Genoa v Venezia — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 25 October 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2627

Serie A xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Genoa

10:00

Venezia

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 1,158h before kick-off

Genoa win

49.9%

model 48.0%

Draw

22.0%

model 24.7%

Venezia win

28.2%

model 27.3%

502228

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.7%
1-0 10.1%
2-1 9.4%
2-0 8.2%
0-1 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.5	52.4%	Under 2.5	47.6%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
Genoa 1+	80.1%	Genoa 2+	48.0%
Venezia 1+	68.5%	Venezia 2+	32.1%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

94/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 71%

73.6% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 2590 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 83%

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Genoa average 1.03 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Genoa have an estimated 49.9% win probability, against 28.2% for Venezia and 22.0% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.62 for Genoa and 1.16 for Venezia.

Why Genoa

At home Genoa average 1.03 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.0%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Venezia can win

Venezia carry the stronger rating, 1606 Elo against 1441.

Key players

Genoa's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Milutin Osmajic (0.30), Lorenzo Colombo (0.30), Vitinha (0.22). Venezia's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Akor Adams (0.34), Antoine Hainaut (0.34), John Yeboah (0.28).

Availability

1 of Genoa's top three contributors did not start their last match. 1 of Venezia's top three contributors did not start their last match. 55% of Venezia's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Genoa: 53% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces. Venezia: 60% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.43 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Genoa are the model's most likely outcome at 49.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.7%. Confidence 94/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WWLDDLLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 9.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.0 xG

Venezia are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.

WDLDWLLLLL last 10 scored 10 from 15.4 xG conceded 19 from 17.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	482527	1.62–1.16	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	472529	1.61–1.21	1-1 12%	54%	56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to win	51.2%	51.4%	39.4%	1.31×	1.95
Venezia to win	25.9%	27.9%	33.9%	0.82×	3.59
Draw	22.9%	24.5%	26.8%	0.91×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa & both teams score	26.8%	25.2%	17.0%	1.48×	3.97
Genoa & not both score	24.3%	21.9%	22.5%	0.97×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.3%	17.9%	18.7%	0.96×	5.58
Venezia & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	13.2%	1.01×	7.54
Venezia & not both score	11.4%	13.3%	20.9%	0.63×	7.55
Draw & not both score	4.7%	4.9%	8.2%	0.59×	20.54

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa & over 1.5	42.6%	40.3%	29.1%	1.39×	2.48
Genoa & over 2.5	34.8%	30.9%	22.5%	1.37×	3.24
Genoa & under 3.5	30.7%	30.9%	29.4%	1.05×	3.24
Genoa & over 3.5	20.5%	21.7%	10.1%	2.14×	4.62
Venezia & over 1.5	20.1%	21.7%	24.6%	0.88×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.3%	18.0%	18.7%	0.96×	5.56
Venezia & over 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	18.0%	1.00×	5.56
Venezia & under 3.5	17.4%	18.0%	26.6%	0.68×	5.56
Genoa & under 2.5	16.3%	18.0%	17.0%	1.06×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Venezia & under 2.5	9.4%	7.9%	16.1%	0.49×	12.69
Genoa & under 1.5	8.5%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.7%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Venezia & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	7.5%	1.05×	12.69
Venezia & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	9.5%	0.83×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	4.7%	4.8%	8.2%	0.58×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (1UP)	66.8%	69.9%	54.6%	1.28×	1.43
Venezia (1UP)	45.3%	43.1%	51.1%	0.84×	2.32

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (2UP)	51.2%	55.5%	41.0%	1.35×	1.80
Venezia (2UP)	25.9%	24.8%	36.5%	0.68×	4.04

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to win 2nd half	51.8%	52.1%	34.8%	1.50×	1.92
2nd half drawn	29.2%	26.3%	35.8%	0.74×	3.80
Venezia to win 2nd half	19.0%	19.1%	29.5%	0.65×	5.23

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (+2.5)	87.0%	88.5%	92.4%	0.96×	1.13
Genoa (+0.5)	74.1%	73.7%	66.1%	1.12×	1.36
Venezia (+1.5)	71.4%	73.7%	82.9%	0.89×	1.36
Genoa (-0.5)	51.2%	52.3%	39.4%	1.33×	1.91
Venezia (+0.5)	48.8%	47.7%	60.6%	0.79×	2.10
Genoa (-1.5)	28.6%	26.3%	17.1%	1.54×	3.80
Venezia (-0.5)	25.9%	26.3%	33.9%	0.77×	3.81
Genoa (-2.5)	13.0%	11.5%	7.6%	1.51×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to concede	83.9%	81.3%	71.0%	1.15×	1.23
Venezia clean sheet	16.1%	18.7%	29.0%	0.64×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia clean sheet in 1st half	58.5%	58.5%	58.9%	0.99×	1.71
Venezia to concede in 1st half	41.5%	41.5%	41.1%	1.01×	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 6.5 corners	86.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Venezia under 5.5 corners	77.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Venezia over 2.5 corners	68.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Venezia under 4.5 corners	65.0%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Venezia over 3.5 corners	50.7%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Venezia under 3.5 corners	49.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Venezia over 4.5 corners	35.0%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Venezia under 2.5 corners	31.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Venezia over 5.5 corners	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Venezia over 6.5 corners	13.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 3.5 goals	96.3%	97.5%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Venezia under 2.5 goals	87.1%	87.9%	88.4%	0.99×	1.14
Venezia over 0.5 goals	71.0%	71.9%	69.4%	1.04×	1.39
Venezia under 1.5 goals	64.9%	63.0%	65.4%	0.96×	1.59
Venezia over 1.5 goals	35.1%	37.0%	34.6%	1.07×	2.70
Venezia under 0.5 goals	29.0%	28.1%	30.6%	0.92×	3.56
Venezia over 2.5 goals	12.9%	12.1%	11.6%	1.04×	8.25
Venezia over 3.5 goals	3.7%	2.5%	2.9%	0.84×	40.68

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia under 1.5 in 1st half	88.5%	89.1%	90.1%	0.99×	1.12
Venezia under 0.5 in 1st half	56.0%	62.3%	58.9%	1.06×	1.61
Venezia over 0.5 in 1st half	44.0%	37.7%	41.1%	0.92×	2.65
Venezia over 1.5 in 1st half	11.5%	10.9%	9.9%	1.10×	9.18

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (away no bet)	69.1%	66.4%	59.5%	1.12×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	30.9%	33.6%	40.5%	0.83×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia even goals	54.2%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.89
Venezia odd goals	45.8%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	82.2%	82.9%	87.2%	0.95×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	17.8%	17.1%	12.8%	1.34×	5.85

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.8%	67.2%	59.6%	1.13×	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.2%	32.8%	40.4%	0.81×	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.3%	59.9%	52.8%	1.13×	1.67
Genoa to score 2+ in a row	45.2%	45.7%	31.1%	1.47×	2.19
Venezia to score 2+ in a row	25.1%	25.0%	27.6%	0.91×	4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.7%	19.6%	17.3%	1.13×	5.11
Genoa to score 3+ in a row	18.4%	16.4%	9.7%	1.68×	6.11
Venezia to score 3+ in a row	6.7%	5.6%	7.7%	0.73×	17.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa corners (+3.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Genoa corners (+2.5)	82.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Venezia corners (+3.5)	78.4%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Genoa corners (+1.5)	74.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Venezia corners (+2.5)	69.5%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Venezia corners (+1.5)	58.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Genoa corners (-1.5)	41.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Genoa corners (-2.5)	30.5%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Venezia corners (-1.5)	25.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Genoa corners (-3.5)	21.6%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Venezia corners (-2.5)	17.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Venezia corners (-3.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.3%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	26.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	20.0%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	85.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	80.0%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	72.6%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	63.6%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	57.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.3%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.7%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	36.4%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	27.4%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	20.0%	19.3%	—	—	5.19
Over 12.5 corners	14.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.87

