Getafe v Racing Santander — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 6
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 5
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.09 – 0.80
Goals − xG
+0.02 – -1.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
40.5%
Draw
28.9%
Racing Santander win
30.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Racing Santander are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 4.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLWL last 4
scored 7
from 6.3 xG
conceded 8
from 4.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.16–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.98 xGRacing Santander 1.17 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Racing Santander attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 9' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 12' |
Getafe |
Andrés García | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Getafe |
Orel Mangala | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
 Racing Santander |
Sergio Canales | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jorge Salinas |
| 26' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 26' |
Racing Santander |
Manu Hernando | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 29' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 52' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 52' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Racing Santander |
Andrés Martín | 0.22 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iñigo Vicente |
| 60' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Johan Mojica |
| 61' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 66' |
Getafe |
Ramón Terrats | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Racing Santander |
Andrés Martín | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 70' |
Racing Santander |
Iñigo Vicente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
Racing Santander |
Andrés Martín | 0.74 | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 80' |
Getafe |
Enes Ünal | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enes Ünal FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Ramón Terrats MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0.12 | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Orel Mangala MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Zaid Romero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Saba Sazonov DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johan Mojica DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Francho Serrano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés García DMR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Sebastián Boselli Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borja Mayoral Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Risco Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Racing Santander
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Martín AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Manu Hernando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iñigo Vicente AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| Álvaro Mantilla DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Julen Agirrezabala GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jorge Salinas DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Gustavo Puerta DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sergio Canales AMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Asier Villalibre FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sergio Martínez DMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iván Martín Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Maguette Gueye Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yassir Zabiri Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Carlos Arana Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facu González Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |