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Gaziantep FK v Fenerbahce — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 14 September 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627

TUR-Super Lig results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Gaziantep FK win
10.6%
model 12.2%
Draw
20.1%
model 19.0%
Fenerbahce win
69.4%
model 68.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-2 9.9%
  2. 1-2 9.6%
  3. 1-1 8.8%
  4. 0-3 8.0%
  5. 1-3 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.566.0% Under 2.534.0%
BTTS yes57.3% BTTS no42.7%
Gaziantep FK 1+61.9% Gaziantep FK 2+25.1%
Fenerbahce 1+91.2% Fenerbahce 2+69.9%

Expected goals 0.96 – 2.43. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Fenerbahce (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 29%
69.2% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Gaziantep FK not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1418.
  • Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Fenerbahce have an estimated 69.4% win probability, against 20.1% for the draw and 10.6% for Gaziantep FK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for Gaziantep FK and 2.43 for Fenerbahce.

Why Gaziantep FK

Nothing in the data singles out Gaziantep FK.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.1%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Fenerbahce can win

Fenerbahce carry the stronger rating, 1760 Elo against 1418. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Gaziantep FK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fenerbahce, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Gaziantep FK: 55% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fenerbahce: 59% possession, 20.8 shots a match, 9.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Fenerbahce are the model's most likely outcome at 69.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-2 at 9.9%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.96–2.43 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.12–2.52 1-2 9% 70% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 67.0% 65.0% 28.7% 2.27× 1.54
Draw 19.0% 19.4% 26.0% 0.74× 5.17
Gaziantep FK to win 14.1% 13.3% 45.4% 0.29× 7.50
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & both teams score 37.8% 33.2% 14.5% 2.29× 3.01
Fenerbahce & not both score 29.2% 25.2% 14.3% 1.76× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 15.5% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Gaziantep FK & both teams score 9.5% 8.4% 23.2% 0.36× 11.92
Gaziantep FK & not both score 4.5% 4.9% 22.3% 0.22× 20.55
Draw & not both score 3.5% 4.9% 8.0% 0.61× 20.58
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce & over 1.5 61.2% 54.6% 22.3% 2.44× 1.83
Fenerbahce & over 2.5 52.8% 48.7% 18.0% 2.70× 2.05
Fenerbahce & over 3.5 36.5% 34.9% 9.3% 3.74× 2.87
Fenerbahce & under 3.5 30.5% 30.9% 19.5% 1.58× 3.24
Draw & over 1.5 15.5% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Fenerbahce & under 2.5 14.1% 12.9% 10.8% 1.19× 7.77
Gaziantep FK & over 1.5 12.0% 12.9% 36.2% 0.36× 7.77
Draw & under 2.5 11.8% 12.9% 20.4% 0.63× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 11.8% 12.9% 20.4% 0.63× 7.77
Gaziantep FK & over 2.5 10.4% 12.9% 30.3% 0.42× 7.77
Gaziantep FK & under 3.5 8.5% 7.9% 29.4% 0.27× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 7.2% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 7.2% 7.9% 5.8% 1.37× 12.70
Gaziantep FK & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 16.1% 0.49× 12.70
Fenerbahce & under 1.5 5.8% 7.9% 6.5% 1.21× 12.70
Gaziantep FK & under 2.5 3.7% 4.8% 15.2% 0.31× 20.94
Draw & under 1.5 3.5% 4.8% 8.0% 0.60× 20.94
Gaziantep FK & under 1.5 2.1% 4.8% 9.3% 0.51× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1UP) 79.6% 79.1% 1.26
Gaziantep FK (1UP) 35.1% 34.1% 2.93
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (2UP) 67.0% 68.7% 1.46
Gaziantep FK (2UP) 14.1% 13.6% 7.37
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win 2nd half 58.2% 60.0% 1.67
