Genoa v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.59 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
20.1%
Draw
30.7%
Juventus win
49.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDDWLDWW last 10
scored 12
from 19.4 xG
conceded 5
from 7.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.77–1.35 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.86–1.29 | 0-1 15% | 36% | 42% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 0.59 xGJuventus 1.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Juventus |
João Mário | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
 Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Carboni |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 40' |
Juventus |
Federico Gatti | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Jonathan Christian David | 0.75 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Juventus |
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Patrizio Masini |
| 47' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Leali |
| 48' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 54' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 57' |
Juventus |
Lloyd Kelly | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 59' |
Genoa |
Nicolae Stanciu | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikael Ellertsson |
| 60' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolae Stanciu |
| 72' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.19 | From Corner | — | Goal | Filip Kostic |
| 83' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Juventus |
Filip Kostic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolás González |
| 87' |
Juventus |
Nicolás González | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lloyd Kelly |
| 88' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Vásquez |
| 90' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 96' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Aarón Martín |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.35 |
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.15 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Mikael Ellertsson AMR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Nicolae Stanciu AML | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Valentín Carboni AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Morten Thorsby Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitinha Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Gatti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Kenan Yildiz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bremer DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francisco Conceição AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| João Mário DML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.19 | 0.04 |
| Teun Koopmeiners Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás González Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Weston McKennie Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |