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Gazovik Orenburg v Akron Tolyatti — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Gazovik Orenburg win
46.9%
model 46.4%
Draw
26.6%
model 28.2%
Akron Tolyatti win
26.5%
model 25.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.5%
  2. 1-0 10.4%
  3. 2-1 9.3%
  4. 0-0 8.9%
  5. 2-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.547.4% Under 2.552.6%
BTTS yes52.1% BTTS no47.9%
Gazovik Orenburg 1+77.9% Gazovik Orenburg 2+44.6%
Akron Tolyatti 1+65.3% Akron Tolyatti 2+28.6%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.06. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 80%
78.9% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2095 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Gazovik Orenburg carry the stronger rating, 1402 Elo against 1343.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Gazovik Orenburg have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 26.6% for the draw and 26.5% for Akron Tolyatti. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.51 for Gazovik Orenburg and 1.06 for Akron Tolyatti.

Why Gazovik Orenburg

Gazovik Orenburg carry the stronger rating, 1402 Elo against 1343.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Akron Tolyatti can win

Nothing in the data singles out Akron Tolyatti.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Gazovik Orenburg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Akron Tolyatti, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Gazovik Orenburg: 38% possession, 13.6 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Akron Tolyatti: 55% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 15.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Gazovik Orenburg are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.5%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.51–1.06 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.52–1.13 1-1 13% 50% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to win 45.0% 47.4% 44.2% 1.07× 2.11
Draw 27.9% 27.9% 27.8% 1.00× 3.59
Akron Tolyatti to win 27.1% 27.9% 28.2% 0.99× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg & not both score 24.0% 21.9% 25.6% 0.86× 4.57
Gazovik Orenburg & both teams score 21.1% 21.9% 18.8% 1.16× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.7% 17.9% 20.7% 0.87× 5.58
Akron Tolyatti & both teams score 13.5% 13.3% 13.5% 0.98× 7.54
Akron Tolyatti & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 14.9% 0.89× 7.54
Draw & not both score 8.2% 8.4% 7.4% 1.14× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg & over 1.5 35.6% 34.9% 33.5% 1.04× 2.87
Gazovik Orenburg & under 3.5 31.0% 30.9% 30.9% 1.00× 3.24
Gazovik Orenburg & over 2.5 27.4% 26.0% 26.0% 1.00× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 21.5% 21.7% 22.1% 0.98× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.5% 21.7% 22.1% 0.98× 4.62
Akron Tolyatti & over 1.5 20.3% 21.7% 20.7% 1.05× 4.62
Akron Tolyatti & under 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 20.7% 0.87× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.7% 18.0% 20.7% 0.87× 5.56
Gazovik Orenburg & under 2.5 17.6% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.56
Akron Tolyatti & over 2.5 15.8% 18.0% 16.6% 1.09× 5.56
Gazovik Orenburg & over 3.5 14.1% 12.9% 13.5% 0.95× 7.77
Akron Tolyatti & under 2.5 11.2% 12.9% 11.9% 1.08× 7.77
Gazovik Orenburg & under 1.5 9.5% 7.9% 10.8% 0.73× 12.69
Akron Tolyatti & over 3.5 7.2% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 7.4% 1.07× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.4% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.4% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.70
Akron Tolyatti & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (1UP) 60.7% 63.0% 1.59
Akron Tolyatti (1UP) 45.0% 39.6% 2.53
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (2UP) 45.0% 49.6% 2.02
Akron Tolyatti (2UP) 27.1% 24.8% 4.03
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to win 2nd half 37.1% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 36.6% 36.1% 2.77
Akron Tolyatti to win 2nd half 26.3% 26.2% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (+2.5) 90.7% 92.1% 89.6% 1.03× 1.09
Akron Tolyatti (+1.5) 76.7% 78.4% 77.3% 1.01× 1.28
Gazovik Orenburg (+0.5) 72.9% 73.7% 71.8% 1.03× 1.36
Akron Tolyatti (+0.5) 55.0% 52.4% 55.8% 0.94× 1.91
Gazovik Orenburg (-0.5) 45.0% 47.6% 44.2% 1.08× 2.10
Akron Tolyatti (-0.5) 27.1% 26.3% 28.2% 0.93× 3.80
Gazovik Orenburg (-1.5) 23.3% 21.6% 22.7% 0.95× 4.64
Gazovik Orenburg (-2.5) 9.3% 7.9% 10.4% 0.76× 12.61
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to concede 78.2% 79.0% 77.9% 1.01× 1.27
Akron Tolyatti clean sheet 21.8% 21.0% 22.1% 0.95× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to concede in 1st half 48.1% 50.7% 1.97
Akron Tolyatti clean sheet in 1st half 51.9% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 6.5 corners 88.8% 85.2% 1.17
Akron Tolyatti under 5.5 corners 80.0% 75.9% 1.32
