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GAIS v IFK Göteborg — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
GAIS win
51.4%
model 51.9%
Draw
26.5%
model 25.7%
IFK Göteborg win
22.1%
model 22.4%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.3%
  2. 1-0 10.8%
  3. 2-1 9.6%
  4. 2-0 9.5%
  5. 0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.549.9% Under 2.550.1%
BTTS yes52.2% BTTS no47.8%
GAIS 1+81.0% GAIS 2+49.4%
IFK Göteborg 1+63.6% IFK Göteborg 2+26.8%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1496.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

GAIS have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.1% for IFK Göteborg. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.66 for GAIS and 1.01 for IFK Göteborg.

Why GAIS

GAIS carry the stronger rating, 1568 Elo against 1496.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why IFK Göteborg can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for GAIS, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for IFK Göteborg, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

GAIS: 53% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 13.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. IFK Göteborg: 53% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

GAIS are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.3%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.57–0.89 1-0 13% 45% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to win 52.6% 51.5% 40.7% 1.26× 1.94
Draw 26.7% 27.9% 22.9% 1.22× 3.59
IFK Göteborg to win 20.7% 24.4% 36.6% 0.67× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & not both score 31.9% 29.7% 23.7% 1.26× 3.37
GAIS & both teams score 20.7% 21.9% 17.3% 1.26× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 17.5% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.58
IFK Göteborg & not both score 11.6% 13.3% 18.8% 0.70× 7.54
Draw & not both score 9.2% 8.4% 5.3% 1.57× 11.92
IFK Göteborg & both teams score 9.1% 8.4% 18.1% 0.46× 11.92
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS & over 1.5 39.8% 34.9% 34.6% 1.01× 2.86
GAIS & under 3.5 38.2% 34.9% 26.2% 1.33× 2.86
GAIS & over 2.5 29.3% 26.0% 25.4% 1.02× 3.84
GAIS & under 2.5 23.3% 21.6% 15.5% 1.39× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 21.8% 21.6% 18.1% 1.20× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.8% 21.6% 18.1% 1.20× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 17.5% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
IFK Göteborg & under 3.5 16.7% 18.0% 25.4% 0.71× 5.56
GAIS & over 3.5 14.4% 12.9% 14.8% 0.87× 7.77
IFK Göteborg & over 1.5 13.7% 12.9% 27.7% 0.46× 7.77
GAIS & under 1.5 12.8% 12.9% 6.4% 2.02× 7.77
IFK Göteborg & over 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 22.9% 0.56× 7.77
IFK Göteborg & under 2.5 10.3% 12.9% 14.0% 0.92× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 9.2% 7.9% 5.3% 1.47× 12.70
IFK Göteborg & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.9% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.92
Draw & over 3.5 4.9% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.92
IFK Göteborg & over 3.5 4.0% 4.8% 11.5% 0.42× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1UP) 65.3% 69.8% 1.43
IFK Göteborg (1UP) 36.9% 34.0% 2.94
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (2UP) 52.6% 55.9% 1.79
IFK Göteborg (2UP) 20.7% 23.3% 4.29
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to win 2nd half 42.0% 41.2% 2.43
2nd half drawn 37.3% 36.3% 2.76
IFK Göteborg to win 2nd half 20.6% 22.9% 4.37
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (+2.5) 88.3% 88.5% 88.6% 1.00× 1.13
GAIS (+0.5) 79.3% 78.5% 63.4% 1.24× 1.27
IFK Göteborg (+1.5) 72.0% 73.7% 76.3% 0.97× 1.36
GAIS (-0.5) 52.6% 52.4% 40.7% 1.29× 1.91
IFK Göteborg (+0.5) 47.4% 47.6% 59.3% 0.80× 2.10
GAIS (-1.5) 28.0% 26.3% 23.7% 1.11× 3.80
IFK Göteborg (-0.5) 20.7% 21.5% 36.6% 0.59× 4.65
GAIS (-2.5) 11.7% 11.5% 11.5% 1.00× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to concede 79.2% 79.0% 76.1% 1.04× 1.27
IFK Göteborg clean sheet 20.8% 21.0% 23.9% 0.88× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to concede in 1st half 49.0% 50.6% 1.98
IFK Göteborg clean sheet in 1st half 51.0% 49.4% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg over 2.5 corners 85.7% 85.2% 1.17
IFK Göteborg over 3.5 corners 72.9% 71.6% 1.40
IFK Göteborg under 6.5 corners 69.6% 67.5% 1.48
IFK Göteborg over 4.5 corners 58.0% 57.1% 1.75
IFK Göteborg under 5.5 corners 56.7% 57.1% 1.75
IFK Göteborg over 5.5 corners 43.3% 42.9% 2.33
IFK Göteborg under 4.5 corners 42.0% 42.9% 2.33
IFK Göteborg over 6.5 corners 30.4% 32.5% 3.08
IFK Göteborg under 3.5 corners 27.1% 28.4% 3.52
IFK Göteborg under 2.5 corners 14.3% 14.8% 6.74
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg under 3.5 goals 98.7% 97.6% 95.2% 1.03× 1.03
IFK Göteborg under 2.5 goals 93.9% 92.4% 81.7% 1.13× 1.08
IFK Göteborg under 1.5 goals 77.7% 76.2% 60.8% 1.25× 1.31
IFK Göteborg over 0.5 goals 58.9% 59.6% 71.2% 0.84× 1.68
IFK Göteborg under 0.5 goals 41.1% 40.4% 28.8% 1.41× 2.47
IFK Göteborg over 1.5 goals 22.3% 23.8% 39.2% 0.61× 4.21
IFK Göteborg over 2.5 goals 6.1% 7.6% 18.3% 0.42× 13.08
IFK Göteborg over 3.5 goals 1.3% 2.4% 4.8% 0.51× 40.91
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg under 1.5 in 1st half 95.0% 94.2% 1.06
IFK Göteborg under 0.5 in 1st half 70.1% 68.2% 1.47
IFK Göteborg over 0.5 in 1st half 29.9% 31.8% 3.15
IFK Göteborg over 1.5 in 1st half 5.0% 5.8% 17.31
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (away no bet) 66.3% 66.4% 64.0% 1.04× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.7% 33.6% 36.0% 0.93× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg even goals 58.4% 56.9% 53.2% 1.07× 1.76
IFK Göteborg odd goals 41.6% 43.1% 46.8% 0.92× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.5% 88.0% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.5% 12.0% 8.31
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 58.1% 59.9% 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 41.9% 40.1% 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 51.7% 51.4% 1.95
GAIS to score 2+ in a row 39.9% 36.6% 2.73
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.4% 16.4% 6.08
IFK Göteborg to score 2+ in a row 16.0% 16.4% 6.11
GAIS to score 3+ in a row 15.2% 16.4% 6.11
IFK Göteborg to score 3+ in a row 3.3% 2.6% 38.39
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS corners (+3.5) 85.7% 84.5% 1.18
GAIS corners (+2.5) 79.3% 74.9% 1.34
IFK Göteborg corners (+3.5) 76.2% 74.9% 1.34
GAIS corners (+1.5) 71.3% 70.7% 1.41
IFK Göteborg corners (+2.5) 67.8% 65.8% 1.52
IFK Göteborg corners (+1.5) 58.3% 57.1% 1.75
GAIS corners (-1.5) 41.7% 42.9% 2.33
GAIS corners (-2.5) 32.2% 34.2% 2.92
IFK Göteborg corners (-1.5) 28.7% 29.3% 3.41
GAIS corners (-3.5) 23.8% 25.1% 3.98
IFK Göteborg corners (-2.5) 20.7% 25.1% 3.98
IFK Göteborg corners (-3.5) 14.3% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 46.0% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 24.8% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 83.3% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 75.2% 76.5% 1.31
Over 9.5 corners 65.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 63.3% 63.4% 1.58
Over 10.5 corners 55.9% 57.7% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 54.0% 53.3% 1.88
Over 11.5 corners 46.0% 46.7% 2.14
Under 10.5 corners 44.1% 42.3% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 36.7% 36.6% 2.73
Under 9.5 corners 34.2% 32.3% 3.09
Under 8.5 corners 24.8% 23.5% 4.25
Under 7.5 corners 16.7% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 12.8% 11.4% 6.4% 1.80× 8.73
1-1 12.6% 11.4% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
2-0 10.5% 11.4% 9.4% 1.22× 8.74
0-0 9.2% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.47
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.47
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 9.2% 0.81× 13.47
1-2 5.3% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.47
3-0 5.5% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.47
3-1 4.9% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.50
0-2 3.4% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.50
0-3 1.0% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
1-3 1.6% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.52
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
2-2 4.2% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.50
2-3 1.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.52
2-4 0.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
3-2 2.2% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.51
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.52
4-0 2.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.51
4-1 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.51
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
Any other score 2.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS leading at HT (DNB) 69.2% 74.5% 1.34
IFK Göteborg leading at HT (DNB) 30.8% 25.5% 3.92
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (1X) 79.3% 75.6% 63.4% 1.19× 1.32