2nd half drawn 26.5% 26.3% 3.81
Gaziantep FK to win 2nd half 15.3% 18.8% 5.32
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (+2.5) 98.4% 96.3% 90.1% 1.07× 1.04
Fenerbahce (+1.5) 94.6% 92.1% 78.6% 1.17× 1.09
Fenerbahce (+0.5) 85.9% 88.5% 54.6% 1.62× 1.13
Fenerbahce (-0.5) 67.0% 68.7% 28.7% 2.39× 1.46
Gaziantep FK (+0.5) 33.0% 31.3% 71.3% 0.44× 3.20
Gaziantep FK (-0.5) 14.1% 11.5% 45.4% 0.25× 8.69
Gaziantep FK (-1.5) 5.4% 7.9% 21.5% 0.37× 12.65
Gaziantep FK (-2.5) 1.6% 3.7% 9.9% 0.37× 26.97
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to concede 67.3% 72.5% 77.8% 0.93× 1.38
Fenerbahce clean sheet 32.7% 27.5% 22.2% 1.24× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce clean sheet in 1st half 61.8% 64.8% 1.54
Fenerbahce to concede in 1st half 38.2% 35.2% 2.85
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce over 2.5 corners 90.5% 90.0% 1.11
Fenerbahce over 3.5 corners 81.0% 81.5% 1.23
Fenerbahce over 4.5 corners 69.0% 67.5% 1.48
Fenerbahce under 6.5 corners 56.8% 57.1% 1.75
Fenerbahce over 5.5 corners 55.9% 57.1% 1.75
Fenerbahce under 5.5 corners 44.1% 42.9% 2.33
Fenerbahce over 6.5 corners 43.2% 42.9% 2.33
Fenerbahce under 4.5 corners 31.0% 32.5% 3.08
Fenerbahce under 3.5 corners 19.0% 18.5% 5.39
Fenerbahce under 2.5 corners 9.5% 10.0% 10.03
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 69.8% 1.32× 1.08
Fenerbahce under 3.5 goals 75.4% 76.2% 95.4% 0.80× 1.31
Fenerbahce over 1.5 goals 71.7% 71.9% 34.8% 2.07× 1.39
Fenerbahce under 2.5 goals 53.9% 53.7% 86.2% 0.62× 1.86
Fenerbahce over 2.5 goals 46.1% 46.3% 13.8% 3.37× 2.16
Fenerbahce under 1.5 goals 28.3% 28.1% 65.2% 0.43× 3.56
Fenerbahce over 3.5 goals 24.6% 23.8% 4.6% 5.19× 4.20
Fenerbahce under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 30.2% 0.25× 13.03
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce under 1.5 in 1st half 73.3% 68.9% 1.45
Fenerbahce over 0.5 in 1st half 63.5% 64.2% 1.56
Fenerbahce under 0.5 in 1st half 36.5% 35.8% 2.79
Fenerbahce over 1.5 in 1st half 26.7% 31.1% 3.22
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 57.4% 57.5% 36.4% 1.58× 1.74
Gaziantep FK (away no bet) 42.6% 42.5% 63.6% 0.67× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce even goals 50.3% 52.8% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
Fenerbahce odd goals 49.7% 47.2% 45.6% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 72.2% 77.1% 1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals 27.8% 22.9% 4.36
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 79.8% 72.9% 1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals 20.2% 27.1% 3.68
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 73.3% 72.1% 1.39
Fenerbahce to score 2+ in a row 63.3% 59.9% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 37.5% 36.5% 2.74
Fenerbahce to score 3+ in a row 33.9% 29.0% 3.44
Gaziantep FK to score 2+ in a row 19.4% 16.4% 6.10
Gaziantep FK to score 3+ in a row 4.2% 2.6% 38.00
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce corners (+3.5) 93.7% 89.6% 1.12
Fenerbahce corners (+2.5) 89.6% 84.5% 1.18
Fenerbahce corners (+1.5) 83.9% 79.7% 1.25
Gaziantep FK corners (+3.5) 63.7% 61.9% 1.62
Fenerbahce corners (-1.5) 57.0% 57.1% 1.75
Gaziantep FK corners (+2.5) 53.6% 52.5% 1.91
Fenerbahce corners (-2.5) 46.4% 47.5% 2.10
Gaziantep FK corners (+1.5) 43.1% 42.9% 2.33
Fenerbahce corners (-3.5) 36.3% 38.1% 2.63
Gaziantep FK corners (-1.5) 16.1% 20.3% 4.94
Gaziantep FK corners (-2.5) 10.4% 15.5% 6.46
Gaziantep FK corners (-3.5) 6.3% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 35.7% 33.7% 2.97
0-8 corners 34.4% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.9% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 75.3% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 72.7% 72.6% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 65.6% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 64.3% 63.4% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 55.3% 57.8% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 54.9% 53.3% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 45.1% 46.7% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 44.7% 42.3% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 35.7% 36.6% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 34.4% 32.3% 3.09
Over 12.5 corners 27.3% 27.4% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 24.7% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Any other score 11.6% 11.5% 4.1% 2.77× 8.73
0-2 8.4% 7.4% 4.4% 1.67× 13.48
1-2 9.3% 7.4% 6.7% 1.11× 13.48
0-3 7.0% 7.4% 2.4% 3.13× 13.48
1-1 8.3% 7.4% 12.6% 0.59× 13.48
1-3 7.9% 7.4% 2.7% 2.79× 13.48
0-1 5.8% 7.4% 6.5% 1.14× 13.48
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 4.6% 1.62× 13.48
1-4 5.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.65× 58.46
0-0 3.5% 1.7% 8.0% 0.21× 58.47
0-4 4.4% 1.7% 1.2% 1.45× 58.46
1-0 2.1% 1.7% 9.3% 0.18× 58.48
2-0 1.6% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.48
2-1 4.1% 1.7% 9.9% 0.17× 58.47
2-3 4.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.46
2-4 2.8% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.47
3-0 0.6% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.49
3-1 1.5% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.48
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.48
3-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.3% 1.28× 58.48
3-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.4% 3.85× 58.48
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.49
4-1 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.16× 58.49
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.44× 58.49
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.7% 2.31× 58.49
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 11.56× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT (DNB) 73.6% 71.8% 1.39
Gaziantep FK leading at HT (DNB) 26.4% 28.2% 3.55
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (X2) 85.9% 86.7% 54.6% 1.59× 1.15
Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahce (12) 81.0% 80.7% 74.0% 1.09× 1.24
Gaziantep FK or draw (1X) 33.0% 35.0% 71.3% 0.49× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw at HT 82.9% 84.5% 1.18
Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahce at HT 64.8% 62.1% 1.61
Gaziantep FK or draw at HT 52.3% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw (1UP) 85.9% 91.6% 1.09
Gaziantep FK or draw (1UP) 35.1% 42.0% 2.38
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce or draw in 2nd half 84.7% 81.2% 1.23
Gaziantep FK or Fenerbahce in 2nd half 73.5% 73.8% 1.36
Gaziantep FK or draw in 2nd half 41.8% 40.0% 2.50
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 48.7% 50.2% 1.99
A half drawn 51.3% 49.8% 2.01
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (DNB) 82.6% 80.5% 38.7% 2.08× 1.24
Gaziantep FK (DNB) 17.4% 19.5% 61.3% 0.32× 5.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score first 66.9% 69.2% 1.44
Gaziantep FK to score first 29.6% 28.5% 3.51
No goal scored 3.5% 4.3% 23.36
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 62.8% 56.5% 55.6% 1.02× 1.77
Not both teams to score 37.2% 43.5% 44.4% 0.98× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 54.5% 47.1% 43.2% 1.09× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 21.3% 27.7% 33.7% 0.82× 3.61
Not both score & over 2.5 15.9% 21.7% 10.8% 2.01× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 8.3% 8.4% 12.6% 0.67× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 78.0% 79.9% 83.4% 0.96× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 22.0% 20.1% 16.6% 1.21× 4.99
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 63.0% 66.1% 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.0% 33.9% 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.5% 53.4% 1.87
Both score 2nd half only 28.1% 26.5% 3.77
Both score 1st half only 15.5% 15.5% 6.43