Akron Tolyatti over 2.5 corners 69.1% 67.5% 1.48
Akron Tolyatti under 4.5 corners 66.9% 67.5% 1.48
Akron Tolyatti over 3.5 corners 50.1% 53.1% 1.88
Akron Tolyatti under 3.5 corners 49.9% 46.9% 2.13
Akron Tolyatti over 4.5 corners 33.1% 32.5% 3.08
Akron Tolyatti under 2.5 corners 30.9% 32.5% 3.08
Akron Tolyatti over 5.5 corners 20.0% 24.1% 4.16
Akron Tolyatti over 6.5 corners 11.2% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 3.5 goals 97.2% 97.5% 96.9% 1.01× 1.03
Akron Tolyatti under 2.5 goals 89.3% 87.9% 88.8% 0.99× 1.14
Akron Tolyatti under 1.5 goals 68.7% 68.0% 70.1% 0.97× 1.47
Akron Tolyatti over 0.5 goals 67.8% 68.0% 67.3% 1.01× 1.47
Akron Tolyatti under 0.5 goals 32.2% 32.0% 32.7% 0.98× 3.12
Akron Tolyatti over 1.5 goals 31.3% 32.0% 29.9% 1.07× 3.12
Akron Tolyatti over 2.5 goals 10.7% 12.1% 11.2% 1.08× 8.26
Akron Tolyatti over 3.5 goals 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 0.80× 40.73
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti under 1.5 in 1st half 92.4% 94.2% 1.06
Akron Tolyatti under 0.5 in 1st half 63.5% 64.2% 1.56
Akron Tolyatti over 0.5 in 1st half 36.5% 35.8% 2.79
Akron Tolyatti over 1.5 in 1st half 7.6% 5.8% 17.16
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (away no bet) 61.8% 62.1% 61.4% 1.01× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 38.2% 37.9% 38.6% 0.98× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti even goals 55.2% 56.9% 53.4% 1.07× 1.76
Akron Tolyatti odd goals 44.8% 43.1% 46.6% 0.93× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.1% 87.6% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.9% 12.4% 8.06
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 62.9% 58.1% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 37.1% 41.9% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.5% 51.4% 1.94
Gazovik Orenburg to score 2+ in a row 37.0% 36.5% 2.74
Akron Tolyatti to score 2+ in a row 23.3% 19.5% 5.12
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.0% 16.4% 6.11
Gazovik Orenburg to score 3+ in a row 13.2% 12.2% 8.20
Akron Tolyatti to score 3+ in a row 6.0% 5.6% 17.80
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg corners (+3.5) 93.6% 89.6% 1.12
Gazovik Orenburg corners (+2.5) 89.1% 84.5% 1.18
Gazovik Orenburg corners (+1.5) 82.5% 79.7% 1.25
Akron Tolyatti corners (+3.5) 70.7% 70.7% 1.41
Akron Tolyatti corners (+2.5) 60.2% 61.9% 1.62
Gazovik Orenburg corners (-1.5) 51.4% 52.5% 1.91
Akron Tolyatti corners (+1.5) 48.6% 47.5% 2.10
Gazovik Orenburg corners (-2.5) 39.8% 38.1% 2.63
Gazovik Orenburg corners (-3.5) 29.3% 29.3% 3.41
Akron Tolyatti corners (-1.5) 17.5% 20.3% 4.93
Akron Tolyatti corners (-2.5) 10.9% 15.5% 6.46
Akron Tolyatti corners (-3.5) 6.4% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 44.7% 38.7% 2.59
9-11 corners 30.7% 33.2% 3.01
12+ corners 24.6% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.6% 80.8% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 75.4% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 66.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Under 9.5 corners 56.0% 57.7% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 55.3% 57.7% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 44.7% 42.3% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 44.0% 42.3% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 33.5% 32.3% 3.09
Under 7.5 corners 33.2% 32.3% 3.09
Over 11.5 corners 24.6% 23.5% 4.25
Over 12.5 corners 17.4% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.3% 11.5% 14.9% 0.77× 8.73
1-0 9.5% 7.4% 10.8% 0.68× 13.48
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.48
1-2 6.9% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.48
2-0 8.1% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.48
0-0 8.2% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.48
0-1 6.7% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.48
2-2 5.2% 7.4% 4.9% 1.51× 13.48
3-1 4.7% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.46
1-3 2.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.47
1-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.67× 58.49
2-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.48
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.49
3-0 4.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.47
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.47
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.49
4-0 1.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.48
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.48
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.48
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.36× 58.49
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.48
0-2 4.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.46
0-3 1.7% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.48
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg leading at HT (DNB) 61.7% 65.7% 1.52
Akron Tolyatti leading at HT (DNB) 38.3% 34.3% 2.92
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg or draw (1X) 72.9% 72.1% 71.8% 1.00× 1.39
Gazovik Orenburg or Akron Tolyatti (12) 72.1% 72.1% 72.2% 1.00× 1.39
Akron Tolyatti or draw (X2) 55.0% 52.6% 55.8% 0.94× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg or draw at HT 78.5% 79.9% 1.25
Akron Tolyatti or draw at HT 65.4% 66.3% 1.51
Gazovik Orenburg or Akron Tolyatti at HT 56.0% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg or draw (1UP) 72.9% 80.2% 1.25
Akron Tolyatti or draw (1UP) 55.0% 59.5% 1.68
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg or draw in 2nd half 73.7% 73.8% 1.36
Gazovik Orenburg or Akron Tolyatti in 2nd half 63.4% 63.9% 1.56
Akron Tolyatti or draw in 2nd half 62.9% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.2% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.8% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (DNB) 62.5% 62.8% 61.0% 1.03× 1.59
Akron Tolyatti (DNB) 37.5% 37.2% 39.0% 0.95× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to score first 52.6% 53.8% 1.86
Akron Tolyatti to score first 39.2% 33.0% 3.03
No goal scored 8.2% 7.5% 13.26
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.3% 51.4% 52.6% 0.98× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.7% 48.6% 47.4% 1.02× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.9% 41.6% 37.8% 1.10× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 37.1% 38.5% 37.2% 1.03× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 13.3% 12.3% 14.9% 0.83× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.7% 8.4% 10.4% 0.80× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.9% 85.6% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.1% 14.4% 13.1% 1.10× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.9% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.1% 26.0% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.2% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.0% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 12.7% 10.8% 9.30
Both score in both halves 5.0% 6.7% 14.86
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.3% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.7% 17.6% 5.68
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.4% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.6% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.9% 47.4% 47.9% 0.99× 2.11
4-6 goals 25.8% 26.4% 25.4% 1.04× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.4% 22.8% 25.6% 0.89× 4.38
7+ goals 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.12× 54.61
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 1 36.5% 36.0% 37.6% 0.96× 2.78
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 0 32.2% 33.8% 32.7% 1.03× 2.96
Akron Tolyatti to score exactly 2 20.7% 22.4% 18.8% 1.19× 4.47
Akron Tolyatti to score 3+ 10.7% 12.8% 11.2% 1.14× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to score exactly 1 33.2% 32.7% 35.2% 0.93× 3.06
Gazovik Orenburg to score exactly 2 25.3% 26.5% 24.3% 1.09× 3.77
Gazovik Orenburg to score exactly 0 21.8% 23.2% 22.1% 1.05× 4.30
Gazovik Orenburg to score 3+ 19.7% 18.9% 18.8% 1.01× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 44.0% 43.2% 2.32
Gazovik Orenburg leading at HT 34.6% 33.7% 2.97
Akron Tolyatti leading at HT 21.5% 20.1% 4.98
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg -1: 2 55.0% 52.1% 1.92
Gazovik Orenburg -1: 1 23.3% 23.6% 4.24
Gazovik Orenburg -1: X 21.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:1) 55.0% 51.2% 55.8% 0.92× 1.95
Gazovik Orenburg (0:1) 23.3% 24.3% 22.7% 1.07× 4.12
Draw (0:1) 21.8% 24.3% 21.7% 1.12× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:2) 76.7% 79.4% 77.3% 1.03× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.0% 11.0% 12.5% 0.88× 9.11
Gazovik Orenburg (0:2) 9.3% 7.7% 10.4% 0.74× 12.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:3) 90.7% 92.6% 89.6% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.3% 5.8% 5.9% 0.98× 17.18
Gazovik Orenburg (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 4.7% 0.50× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti (0:4) 97.0% 98.1% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 3.7% 0.33× 83.42
Gazovik Orenburg (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.98× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (1:0) 72.9% 72.6% 71.8% 1.01× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 15.9% 17.0% 17.0% 1.00× 5.87
Akron Tolyatti (1:0) 11.2% 12.8% 11.5% 1.12× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg (2:0) 88.8% 88.4% 88.5% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.7% 6.5% 7.4% 0.88× 15.48
Akron Tolyatti (2:0) 3.4% 2.3% 4.3% 0.53× 44.15
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.5% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 27.1% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.4% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to concede 67.8% 66.6% 67.3% 0.99× 1.50
Gazovik Orenburg clean sheet 32.2% 33.4% 32.7% 1.02× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg clean sheet in 1st half 63.5% 64.2% 1.56
Gazovik Orenburg to concede in 1st half 36.5% 35.8% 2.80
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg over 2.5 corners 86.9% 86.3% 1.16
Gazovik Orenburg over 3.5 corners 74.7% 71.9% 1.39
Gazovik Orenburg under 6.5 corners 67.8% 66.7% 1.50
Gazovik Orenburg over 4.5 corners 60.1% 62.3% 1.61
Gazovik Orenburg under 5.5 corners 54.7% 52.8% 1.90
Gazovik Orenburg over 5.5 corners 45.3% 47.2% 2.12
Gazovik Orenburg under 4.5 corners 39.9% 37.7% 2.65
Gazovik Orenburg over 6.5 corners 32.2% 33.3% 3.00
Gazovik Orenburg under 3.5 corners 25.3% 28.1% 3.56
Gazovik Orenburg under 2.5 corners 13.1% 13.7% 7.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg under 3.5 goals 93.1% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Gazovik Orenburg under 2.5 goals 80.3% 82.1% 81.2% 1.01× 1.22
Gazovik Orenburg over 0.5 goals 78.2% 77.8% 77.9% 1.00× 1.29
Gazovik Orenburg under 1.5 goals 55.0% 53.3% 57.1% 0.93× 1.88
Gazovik Orenburg over 1.5 goals 45.0% 46.7% 42.9% 1.09× 2.14
Gazovik Orenburg under 0.5 goals 21.8% 22.2% 22.1% 1.01× 4.50
Gazovik Orenburg over 2.5 goals 19.7% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.59
Gazovik Orenburg over 3.5 goals 6.9% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.92
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg under 1.5 in 1st half 86.0% 89.7% 1.12
Gazovik Orenburg over 0.5 in 1st half 48.1% 50.9% 1.97
Gazovik Orenburg under 0.5 in 1st half 51.9% 49.1% 2.04
Gazovik Orenburg over 1.5 in 1st half 14.0% 10.3% 9.68
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.8% 51.6% 49.6% 1.04× 1.94
Akron Tolyatti (home no bet) 49.2% 48.4% 50.4% 0.96× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg even goals 52.4% 50.6% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Gazovik Orenburg odd goals 47.6% 49.4% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.2% 32.3% 3.09
HT 1-0 21.4% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-1 14.8% 11.0% 9.13
HT 1-1 10.0% 10.9% 9.18
HT 2-0 7.1% 7.1% 14.05
Any other HT score 4.0% 2.3% 43.32
HT 0-2 3.4% 2.3% 43.36
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.3% 43.37
HT 1-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.45
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.3% 43.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg at HT / Gazovik Orenburg at FT 27.0% 26.8% 3.74
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.4% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Gazovik Orenburg at FT 15.7% 16.7% 5.97
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 14.2% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 10.9% 12.7% 7.90
Gazovik Orenburg at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.72
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.5% 28.77
Akron Tolyatti at HT / Gazovik Orenburg at FT 2.4% 3.5% 28.87
Gazovik Orenburg at HT / Akron Tolyatti at FT 2.0% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to score last 52.7% 52.0% 1.92
Akron Tolyatti to score last 39.1% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 8.2% 7.5% 13.26
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.8% 92.6% 1.08
Gazovik Orenburg to lead by 1 at any time 60.7% 61.2% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.6% 44.0% 2.28
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 1 at any time 45.0% 39.3% 2.54
Gazovik Orenburg to lead by 2 at any time 29.5% 25.5% 3.92
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 2 at any time 16.3% 14.9% 6.71
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.0% 14.9% 6.72
Gazovik Orenburg to lead by 3 at any time 11.4% 10.5% 9.57
Akron Tolyatti to lead by 3 at any time 4.7% 1.7% 59.74
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg most corners 63.1% 60.5% 1.65
Akron Tolyatti most corners 26.3% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 10.6% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.4% 87.4% 87.5% 1.00× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.7% 78.6% 79.6% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.7% 72.4% 73.0% 0.99× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.2% 72.4% 69.3% 1.04× 1.38
1-3 goals 64.1% 63.4% 66.1% 0.96× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.5% 63.4% 61.4% 1.03× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.9% 48.7% 47.9% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 47.7% 48.7% 46.6% 1.04× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.3% 43.6% 42.9% 1.01× 2.30
1-2 goals 42.2% 43.6% 44.8% 0.97× 2.30
3-4 goals 36.5% 39.1% 35.0% 1.12× 2.56
4-6 goals 25.8% 30.2% 25.4% 1.19× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.3% 24.5% 21.7% 1.13× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.2% 14.9% 11.9% 1.25× 6.73
7+ goals 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 1.56× 39.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg never behind 46.8% 56.5% 1.77