GAIS or IFK Göteborg (12) 73.3% 72.1% 77.1% 0.94× 1.39
IFK Göteborg or draw (X2) 47.4% 48.5% 59.3% 0.82× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw at HT 83.1% 84.4% 1.19
IFK Göteborg or draw at HT 61.9% 62.2% 1.61
GAIS or IFK Göteborg at HT 55.0% 47.8% 2.09
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw (1UP) 79.3% 84.2% 1.19
IFK Göteborg or draw (1UP) 47.4% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS or draw in 2nd half 79.4% 77.1% 1.30
GAIS or IFK Göteborg in 2nd half 62.7% 63.7% 1.57
IFK Göteborg or draw in 2nd half 58.0% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.8% 61.8% 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.2% 38.2% 2.62
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (DNB) 71.8% 71.4% 52.6% 1.36× 1.40
IFK Göteborg (DNB) 28.2% 28.6% 47.4% 0.60× 3.50
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score first 57.9% 62.0% 1.61
IFK Göteborg to score first 32.8% 27.0% 3.71
No goal scored 9.2% 7.6% 13.23
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.7% 51.5% 47.3% 1.09× 1.94
Both teams to score 47.3% 48.6% 52.7% 0.92× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 42.9% 41.6% 34.4% 1.21× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 34.7% 34.3% 39.9% 0.86× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 12.6% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 9.8% 8.4% 13.2% 0.63× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.6% 85.7% 84.2% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.4% 14.3% 15.8% 0.91× 6.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.3% 75.4% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.7% 24.6% 4.06
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.1% 67.0% 1.49
Both score 2nd half only 21.1% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 11.2% 10.5% 9.50
Both score in both halves 3.6% 4.9% 20.37
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.2% 85.5% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.8% 14.5% 6.91
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 50.8% 53.3% 1.88
A goal in each half 49.2% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.7% 47.4% 49.1% 0.97× 2.11
0-1 goals 29.0% 26.5% 20.4% 1.30× 3.78
4-6 goals 22.0% 22.8% 26.2% 0.87× 4.38
7+ goals 1.3% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 55.12
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 0 41.1% 37.0% 28.8% 1.29× 2.70
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.0% 32.3% 1.11× 2.78
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 2 16.2% 19.5% 21.1% 0.93× 5.12
IFK Göteborg to score 3+ 6.1% 8.5% 18.3% 0.46× 11.83
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score exactly 1 32.7% 32.7% 32.8% 0.99× 3.06
GAIS to score exactly 2 25.6% 26.5% 22.1% 1.20× 3.77
GAIS to score exactly 0 20.8% 23.3% 23.9% 0.97× 4.30
GAIS to score 3+ 20.8% 23.3% 21.6% 1.08× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.0% 52.2% 1.92
GAIS leading at HT 38.1% 37.8% 2.65
IFK Göteborg leading at HT 16.9% 15.6% 6.41
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS -1: 2 47.4% 46.9% 2.13
GAIS -1: 1 28.0% 26.6% 3.76
GAIS -1: X 24.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (0:1) 47.4% 45.9% 59.3% 0.77× 2.18
GAIS (0:1) 28.0% 27.0% 23.7% 1.14× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 24.6% 24.3% 17.3% 1.40× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (0:2) 72.0% 75.6% 76.3% 0.99× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 16.4% 15.3% 12.5% 1.23× 6.54
GAIS (0:2) 11.7% 11.0% 11.5% 0.96× 9.11
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (0:3) 88.3% 90.8% 88.6% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.7% 5.8% 6.9% 0.85× 17.17
GAIS (0:3) 4.0% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (0:4) 96.0% 98.1% 95.2% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.8% 1.2% 3.8% 0.31× 83.28
GAIS (0:4) 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.48
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (1:0) 79.3% 78.5% 63.4% 1.24× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 13.6% 12.8% 20.4% 0.63× 7.80
IFK Göteborg (1:0) 7.0% 6.9% 16.5% 0.42× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS (2:0) 93.0% 94.0% 83.5% 1.13× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.3% 6.4% 10.4% 0.62× 15.55
IFK Göteborg (2:0) 1.8% 2.3% 6.4% 0.35× 44.40
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.6% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to concede 58.9% 61.0% 71.2% 0.86× 1.64
GAIS clean sheet 41.1% 39.0% 28.8% 1.36× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS clean sheet in 1st half 70.1% 67.8% 1.48
GAIS to concede in 1st half 29.9% 32.2% 3.11
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS over 2.5 corners 90.0% 89.3% 1.12
GAIS over 3.5 corners 79.9% 76.6% 1.31
GAIS over 4.5 corners 67.1% 66.7% 1.50
GAIS under 6.5 corners 60.0% 57.5% 1.74
GAIS over 5.5 corners 53.2% 52.8% 1.90
GAIS under 5.5 corners 46.8% 47.2% 2.12
GAIS over 6.5 corners 40.0% 42.5% 2.35
GAIS under 4.5 corners 32.9% 33.3% 3.00
GAIS under 3.5 corners 20.1% 23.4% 4.27
GAIS under 2.5 corners 10.0% 10.7% 9.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 3.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
GAIS over 0.5 goals 79.2% 77.7% 76.1% 1.02× 1.29
GAIS under 2.5 goals 79.2% 77.7% 78.4% 0.99× 1.29
GAIS under 1.5 goals 53.5% 53.3% 56.5% 0.94× 1.88
GAIS over 1.5 goals 46.5% 46.7% 43.5% 1.07× 2.14
GAIS under 0.5 goals 20.8% 22.3% 23.9% 0.93× 4.49
GAIS over 2.5 goals 20.8% 22.3% 21.6% 1.03× 4.49
GAIS over 3.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 9.4% 0.82× 12.92
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS under 1.5 in 1st half 85.3% 89.8% 1.11
GAIS over 0.5 in 1st half 49.0% 50.7% 1.97
GAIS under 0.5 in 1st half 51.0% 49.3% 2.03
GAIS over 1.5 in 1st half 14.7% 10.2% 9.80
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 56.4% 56.7% 38.5% 1.47× 1.76
IFK Göteborg (home no bet) 43.6% 43.3% 61.5% 0.70× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS even goals 52.2% 50.6% 53.9% 0.94× 1.98
GAIS odd goals 47.8% 49.4% 46.1% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.8% 38.2% 2.62
HT 1-0 24.0% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 12.6% 11.0% 9.11
HT 1-1 8.7% 7.1% 14.15
HT 2-0 8.1% 7.1% 14.16
Any other HT score 3.7% 2.3% 43.79
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.3% 43.85
HT 0-2 2.3% 2.3% 43.90
HT 1-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.96
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 44.03
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS at HT / GAIS at FT 31.8% 32.3% 3.09
Draw at HT / GAIS at FT 18.5% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.5% 16.8% 5.94
IFK Göteborg at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 10.4% 12.6% 7.91
Draw at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 9.0% 6.0% 16.54
GAIS at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% 28.80
IFK Göteborg at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% 28.82
IFK Göteborg at HT / GAIS at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.90
GAIS at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 1.4% 3.5% 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS to score last 58.0% 56.7% 1.76
IFK Göteborg to score last 32.7% 33.1% 3.02
No goal scored 9.2% 7.6% 13.23
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.8% 92.5% 1.08
GAIS to lead by 1 at any time 65.3% 69.3% 1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 44.1% 39.3% 2.55
IFK Göteborg to lead by 1 at any time 36.9% 34.8% 2.88
GAIS to lead by 2 at any time 33.5% 29.4% 3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.1% 14.9% 6.69
GAIS to lead by 3 at any time 13.6% 10.4% 9.59
IFK Göteborg to lead by 2 at any time 10.8% 10.4% 9.65
IFK Göteborg to lead by 3 at any time 2.5% 1.6% 64.04
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS most corners 51.9% 51.9% 1.93
IFK Göteborg most corners 38.0% 39.4% 2.54
Corners level 10.1% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.8% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.5% 83.5% 78.4% 1.07× 1.20
2-6 goals 69.7% 69.0% 75.1% 0.92× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.4% 69.0% 64.1% 1.08× 1.45
2-5 goals 67.1% 69.0% 71.8% 0.96× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.7% 63.4% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.7% 48.7% 49.1% 0.99× 2.06
1-2 goals 46.3% 48.7% 42.0% 1.16× 2.06
3-6 goals 43.2% 43.6% 48.3% 0.90× 2.30
3-5 goals 40.6% 43.6% 45.0% 0.97× 2.30
3-4 goals 34.2% 35.4% 36.6% 0.97× 2.83
4-6 goals 22.0% 24.5% 26.2% 0.93× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.4% 18.6% 22.9% 0.81× 5.37
5-6 goals 9.0% 8.8% 12.0% 0.73× 11.42
7+ goals 1.3% 2.5% 4.8% 0.52× 39.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
GAIS never behind 53.9% 62.5% 1.60