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	11.9%	0.96×	8.73
1-0	8.5%	7.4%	10.4%	0.71×	13.48
2-1	9.6%	7.4%	9.2%	0.80×	13.48
1-2	6.5%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
2-0	7.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
0-1	5.8%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.48
2-2	6.0%	7.4%	6.1%	1.22×	13.48
3-1	5.9%	7.4%	3.0%	2.44×	13.48
0-0	4.7%	1.7%	8.2%	0.21×	58.46
3-0	4.7%	1.7%	3.4%	0.50×	58.46
0-2	3.6%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.47
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	3.3%	0.52×	58.48
0-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.69×	58.49
1-3	2.7%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.47
1-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.25×	58.49
2-3	2.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.48
2-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.49
3-2	3.6%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.47
3-3	1.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.93×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-0	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.48
4-1	2.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.50×	58.47
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	0.1%	13.51×	58.48
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.75×	58.49
Any other score	4.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.46

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia leading at HT (DNB)	52.5%	55.9%	50.0%	1.12×	1.79
Genoa leading at HT (DNB)	47.5%	44.1%	50.0%	0.88×	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa or Venezia (12)	77.1%	75.5%	73.2%	1.03×	1.32
Genoa or draw (1X)	74.1%	72.1%	66.1%	1.09×	1.39
Venezia or draw (X2)	48.8%	48.6%	60.6%	0.80×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia or draw at HT	73.3%	74.4%	72.5%	1.03×	1.35
Genoa or draw at HT	70.5%	74.2%	72.5%	1.02×	1.35
Genoa or Venezia at HT	56.2%	56.8%	54.8%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa or draw (1UP)	74.1%	80.2%	71.3%	1.13×	1.25
Venezia or draw (1UP)	48.8%	52.8%	66.3%	0.80×	1.89

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa or draw in 2nd half	81.0%	80.9%	70.5%	1.15×	1.24
Genoa or Venezia in 2nd half	70.8%	73.7%	64.2%	1.15×	1.36
Venezia or draw in 2nd half	48.2%	47.9%	65.2%	0.74×	2.09

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.2%	61.5%	64.3%	0.96×	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.8%	38.5%	35.7%	1.08×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (DNB)	66.4%	67.1%	53.7%	1.25×	1.49
Venezia (DNB)	33.6%	32.9%	46.3%	0.71×	3.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score first	56.8%	61.9%	47.6%	1.30×	1.62
Venezia to score first	38.5%	32.9%	44.3%	0.74×	3.04
No goal scored	4.7%	4.3%	8.2%	0.52×	23.16

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.5%	54.9%	48.6%	1.13×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.5%	45.1%	51.4%	0.88×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	49.0%	44.3%	36.8%	1.20×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	30.4%	34.3%	41.0%	0.84×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.3%	11.9%	1.04×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.1%	12.3%	10.5%	1.17×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	80.9%	83.0%	86.8%	0.96×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	19.1%	17.0%	13.2%	1.29×	5.89

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	65.1%	67.5%	74.8%	0.90×	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	34.9%	32.5%	25.2%	1.29×	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	53.2%	56.0%	63.2%	0.89×	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	28.5%	26.6%	20.4%	1.30×	3.77
Both score 1st half only	11.9%	10.7%	11.8%	0.91×	9.31
Both score in both halves	6.4%	6.8%	4.9%	1.37×	14.79

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.7%	82.4%	83.4%	0.99×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.3%	17.6%	16.6%	1.06×	5.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	57.6%	57.3%	51.9%	1.10×	1.75
A half without a goal	42.4%	42.7%	48.1%	0.89×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.3%	42.1%	48.0%	0.88×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.0%	30.8%	23.5%	1.31×	3.25
0-1 goals	19.0%	20.2%	27.8%	0.73×	4.95
7+ goals	3.6%	1.8%	0.9%	2.07×	54.42

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia to score exactly 1	35.9%	36.0%	34.9%	1.03×	2.78
Venezia to score exactly 0	29.0%	27.4%	30.6%	0.90×	3.65
Venezia to score exactly 2	22.2%	22.4%	23.0%	0.97×	4.46
Venezia to score 3+	12.9%	12.8%	11.6%	1.10×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score exactly 1	29.4%	26.5%	32.2%	0.83×	3.77
Genoa to score 3+	27.6%	26.5%	14.4%	1.84×	3.77
Genoa to score exactly 2	26.9%	26.5%	24.7%	1.08×	3.77
Genoa to score exactly 0	16.1%	18.9%	29.0%	0.65×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	43.8%	43.2%	45.2%	0.95×	2.32
Venezia leading at HT	29.6%	25.8%	27.5%	0.94×	3.88
Genoa leading at HT	26.7%	25.6%	27.5%	0.93×	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa -1: 2	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Genoa -1: 1	28.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Genoa -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:1)	48.8%	46.0%	60.6%	0.76×	2.18
Genoa (0:1)	28.6%	27.0%	17.1%	1.58×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.3%	22.4%	1.08×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:2)	71.4%	75.6%	82.9%	0.91×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	15.6%	15.3%	9.6%	1.59×	6.55
Genoa (0:2)	13.0%	11.0%	7.6%	1.44×	9.12

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:3)	87.0%	90.8%	92.4%	0.98×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.1%	5.8%	4.6%	1.28×	17.15
Genoa (0:3)	4.9%	2.4%	3.2%	0.75×	42.04

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (0:4)	95.1%	98.1%	96.8%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	3.3%	1.2%	2.3%	0.53×	83.29
Genoa (0:4)	1.5%	1.2%	1.0%	1.18×	83.50

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (1:0)	74.1%	72.6%	66.1%	1.10×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	15.3%	17.0%	19.9%	0.86×	5.88
Venezia (1:0)	10.6%	12.8%	14.2%	0.90×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa (2:0)	89.4%	88.4%	85.8%	1.03×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	7.2%	6.5%	8.5%	0.76×	15.49
Venezia (2:0)	3.4%	2.3%	5.8%	0.39×	44.15

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	56.7%	58.0%	46.6%	1.24×	1.73
Halves equal	21.9%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.15
1st half highest scoring	21.4%	24.1%	26.7%	0.90×	4.16

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to concede	71.0%	73.0%	69.4%	1.05×	1.37
Genoa clean sheet	29.0%	27.0%	30.6%	0.88×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa clean sheet in 1st half	56.0%	62.3%	58.9%	1.06×	1.61
Genoa to concede in 1st half	44.0%	37.7%	41.1%	0.92×	2.65

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa over 2.5 corners	77.4%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Genoa under 6.5 corners	77.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Genoa under 5.5 corners	66.5%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Genoa over 3.5 corners	62.2%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Genoa under 4.5 corners	53.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Genoa over 4.5 corners	47.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Genoa under 3.5 corners	37.8%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Genoa over 5.5 corners	33.5%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Genoa over 6.5 corners	22.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Genoa under 2.5 corners	22.6%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 3.5 goals	88.7%	87.3%	95.4%	0.91×	1.15
Genoa over 0.5 goals	83.9%	82.1%	71.0%	1.16×	1.22
Genoa under 2.5 goals	72.4%	74.2%	85.6%	0.87×	1.35
Genoa over 1.5 goals	54.5%	53.3%	39.0%	1.37×	1.88
Genoa under 1.5 goals	45.5%	46.7%	61.0%	0.77×	2.14
Genoa over 2.5 goals	27.6%	25.8%	14.4%	1.79×	3.87
Genoa under 0.5 goals	16.1%	17.9%	29.0%	0.62×	5.59
Genoa over 3.5 goals	11.3%	12.7%	4.6%	2.79×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa under 1.5 in 1st half	89.9%	89.9%	90.1%	1.00×	1.11
Genoa under 0.5 in 1st half	58.5%	58.1%	58.9%	0.99×	1.72
Genoa over 0.5 in 1st half	41.5%	41.9%	41.1%	1.02×	2.39
Genoa over 1.5 in 1st half	10.1%	10.1%	9.9%	1.03×	9.87

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia (home no bet)	53.0%	51.6%	55.8%	0.92×	1.94
Draw (home no bet)	47.0%	48.4%	44.2%	1.10×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa even goals	51.3%	50.6%	56.7%	0.89×	1.98
Genoa odd goals	48.7%	49.4%	43.3%	1.14×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	32.8%	32.3%	34.3%	0.94×	3.09
HT 0-1	19.0%	18.8%	18.5%	1.02×	5.33
HT 1-0	17.6%	18.7%	18.2%	1.03×	5.34
HT 1-1	10.2%	10.9%	10.5%	1.04×	9.18
HT 0-2	5.5%	7.1%	5.4%	1.31×	14.07
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	5.6%	0.42×	43.26
Any other HT score	3.8%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	43.33
HT 1-2	3.0%	2.3%	2.5%	0.91×	43.39
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	2.3%	1.01×	43.41
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	0.6%	3.63×	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Genoa at FT	22.7%	21.8%	15.8%	1.38×	4.58
Genoa at HT / Genoa at FT	22.5%	21.8%	21.3%	1.03×	4.59
Venezia at HT / Venezia at FT	16.5%	16.8%	19.2%	0.87×	5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.8%	12.7%	16.7%	0.76×	7.89
Draw at HT / Venezia at FT	8.3%	6.0%	12.9%	0.47×	16.64
Venezia at HT / Draw at FT	7.1%	6.0%	5.9%	1.01×	16.68
Venezia at HT / Genoa at FT	6.0%	6.0%	2.5%	2.36×	16.71
Genoa at HT / Draw at FT	3.1%	3.5%	4.4%	0.78×	28.84
Genoa at HT / Venezia at FT	1.1%	3.5%	2.0%	1.71×	28.92

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to score last	56.8%	56.5%	48.4%	1.17×	1.77
Venezia to score last	38.5%	38.6%	43.5%	0.89×	2.59
No goal scored	4.7%	4.3%	8.2%	0.52×	23.16

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.3%	95.6%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Genoa to lead by 1 at any time	66.8%	69.4%	54.6%	1.27×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.3%	50.7%	42.7%	1.19×	1.97
Venezia to lead by 1 at any time	45.3%	44.0%	51.1%	0.86×	2.28
Genoa to lead by 2 at any time	36.1%	34.8%	22.9%	1.52×	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.9%	19.6%	14.6%	1.34×	5.11
Venezia to lead by 2 at any time	16.6%	14.9%	20.1%	0.74×	6.71
Genoa to lead by 3 at any time	15.9%	14.9%	8.4%	1.78×	6.72
Venezia to lead by 3 at any time	5.0%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	59.48

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa most corners	52.6%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Venezia most corners	36.0%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.3%	87.4%	89.1%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.4%	78.6%	71.4%	1.10×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.8%	78.6%	80.6%	0.97×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.0%	72.4%	69.5%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.5%	63.4%	61.0%	1.04×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.7%	59.2%	67.6%	0.88×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.4%	59.2%	46.5%	1.27×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.1%	53.2%	44.6%	1.19×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.3%	43.6%	48.0%	0.91×	2.30
3-4 goals	39.6%	39.2%	36.1%	1.09×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.3%	39.1%	44.7%	0.88×	2.56
4-6 goals	33.0%	35.4%	23.5%	1.50×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.7%	30.2%	21.6%	1.40×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.9%	18.6%	10.5%	1.77×	5.37
7+ goals	3.6%	2.6%	0.9%	2.88×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa never behind	50.0%	61.7%	48.9%	1.26×	1.62
Venezia never behind	28.5%	30.1%	45.4%	0.66×	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	51.6%	0.98×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	48.4%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.4%	57.4%	56.8%	1.01×	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.6%	42.6%	43.2%	0.99×	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.0%	52.0%	51.4%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.0%	48.0%	48.6%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.3%	95.5%	91.8%	1.04×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	91.0%	92.3%	97.2%	0.95×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.0%	82.4%	72.2%	1.14×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	80.5%	82.4%	88.7%	0.93×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	63.3%	61.8%	75.7%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.1%	58.8%	47.2%	1.25×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.9%	41.2%	52.8%	0.78×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	36.7%	38.2%	24.3%	1.57×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	19.5%	17.6%	11.3%	1.56×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	19.0%	17.6%	27.8%	0.63×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.0%	7.7%	2.8%	2.78×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	4.7%	4.5%	8.2%	0.55×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.2%	97.2%	99.1%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.9%	86.8%	97.0%	0.89×	1.15
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.4%	75.9%	87.0%	0.87×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.7%	75.9%	62.9%	1.21×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	52.7%	51.8%	68.5%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	47.3%	48.2%	31.5%	1.53×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.3%	24.1%	37.1%	0.65×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.6%	24.1%	13.0%	1.86×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.1%	13.2%	3.0%	4.35×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.8%	2.8%	0.9%	3.07×	36.11

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	89.7%	89.1%	91.9%	0.97×	1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half	69.3%	69.0%	70.8%	0.98×	1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half	67.2%	69.0%	65.7%	1.05×	1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half	32.8%	31.0%	34.3%	0.90×	3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half	30.7%	31.0%	29.2%	1.06×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	10.3%	10.9%	8.1%	1.35×	9.14

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.7%	85.3%	78.0%	1.09×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.1%	67.6%	82.4%	0.82×	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.9%	54.9%	43.2%	1.27×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.1%	45.1%	56.8%	0.79×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.9%	32.4%	17.6%	1.84×	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.3%	14.7%	22.0%	0.67×	6.79

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to score in both halves	78.8%	78.3%	78.7%	0.99×	1.28
Genoa not to score in both halves	69.9%	70.6%	76.2%	0.93×	1.42
Genoa to score in both halves	30.1%	29.4%	23.8%	1.24×	3.40
Venezia to score in both halves	21.2%	21.7%	21.3%	1.02×	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.5%	58.4%	48.6%	1.20×	1.71
Only Genoa scores	24.3%	22.3%	22.5%	0.99×	4.48
Only Venezia scores	11.4%	10.9%	20.9%	0.52×	9.15
Neither team scores	4.7%	4.6%	8.2%	0.56×	21.79

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.9%	22.6%	25.1%	0.90×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.2%	17.4%	13.2%	1.32×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	14.3%	12.1%	19.7%	0.61×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.5%	12.1%	8.6%	1.40×	8.28
6 or more goals	9.0%	7.6%	2.8%	2.75×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	4.7%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.9%	53.4%	43.2%	1.24×	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.8%	29.8%	34.9%	0.85×	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.3%	14.5%	22.0%	0.66×	6.88

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win both halves	94.4%	94.0%	91.4%	1.03×	1.06
Genoa not to win both halves	86.2%	87.8%	90.3%	0.97×	1.14
Genoa to win both halves	13.8%	12.2%	9.7%	1.25×	8.23
Venezia to win both halves	5.6%	6.0%	8.6%	0.70×	16.66

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Genoa to win either half	64.7%	65.2%	52.5%	1.24×	1.54
Venezia to win neither half	57.1%	59.5%	51.6%	1.15×	1.68
Venezia to win either half	42.9%	40.5%	48.4%	0.84×	2.47
Genoa to win neither half	35.3%	34.8%	47.5%	0.73×	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Venezia not to win to nil	88.6%	88.2%	79.1%	1.12×	1.13
Genoa not to win to nil	75.7%	78.0%	77.5%	1.01×	1.28
Genoa to win to nil	24.3%	22.0%	22.5%	0.98×	4.55
Venezia to win to nil	11.4%	11.8%	20.9%	0.56×	8.50

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	22.9%	24.1%	26.8%	0.90×	4.14
Genoa by 1	22.6%	24.1%	22.4%	1.08×	4.14
Venezia by 1	15.3%	16.9%	19.9%	0.85×	5.91
Genoa by 2	15.6%	16.9%	9.6%	1.76×	5.91
Genoa by 3+	13.0%	11.8%	7.6%	1.55×	8.47
Venezia by 2	7.2%	7.3%	8.5%	0.86×	13.78
Venezia by 3+	3.4%	2.7%	5.8%	0.46×	36.97