Akron Tolyatti never behind 31.1% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.3% 50.8% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.7% 49.2% 51.1% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.9% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.1% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.7% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 91.8% 92.3% 92.6% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.9% 87.6% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.6% 77.3% 74.4% 1.04× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 72.3% 72.5% 73.2% 0.99× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 50.4% 52.5% 51.9% 1.01× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 49.6% 47.5% 48.1% 0.99× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 27.7% 27.5% 26.8% 1.03× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.4% 22.7% 25.6% 0.89× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 13.1% 12.4% 13.3% 0.93× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 8.2% 7.7% 7.4% 1.05× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 5.3% 7.7% 5.3% 1.45× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.0% 97.2% 98.3% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.2% 92.5% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.7% 81.1% 84.6% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.0% 67.4% 65.3% 1.03× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 64.6% 62.1% 66.0% 0.94× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 35.4% 37.9% 34.0% 1.11× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 33.0% 32.6% 34.7% 0.94× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.3% 18.9% 15.4% 1.23× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.8% 7.5% 5.8% 1.30× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.0% 2.8% 1.7% 1.63× 36.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.9% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.4% 69.0% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.8% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.2% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.6% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.1% 10.9% 9.14
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.6% 79.8% 1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.3% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.7% 53.2% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.3% 46.8% 2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.7% 20.2% 4.94
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.4% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to score in both halves 82.0% 84.3% 1.19
Gazovik Orenburg not to score in both halves 72.1% 73.8% 1.36
Gazovik Orenburg to score in both halves 27.9% 26.2% 3.81
Akron Tolyatti to score in both halves 18.0% 15.7% 6.36
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.3% 54.0% 52.6% 1.03× 1.85
Only Gazovik Orenburg scores 24.0% 22.3% 25.6% 0.87× 4.48
Only Akron Tolyatti scores 13.6% 10.9% 14.9% 0.73× 9.14
Neither team scores 8.2% 7.2% 7.4% 0.98× 13.90
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.0% 25.0% 26.6% 0.94× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 22.6% 21.5% 1.05× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 16.2% 17.4% 18.4% 0.95× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 14.6% 12.1% 13.7% 0.88× 8.27
Exactly 0 goals 8.2% 7.6% 7.4% 1.04× 13.08
Exactly 5 goals 7.7% 7.6% 8.2% 0.93× 13.08
6 or more goals 5.3% 7.6% 5.3% 1.44× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.3% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.1% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 21.7% 23.1% 4.34
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to win both halves 94.2% 94.0% 1.06
Gazovik Orenburg not to win both halves 86.9% 87.9% 1.14
Gazovik Orenburg to win both halves 13.1% 12.1% 8.25
Akron Tolyatti to win both halves 5.8% 6.0% 16.65
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gazovik Orenburg to win either half 58.7% 59.5% 1.68
Akron Tolyatti to win neither half 58.1% 59.5% 1.68
Akron Tolyatti to win either half 41.9% 40.5% 2.47
Gazovik Orenburg to win neither half 41.3% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Akron Tolyatti not to win to nil 86.4% 88.2% 85.1% 1.04× 1.13
Gazovik Orenburg not to win to nil 76.0% 78.0% 74.4% 1.05× 1.28
Gazovik Orenburg to win to nil 24.0% 22.0% 25.6% 0.86× 4.55
Akron Tolyatti to win to nil 13.6% 11.8% 14.9% 0.79× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.9% 27.9% 27.8% 1.00× 3.59
Gazovik Orenburg by 1 21.8% 24.1% 21.7% 1.11× 4.14
Akron Tolyatti by 1 15.9% 16.9% 17.0% 1.00× 5.91
Gazovik Orenburg by 2 14.0% 11.8% 12.5% 0.95× 8.47
Gazovik Orenburg by 3+ 9.3% 7.3% 10.4% 0.70× 13.77
Akron Tolyatti by 2 7.7% 7.3% 7.4% 0.99× 13.78
Akron Tolyatti by 3+ 3.4% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 36.97
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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