Getafe v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 31 October 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 8
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 4
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
1.18 – 0.95
Goals − xG
+0.60 – -0.54
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
55.6%
Draw
25.8%
Girona win
18.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.52–0.75 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.39–0.90 | 1-0 14% | 40% | 45% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 1.40 xGGirona 1.54 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Getafe |
Coba da Costa | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 11' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
 Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 21' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Joel Roca |
| 28' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 42' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Getafe |
Alex Sancris | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Abdelkabir Abqar | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 55' |
Getafe |
Abdelkabir Abqar | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Diego Rico |
| 64' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 71' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.40 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Luis Milla |
| 75' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Lemar |
| 79' |
Girona |
Thomas Lemar | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mauro Arambarri |
| 85' |
Getafe |
Borja Mayoral | 0.56 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Alex Sancris |
| 93' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borja Mayoral FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Adrián Liso FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.06 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.40 | 0.12 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Coba da Costa ML | 46 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Mario Martín Sub | 44 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 44 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.00 |
| Yvan Neyou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Axel Witsel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Iván Martín MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Viktor Tsygankov MR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Joel Roca ML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Thomas Lemar Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.54 | 0.54 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |