Genoa v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 29 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.39
Set-piece xG
0.56 – 1.62
Goals − xG
-1.48 – -0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Genoa win
22.1%
Draw
28.2%
Lazio win
49.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.92–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.88–1.61 | 0-1 13% | 45% | 47% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Genoa 1.48 xGLazio 3.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Genoa attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Valentín Castellanos |
| 15' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 21' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 23' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Adam Marusic |
| 32' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Genoa |
Mikael Ellertsson | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 43' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 43' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Genoa |
Patrizio Masini | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Vitinha |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Vitinha |
| 62' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.65 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 62' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.96 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 72' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.60 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 74' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Brooke Norton-Cuffy |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Carboni |
| 80' |
Genoa |
Jeff Ekhator | 0.31 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 84' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Genoa |
Valentín Carboni | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolae Stanciu |
| 94' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Venturino | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikael Ellertsson AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Patrizio Masini DMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vitinha AML | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Valentín Carboni Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Jeff Ekhator Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Nicolae Stanciu Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.56 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Matteo Cancellieri AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.74 | 0.60 | 1.86 |
| Boulaye Dia AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Cataldi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 84 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.71 | 1.25 |
| Mario Gila DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Toma Basic DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Elseid Hysaj Sub | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 31 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Nuno Tavares Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Patric Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |