Kelleher GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ryan Gravenberch DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Virgil van Dijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrew Robertson DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Diogo Jota FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Ibrahima Konaté DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Dominik Szoboszlai AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Cody Gakpo AML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luis Díaz Sub | 32 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.30 | 0.34 | 0.84 |
| Harvey Elliott Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Conor Bradley Sub | 20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Darwin Núñez Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Federico Chiesa Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.06 |