Both score in both halves 8.9% 6.8% 14.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.6% 81.4% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 24.4% 18.6% 5.38
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 68.8% 67.0% 1.49
A half without a goal 31.2% 33.0% 3.03
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
4-6 goals 41.7% 42.1% 28.4% 1.48× 2.38
2-3 goals 39.4% 35.1% 45.7% 0.77× 2.85
0-1 goals 11.3% 16.9% 23.5% 0.72× 5.91
7+ goals 7.6% 7.6% 2.7% 2.85× 13.17
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score 3+ 46.1% 42.9% 13.8% 3.12× 2.33
Fenerbahce to score exactly 2 25.6% 27.4% 21.2% 1.30× 3.65
Fenerbahce to score exactly 1 20.3% 22.4% 35.2% 0.64× 4.47
Fenerbahce to score exactly 0 8.0% 8.5% 30.2% 0.28× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 32.1% 1.11× 2.81
Gaziantep FK to score exactly 0 32.7% 32.7% 22.2% 1.47× 3.06
Gaziantep FK to score exactly 2 20.4% 23.2% 23.8% 0.98× 4.30
Gaziantep FK to score 3+ 10.3% 14.3% 22.2% 0.64× 6.99
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce leading at HT 47.7% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 35.2% 37.9% 2.64
Gaziantep FK leading at HT 17.1% 15.5% 6.44
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce -1: 2 46.3% 46.9% 2.13
Fenerbahce -1: 1 33.0% 30.1% 3.33
Fenerbahce -1: X 20.7% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (0:1) 85.9% 89.0% 54.6% 1.63× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 8.7% 9.2% 24.1% 0.38× 10.84
Gaziantep FK (0:1) 5.4% 9.1% 21.5% 0.43× 10.93
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (0:2) 94.6% 90.9% 78.6% 1.16× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 3.8% 3.8% 11.7% 0.32× 26.53
Gaziantep FK (0:2) 1.6% 3.8% 9.9% 0.38× 26.67
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (0:3) 98.4% 96.6% 90.1% 1.07× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.2% 2.4% 6.5% 0.36× 42.21
Gaziantep FK (0:3) 0.4% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 42.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (0:4) 99.6% 98.1% 96.5% 1.02× 1.02
Gaziantep FK (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.2% 1.01× 83.68
Draw (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 2.5% 0.48× 83.65
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (1:0) 46.3% 49.6% 13.0% 3.81× 2.02
Gaziantep FK (1:0) 33.0% 30.4% 71.3% 0.43× 3.29
Draw (1:0) 20.7% 21.8% 15.8% 1.37× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK (2:0) 53.7% 55.8% 87.0% 0.64× 1.79
Fenerbahce (2:0) 26.7% 23.4% 5.5% 4.27× 4.28
Draw (2:0) 19.6% 15.7% 7.7% 2.05× 6.35
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.0% 50.3% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 26.0% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.0% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK to concede 92.0% 93.1% 69.8% 1.33× 1.07
Gaziantep FK clean sheet 8.0% 6.9% 30.2% 0.23× 14.49
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK to concede in 1st half 63.5% 64.2% 1.56
Gaziantep FK clean sheet in 1st half 36.5% 35.8% 2.80
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK under 6.5 corners 85.5% 86.3% 1.16
Gaziantep FK under 5.5 corners 75.9% 76.6% 1.31
Gaziantep FK over 2.5 corners 71.8% 71.9% 1.39
Gaziantep FK under 4.5 corners 62.5% 62.3% 1.61
Gaziantep FK over 3.5 corners 54.1% 52.8% 1.89
Gaziantep FK under 3.5 corners 45.9% 47.2% 2.12
Gaziantep FK over 4.5 corners 37.5% 37.7% 2.65
Gaziantep FK under 2.5 corners 28.2% 28.1% 3.56
Gaziantep FK over 5.5 corners 24.1% 23.5% 4.26
Gaziantep FK over 6.5 corners 14.6% 13.7% 7.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK under 3.5 goals 97.3% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Gaziantep FK under 2.5 goals 89.7% 87.3% 77.8% 1.12× 1.15
Gaziantep FK under 1.5 goals 69.2% 67.9% 54.1% 1.25× 1.47
Gaziantep FK over 0.5 goals 67.3% 67.9% 77.8% 0.87× 1.47
Gaziantep FK under 0.5 goals 32.7% 32.1% 22.2% 1.45× 3.11
Gaziantep FK over 1.5 goals 30.8% 32.1% 45.9% 0.70× 3.11
Gaziantep FK over 2.5 goals 10.3% 12.7% 22.2% 0.57× 7.86
Gaziantep FK over 3.5 goals 2.7% 3.6% 7.4% 0.49× 27.49
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK under 1.5 in 1st half 91.6% 95.3% 1.05
Gaziantep FK under 0.5 in 1st half 61.8% 64.6% 1.55
Gaziantep FK over 0.5 in 1st half 38.2% 35.4% 2.83
Gaziantep FK over 1.5 in 1st half 8.4% 4.7% 21.35
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce (home no bet) 77.9% 78.9% 52.4% 1.51× 1.27
Draw (home no bet) 22.1% 21.1% 47.6% 0.44× 4.75
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK even goals 55.3% 55.4% 50.9% 1.09× 1.80
Gaziantep FK odd goals 44.7% 44.6% 49.1% 0.91× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 22.7% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-1 22.6% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-2 11.5% 10.9% 9.16
HT 1-1 11.1% 10.9% 9.17
HT 1-0 10.7% 10.9% 9.17
Any other HT score 9.4% 7.1% 14.02
HT 1-2 5.5% 7.1% 14.07
HT 2-0 2.6% 2.3% 43.42
HT 2-1 2.6% 2.3% 43.42
HT 2-2 1.3% 2.3% 43.51
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 42.4% 43.2% 2.32
Draw at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 19.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.4% 12.7% 7.90
Gaziantep FK at HT / Gaziantep FK at FT 7.9% 6.0% 16.65
Draw at HT / Gaziantep FK at FT 4.9% 3.5% 28.77
Gaziantep FK at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.78
Gaziantep FK at HT / Fenerbahce at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.78
Fenerbahce at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.81
Fenerbahce at HT / Gaziantep FK at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to score last 67.0% 70.1% 1.43
Gaziantep FK to score last 29.5% 27.2% 3.67
No goal scored 3.5% 4.3% 23.36
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.5% 95.6% 1.05
Fenerbahce to lead by 1 at any time 79.6% 78.5% 1.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 64.3% 61.4% 1.63
Fenerbahce to lead by 2 at any time 54.2% 50.7% 1.97
Gaziantep FK to lead by 1 at any time 35.1% 34.8% 2.88
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 33.6% 29.4% 3.40
Fenerbahce to lead by 3 at any time 30.9% 29.3% 3.41
Gaziantep FK to lead by 2 at any time 10.7% 10.4% 9.58
Gaziantep FK to lead by 3 at any time 2.7% 1.6% 61.63
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce most corners 67.2% 64.5% 1.55
Gaziantep FK most corners 23.7% 26.0% 3.85
Corners level 9.2% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-6 goals 81.1% 83.5% 74.0% 1.13× 1.20
1-5 goals 80.5% 83.5% 85.5% 0.98× 1.20
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.4% 70.0% 1.04× 1.38
1-4 goals 66.5% 68.9% 75.4% 0.91× 1.45
3-6 goals 62.8% 63.4% 51.3% 1.24× 1.58
2-4 goals 58.6% 59.2% 59.9% 0.99× 1.69
3-5 goals 54.3% 53.2% 47.3% 1.12× 1.88
1-3 goals 47.2% 48.7% 61.2% 0.79× 2.06
4-6 goals 41.7% 43.6% 28.4% 1.53× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 37.3% 1.17× 2.30
2-3 goals 39.4% 39.2% 45.7% 0.86× 2.55
4-5 goals 33.2% 35.4% 24.4% 1.45× 2.83
1-2 goals 26.1% 30.2% 38.3% 0.79× 3.31
5-6 goals 22.5% 24.5% 14.2% 1.72× 4.09
7+ goals 7.6% 8.7% 2.7% 3.28× 11.45
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce never behind 61.4% 67.4% 1.48
Gaziantep FK never behind 16.9% 18.6% 5.38
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.2% 50.8% 50.7% 1.00× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.8% 49.2% 49.3% 1.00× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.8% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.2% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.3% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.7% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.5% 95.5% 92.0% 1.04× 1.05
Over 1.5 goals 88.7% 87.7% 76.5% 1.15× 1.14
Under 5.5 goals 83.9% 82.4% 93.3% 0.88× 1.21
Over 2.5 goals 70.4% 72.5% 53.8% 1.35× 1.38
Under 4.5 goals 70.0% 66.2% 83.3% 0.80× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 50.7% 52.5% 69.1% 0.76× 1.91
Over 3.5 goals 49.3% 47.5% 30.9% 1.54× 2.10
Over 4.5 goals 30.0% 33.8% 16.7% 2.02× 2.96