IFK Göteborg never behind 25.4% 29.8% 3.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.3% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.7% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.6% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 43.4% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.3% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.7% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.1% 95.5% 91.9% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.7% 87.7% 83.5% 1.05× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.7% 77.4% 69.2% 1.12× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 71.0% 72.5% 79.6% 0.91× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 55.5% 58.8% 47.1% 1.25× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 44.5% 41.2% 52.9% 0.78× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 29.0% 27.5% 20.4% 1.35× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 23.3% 22.6% 30.8% 0.74× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 10.3% 12.3% 16.5% 0.75× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 5.3% 1.45× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 3.9% 4.5% 8.1% 0.55× 22.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.7% 97.3% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.8% 97.2% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.1% 86.7% 80.7% 1.07× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.4% 72.6% 60.5% 1.20× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 60.6% 62.1% 72.2% 0.86× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 39.4% 37.9% 27.8% 1.37× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.6% 27.4% 39.5% 0.69× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.9% 13.3% 19.3% 0.69× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.2% 2.8% 8.9% 0.31× 36.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.3% 2.7% 5.0% 0.55× 36.38
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.4% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.4% 70.9% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.2% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.8% 36.3% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.6% 29.1% 3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.6% 7.3% 13.72
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.7% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.8% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.0% 54.7% 1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 42.0% 45.3% 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.2% 20.1% 4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.3% 17.1% 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to score in both halves 87.6% 86.0% 1.16
GAIS not to score in both halves 71.0% 74.0% 1.35
GAIS to score in both halves 29.0% 26.0% 3.84
IFK Göteborg to score in both halves 12.4% 14.0% 7.17
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.3% 50.4% 52.7% 0.96× 1.98
Only GAIS scores 31.9% 33.4% 23.7% 1.41× 3.00
Only IFK Göteborg scores 11.6% 10.9% 18.8% 0.58× 9.14
Neither team scores 9.2% 7.2% 5.3% 1.35× 13.89
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.5% 24.9% 27.0% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 22.6% 22.4% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 19.7% 17.4% 15.3% 1.14× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.0% 12.1% 14.5% 0.83× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 9.2% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 0.88× 13.10
6 or more goals 3.9% 4.4% 8.1% 0.54× 22.68
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 42.0% 43.9% 2.28
1 goal in 2nd half 33.8% 33.7% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 24.2% 23.1% 4.32
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to win both halves 96.4% 97.2% 1.03
GAIS not to win both halves 83.9% 84.2% 1.19
GAIS to win both halves 16.1% 15.8% 6.33
IFK Göteborg to win both halves 3.6% 2.8% 35.55
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to win neither half 66.0% 67.8% 1.48
GAIS to win either half 63.9% 65.3% 1.53
GAIS to win neither half 36.1% 34.7% 2.88
IFK Göteborg to win either half 34.0% 32.2% 3.11
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to win to nil 88.4% 88.2% 81.2% 1.09× 1.13
GAIS not to win to nil 68.1% 69.6% 76.3% 0.91× 1.44
GAIS to win to nil 31.9% 30.4% 23.7% 1.28× 3.29
IFK Göteborg to win to nil 11.6% 11.8% 18.8% 0.63× 8.49
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.7% 27.8% 22.9% 1.21× 3.60
GAIS by 1 24.6% 24.2% 17.3% 1.40× 4.14
GAIS by 2 16.4% 16.9% 12.5% 1.36× 5.90
IFK Göteborg by 1 13.6% 11.8% 20.4% 0.58× 8.47
GAIS by 3+ 11.7% 11.8% 11.5% 1.03× 8.47
IFK Göteborg by 2 5.3% 7.2% 10.4% 0.69× 13.81
IFK Göteborg by 3+ 1.8% 2.7% 6.4% 0.42× 37.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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