Under 2.5 goals 29.6% 27.5% 46.2% 0.60× 3.64
Over 5.5 goals 16.1% 17.6% 6.7% 2.65× 5.68
Under 1.5 goals 11.3% 12.3% 23.5% 0.53× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 3.5% 4.5% 8.0% 0.56× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 91.7% 92.5% 97.2% 0.95× 1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 86.1% 86.7% 69.6% 1.25× 1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 81.3% 81.0% 92.6% 0.88× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 62.8% 62.1% 80.5% 0.77× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.5% 62.1% 40.1% 1.55× 1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.5% 37.9% 59.9% 0.63× 2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 37.2% 37.9% 19.5% 1.95× 2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 18.7% 19.0% 7.4% 2.56× 5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 13.9% 13.3% 30.4% 0.44× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 8.3% 7.5% 2.8% 2.72× 13.25
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 81.2% 86.2% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 77.3% 78.8% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 56.0% 62.6% 1.60
Over 1.5 in 1st half 44.0% 37.4% 2.67
Under 0.5 in 1st half 22.7% 21.2% 4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half 18.8% 13.8% 7.23
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 88.0% 85.4% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 63.7% 61.8% 1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 63.6% 61.8% 1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 36.4% 38.2% 2.62
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 36.3% 38.2% 2.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 12.0% 14.6% 6.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK not to score in both halves 82.0% 84.3% 1.19
Fenerbahce not to score in both halves 50.5% 55.4% 1.80
Fenerbahce to score in both halves 49.5% 44.6% 2.24
Gaziantep FK to score in both halves 18.0% 15.7% 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 62.8% 60.2% 55.6% 1.08× 1.66
Only Fenerbahce scores 29.2% 26.1% 14.3% 1.82× 3.83
Only Gaziantep FK scores 4.5% 4.6% 22.3% 0.21× 21.79
Neither team scores 3.5% 4.6% 8.0% 0.57× 21.84
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.1% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 19.2% 17.4% 14.3% 1.22× 5.74
Exactly 2 goals 18.3% 17.4% 22.8% 0.77× 5.74
6 or more goals 16.1% 17.4% 6.7% 2.62× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 14.0% 12.1% 10.2% 1.18× 8.27
Exactly 1 goals 7.8% 7.6% 15.7% 0.49× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 3.5% 4.4% 8.0% 0.55× 22.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 63.6% 58.7% 1.71
1 goal in 2nd half 24.5% 23.2% 4.31
No goals in 2nd half 12.0% 14.4% 6.94
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK not to win both halves 97.3% 97.2% 1.03
Fenerbahce not to win both halves 72.0% 72.6% 1.38
Fenerbahce to win both halves 28.0% 27.4% 3.65
Gaziantep FK to win both halves 2.7% 2.8% 36.12
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce to win either half 77.9% 79.8% 1.25
Gaziantep FK to win neither half 70.3% 72.8% 1.37
Gaziantep FK to win either half 29.7% 27.2% 3.67
Fenerbahce to win neither half 22.1% 20.2% 4.94
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gaziantep FK not to win to nil 95.5% 96.1% 77.7% 1.24× 1.04
Fenerbahce not to win to nil 70.8% 75.3% 85.7% 0.88× 1.33
Fenerbahce to win to nil 29.2% 24.7% 14.3% 1.72× 4.05
Gaziantep FK to win to nil 4.5% 3.9% 22.3% 0.17× 25.67
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Fenerbahce by 3+ 26.7% 27.8% 5.5% 5.09× 3.59
Fenerbahce by 1 20.7% 24.1% 15.8% 1.53× 4.14
Fenerbahce by 2 19.6% 16.9% 7.7% 2.20× 5.91
Draw 19.0% 16.9% 26.0% 0.65× 5.91
Gaziantep FK by 1 8.7% 7.3% 24.1% 0.30× 13.78
Gaziantep FK by 2 3.8% 2.7% 11.7% 0.23× 36.96
Gaziantep FK by 3+ 1.6% 2.7% 9.9% 0.27× 37.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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